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瑞银_中国家电业:需求放缓能否抑制溢价?_2018.8.7_33页

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China Home Appliance Sector 7 August 2018abc 2Liao我们 China Home Appliance SectorUBS-S Research THESISMAPMost Favoured Least Favoured Little Swan, Midea, GreeRobamPIVOTAL QUESTIONS Q: In 2018-19, how will demand for appliances be affected by slowing property salesAfter a H217 housing sales slowdown and a fading uplift from shantytown resettlement programs, we expectsales for most appliances to keep cooling in 2018-19. In the next 12 months, categories significantly exposed toproperty sales (large kitchen appliances, A/Cs) could face more downside risk. Small appliances, washing machinesand refrigerators may be minimally affected. more Q: Will weaker demand affect the premiumisation of the appliance industry and brandsWe believe strong consumption upgrade momentum in tier 3/4 cities, a stable competitive landscape and productinnovation will continue to drive premiumisation in the home appliance industry, although some products are atrisk of becoming commoditized due to low technology/channel entry barriers and evolving consumer attitudes.Our survey shows domestic brands lead foreign ones in terms of product quality and channel services. more Q: How would China's home appliance businesses be affected by the China-US trade warWe believe China's appliance manufacturers have sufficient bargaining power to pass on higher costs caused bytariffs, as made-in-China appliances account for 50% of sales in America, representing such sizeable productioncapacity that the US would find it difficult to replace any time soon. Meanwhile, Chinese players can partiallyoffset the impact of tariffs by relocating capacity. In case of a full-scale China-US trade war, we would expect theindustry revenue impact to be less than 3%. moreUBS-S VIEW Given a poor medium-term demand outlook, we lower our forecasts for industry demand and major players'earnings for 2018-19. However, after a recent correction, we are less cautious on the appliance sector. We arebullish on refrigerator and washing machine leaders, as they are poised to benefit from replacement/upgradedemand (for washing machines) and an overall consumption upgrade. We are the most bearish on high-endkitchen appliance producers. Our top picks are Little Swan, Midea and Gree.EVIDENCE Our latest UBS Evidence Lab survey showed: 1) demand is likely to be poor for most large home appliances in thenext 12 months, while premiumisation remains intact due to product replacement/upgrades. 2) The consumptionupgrade in lower-tier cities is as strong as we expected, with residents surveyed in tier 3/4 cities having greaterbudgets than in tier 1/2 cities, although categories such as kitchen appliances have a mix of consumptionupgrades and downgrades. 3) China's leading appliance brands are comparable with high-end foreign ones interms of product quality/features, key consumer priorities.WHAT'S PRICED IN White-goods leaders have de-rated to a market cap-weighted forward PE of 10.5x, down from a YTD high of14x, mainly due to concerns about Q218 results, weak July retail data and escalated property tightening. Wethink the risk of valuation dropping further to 7-8x (as in the last property sales downcycle in 2013-14) is limited,given the industry's resilient growth drivers, a stable competitive landscape and leading players' reasonable,refined approach to inventory management.Figure 2: N12M replacement demand (tier 1/2 cities)Figure 3: Washing machines: Budgets vs. retail prices (2018)。。。。。。