2018毕马威企业咨询 (中国) 有限公司 — 中国外商独资企业，是与瑞士实体 — 毕马威国际合作组织 (“毕马威国际”) 相关联的独立成员所网络中的成员。版权所有，不得转载。2018 KPMG Advisory (China) Limited, a wholly foreign owned enterprise in China and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMGInternational”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.The emergence and sustainability of new energy vehicles (NEVs)require adjustments in old vehicle platforms, which will take timefor customers to accept. Additionally, the development of autotechnology will drive NEVs to become a major trend. Originalequipment manufacturers (OEMs) need to figure out how tobalance NEV manufacturing costs with technological innovation inorder to lead a new round of automotive technology developmentand market share expansion. NEVs mainly refer to pure batteryelectric vehicles (BEV), plug-in electric vehicles (PHEV) and fuel cellvehicles (FCEVs). Most EVs use nickel-metal hydride (Ni-MH) batteries and lithium- ion batteries as power sources. Ni-MH batteries are durable,affordable, create less pollution, and can be mass produced. Inaddition, they are relatively cheaper to manufacture, while thetechnology behind it is more mature. As a result, large JapaneseOEMs tend to use them for their hybrid models. However, Ni-MH batteries have lower energy density than lithium- ion batteries, and are therefore not suitable for pure BEVs. Lithium-ion batteries, on the other hand, are high voltage andhave high energy density. Under the same weight conditions, thecapacity of lithium-ion batteries is 1.6 times higher although onlypart of their full potential are used. Lithium-ion batteries are morecommon in NEVs. The cathode materials used in lithium-ion batteries for mostinternational NEV models are lithium manganese oxide (LMO)and ternary (NCM/NCA), while Chinese NEVs mostly adopt lithiumiron phosphate (LFP) batteries. As at the end of September 2017,China has launched 4,981 EVs, with 3,147 (or 63 percent) usingLFP batteries, followed by ternary (19.7 percent) and LMO (11.1percent).1 To improve battery energy density, many Chinese car1. ‘Catalog of Vehicle Purchase Tax Exemptions on New Energy Vehicles (1-12 Batch)’, Ministry of Industry & Information Technology (MIIT), 2017 The China NEV technology roadmap: Emerging trends Battery technology, motors and costdevelopment 01New energy vehicle technology trends2018毕马威企业咨询 (中国) 有限公司 — 中国外商独资企业，是与瑞士实体 — 毕马威国际合作组织 (“毕马威国际”) 相关联的独立成员所网络中的成员。版权所有，不得转载。2018 KPMG Advisory (China) Limited, a wholly foreign owned enterprise in China and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMGInternational”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. manufacturers have adopted ternary lithium batteries for their EVmodels, including BAIC E Class, JAC Heyue and Chery eQ. Ternaryis the mainstream cathode material for NEV batteries. Major global power battery suppliers include Panasonic, AESC,LG Chemical and Samsung SDI. However, China has also emergedas a key battery supplier over the last decade. Companies such asBYD, Hefei Guoxuan, Ningde Era, TianKin Lishen Battery, Pride,China Aviation Lithium Battery Co., Ltd. and Wanxiang Group, areemerging and have achieved significant market share. BYD, forexample, is the largest LFP battery supplier in terms of capacity.According to its 2015-2020 technical plan, BYD is focusing onLiMnPO4, which has a battery energy density of around 150wh/kg.Other suppliers are switching from LFP to ternary-based batteries.According to the MIT's action plan to promote the automotivepower battery industry, China's lithium battery energy density2 willreach 300-350wh/kg by 2020, while the battery industry has madea conservative estimate of up to 250wh/kg. Barring any majortechnological breakthroughs, the improvement of lithium batteryperformance will mainly depend on material optimisation. Underthis assumption, China's lithium battery power energy density ispredicted to reach 320wh/kg by 2025. Meanwhile, there has been a rapid decline in the cost of lithiumbatteries, decreasing from more than RMB 3,000/kWh in 2011 toRMB 1,700/kWh in 2017. Market participants predict the price oflithium batteries is likely to fall below RMB 1,000/kWh by 2020. Theratio of cathode material, anode material, separator and electrolyteorganic solvent to the battery cost is 30:10:25:15.3 Cathode is themain price determinant as the costs of the other parts are hard toreduce. Permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSM, includingBLDCM), alternating current (AC) asynchronous motors and ACinduction motors (ACIM) are the mainstream motor types, withPMSM the most widely used. The rated power of local EV modelsis mostly between 20kw and 35kw. BYD’s Qin, a PHEV, has a ratedpower of 40kw, the highest among local models. Sports models,such as Tesla Model S, can reach 100kw. The power density of topEV models globally is between 3kw/kg and 6kw/kg.4 2.Source: ‘Promoting Automotive Power Battery Industry Development Action Plan’, Ministry of Industry & Information Technology (MIIT), February 20173&4. Source: 'China New Energy Vehicle Market Semi-annual Report', AutoForesight research, September 2017 02新能源汽车的技术发展趋势2018毕马威企业咨询 (中国) 有限公司 — 中国外商独资企业，是与瑞士实体 — 毕马威国际合作组织 (“毕马威国际”) 相关联的独立成员所网络中的成员。版权所有，不得转载。2018 KPMG Advisory (China) Limited, a wholly foreign owned enterprise in China and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMGInternational”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.The development of an EV platform hinges on technology andcosts. There tends to be three options: develop a new EV platform;cooperate to jointly develop new platforms; or transform anexisting internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) platform. Transforming an existing ICEV platform can lead to better costcontrol. However, there are limitations as the heavy battery packrequires a specific type of design. Since an ICEV platform wasnot designed to accommodate for a battery pack, there is limitedspace for its inclusion. This results in lower battery capacity andtherefore, shorter mileages. The battery pack in new EV platforms can be installed on thevehicle floor to increase battery capacity. This allows its weight tobe evenly distributed across the axle, while the vehicle would alsoenjoy a lower centre of gravity and more internal compartmentspace. However, the development of new platforms requires largefinancial investments. If sales are limited initially, it will take timefor companies to break even, which could hamper their financialperformances. This is why models produced using a new EVplatform are generally more expensive. Some manufacturers would team up to jointly develop and sharenew EV platforms in order to reduce costs. However, many OEMssuch as Tesla, Volkswagen, General Motors and Mercedes-Benzstill develop new platforms of their own.NEV platform development strategies 03New energy vehicle technology trends2018毕马威企业咨询 (中国) 有限公司 — 中国外商独资企业，是与瑞士实体 — 毕马威国际合作组织 (“毕马威国际”) 相关联的独立成员所网络中的成员。版权所有，不得转载。2018 KPMG Advisory (China) Limited, a wholly foreign owned enterprise in China and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMGInternational”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. BEVs & PHEVs: The importance of technology 5.OEM Average Fuel Consumption & NEV Credit Points Administration Method (Draft for Comments), MIIT，September 2017 6.‘Catalog of Vehicle Purchase Tax Exemptions on New Energy Vehicles (1-12 Batch)’, MIIT, 2017 Domestic policies tend to promote BEVs over PHEVs. The OEMAverage Fuel Consumption & NEV Credit Points AdministrationMethod (Draft for Comments) stipulates that BEVs will get two tosix points based on their driving range. All PHEVs, on the otherhand, only get two points.5This policy differential is down to a number of reasons: China’s BEVs, for example, have an average mileage of 150km-200km,while PHEVs can reach further distances.6 However, the energydensity of BEV lithium batteries is rapidly increasing. Combined withthe fact that its manufacturing costs is also decreasing, the averagemileage of BEVs is expected to reach about 400km within the nextfive years – comparable to PHEVs. On the other hand, PHEV’s inherent structure, which integratestwo sets of power systems from BEVs and ICEVs, meant they areexpensive and relatively heavy. All three forms of plug-in hybrids- parallel hybrids, series-parallel hybrids and series hybrids - havetheir own set of weaknesses: - When parallel hybrid vehicles are in hybrid mode, their fuelconsumption is high, while the motor cannot simultaneouslygenerate electricity and propel the wheel. - Series-parallel hybrid cars have two motors, leading toadded weight and a relatively complex control system. - In series hybrids, the engine and generator do notdirectly propel the wheel. This leads to power wastage. Inaddition, there is no significant reduction in weight, while fuelconsumption is high at high speeds.Once BEVs and ICEVs have similar mileages, PHEVs are likely tolose their attractiveness due to its costs, weight and more complexcontrol system. They are, for the time being, a transitional solutionto BEVs. This is a stark contrast to three years ago when most OEMs do nothave an NEV technology roadmap and were focusing on PHEVs.The situation has changed with BEVs now the main focus ofmanufacturers. For example, Volkswagen announced that by 2025,their NEV production will mostly be BEVs. Toyota has also recentlymoved to re-establish its de-commissioned EV department.04新能源汽车的技术发展趋势 。。。。。。