。8 February 2019 EM Macro and Strategy Focusthe recent government formation. Retain long Oman 27s as well as long Oman 23s vs. Bahrain 23s. Figure 1: Best & Worst FX Performance Figure 2: Best & Worst Rates Performance 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% -0.8% USD/CLP USD/COP EUR/ILS EUR/KZT EUR/PLN USD/INR USD/MXN EUR/HUF Weekly Return (%) -19 -17 -9 -8 -2 -1 3 28 HUF BRL COP CZK CLP PLN MXN TRY Weekly 5Y IRSSpread Chg (bps) Source: Global Markets ResearchSource: Global Markets Research Page 2Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 8 February 2019 EM Macro and Strategy FocusTable Of Contents Top Trades...........4 Top Economic Releases..5 EM Global Strategy.6 EM foreign holdings update.......6 EM Flows - more inows into local assets......10 Latam Strategy......12 LatAm rates strategy update....12 Brazil's policy rate: patient for longer..16 CEEMEA Strategy.20 Local Markets Portfolio update – Our Top 5 Trades.....20 Turkey Local Markets - Foreign ow update....26 South African Fixed Income - switch into 10Y-15Y bonds.......29 Supply/Demand dynamics – recapping the week........30 Economics Focus..31 Asia.......31 CEEMEA32 Latam....35 Economics and Market Analytics.39 Value in EM Fixed Income: A model approach39 Economics and Markets Highlights.....41 Bond Auctions..42 Economic Releases.......43 All Open Trade Recommendations.......46 Recent Publications......47 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page 3 8 February 2019 EM Macro and Strategy FocusTop Trades CountryTrade NameInitiationLast ActionLast ActionDateEntryCurrentTargetStop 1CEE3Long EUR vs basket of HUF/PLN/CZK08Jan19Initiation08Jan19-0.14%5.00%-2.50% 2IsraelShort USD/ILS14Jan19Initiation14Jan193.663.633.563.72 3TurkeyShort USD/TRY21Jan19Chg Target/Stop01Feb195.355.255.055.40 1ArgentinaSell USD/ARS09Jan19Initiation37.4037.8436.2039.00 2Brazil / South AfricaBuy BRL/ZAR09Jan19Initiation3.753.673.933.62 3ChileSell USD/CLP08Jan19Chg Stop07Feb19681.00658.55650.00660.00 4ColombiaSell USD/COP08Jan19Chg Stop07Feb193200.003117.703060.003150.00 5Mexico / RussiaSell MXN/RUB09Jan19Initiation3.503.453.333.61 1Hungary2s10s IRS steepener03Jan19Chg Stop30Jan19130.00141.00190.00105.00 2Israel1Y1Y IRS receiver08Jan19Chg Target/Stop01Feb190.850.630.550.85 3Poland1Y1Y-2Y2Y IRS steepener09Jan19Initiation09Jan1927.0025.3860.000.00 4Turkey6m fwd 3m- 2Y XCCY flattener25Jan19Chg Stop06Feb1930.00-9.55-60.0060.00 1ArgentinaLong ARGDUO 2007Feb19Initiation96.6096.6099.5095.00 2BrazilReceive BRL Jan22 06Feb19Initiation7.717.796.807.95 3Chile3M2Y CLPCAM steepeners 09Jan19ChgStop07Feb1927.0031.0060.0020.00 4ColombiaLong COLTES 30s vs. Pay 10Y IBR Swap 09Jan19ChgStop07Feb1997.0093.2975.00100.00 5ColombiaReceive 3Y COP IBR Swap05Dec18ChgStop13Dec185.184.864.704.95 1Lebanon Switch from 25s to 23s24Jan19Initiation2.723.895.001.50 2OmanLong Oman 27s31Jan19Initiation90.5991.1394.0088.00 3Oman, BahrainOMAN 23s vs. BHRAIN 23s09Jan19Initiation0.940.810.301.20 4South Africa27s vs. 24s07Dec18Initiation66.0661.1745.0075.00 1ArgentinaSwitch from 28Ns to Discounts09Jan19Change target/stop31Jan1997.9475.6145.0080.00 2ArgentinaSwitch from EUR 47sto EUR Pars 07Nov18Change target/stop07Feb1999.4281.6040.0082.00 3ArgentinaSwitch from USD Pars to EUR Pars 28Sep18Change target/stop31Jan19146.74141.37100.00150.00 4Brazil47s vs. 28s07Dec18Initiation91.8680.8670.00105.00 Credit Trades EMEA LATAM FX Trades EMEA LATAM Rates Trades EMEA LATAM Page 4Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 。。。。。。