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瑞银_美股_金融服务业_资本市场:核心问题与争论_2019.2.8_55页

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。 Brokers, Asset Managers, and Trust Banks 8 February 2019 2 Table of ContentsBrokersGoldman Sachs (GS).......... 3Morgan Stanley (MS)........ 6Discount BrokersCharles Schwab (SCHW)... 9TD Ameritrade (AMTD)... 11E*TRADE Financial (ETFC)........... 13Trust BanksBank of New York Mellon (BK).. 15Northern Trust (NTRS)..... 18State Street (STT) 21Asset ManagersBlackRock (BLK)... 24Franklin Resources (BEN) 28Invesco (IVZ)......... 30T. Rowe Price (TROW)..... 33WisdomTree (WETF)........ 35M&A BoutiquesEvercore Partners (EVR).. 37Greenhill & Co. (GHL)...... 39Houlihan Lokey (HLI)....... 40Lazard (LAZ)......... 41Moelis & Co. (MC) 43Alternative Asset ManagersApollo Global Management (APO)........ 44Ares Management (ARES).......... 46Carlyle Group (CG).......... 47Brokers, Asset Managers, and Trust Banks 8 February 2019 3Goldman Sachs (GS)Strategic review & 1MDBUnderstanding that you are in the process of reviewing the business, you indicatedon the 4Q earnings call that you are aware of the compression of the FICC industrywallet.What kinds of changes do you think you need to make to the FICCbusinessWhat kind of cost saves could you wring out if you choose to shrink itHow much capital could be freed up by shrinking it So you indicated that clients broadly have not had a negative reaction from the1MDB scandal, but what about clients in Asia specificallyWhat was theproportion of your revenues in Asia in the fourth quarter (historically it runs around15%)How does the uncertainty around the ultimate liability from 1MDB impact how youare thinking about capital returnsWhat is the magnitude of potential comp clawbacks from 1MDB What is theprocess around such a decisionWhy do you think the regulatory relief that was hoped for after the 2016 electionhas not translated into accelerating revenue growthIs some of that impact stillpendingIf so, what specifically I&L/MarcusGlobal equity markets were down 14% in the 4th quarter, yet you recognizednearly $1 bn in equity I&L gains, with half from marks and half from realizations. How did you not mark down your equity positions based upon the publicly tradedcomps selling off What is the valuation process for level 2 and level 3 assets inI&LIf your equity I&L book is not marked, why should we have confidence in yourTBV In 1Q16, marks led to zero equity revenue, why would it matter that publiclyheld equities are a smaller portion of that portfolio nowThe investment community seems to place less value on strength in I&L than inother businesses, what do you think they are missingAnd how do you think GScan adjust disclosure so investors can recognize the value of that business The mid-market and special situation lending (within I&L) seems to be largelybelow investment grade and secured with collateral, how is the credit risk in thatportfolio not a concern How do you have confidence in the quality of thecollateral What can you tell us about the collateral to improve confidenceHow should we think about reserves allocated to the corporate loan book in I&L What gives you confidence that the reserves are sufficientThere was a headline about Marcus moving into the WM business, will that impactreportingIf accurate, what drove the change Is the idea that all retail businesswill go into WMWhat have been the loss trends for Marcus unsecured lending and has there beenany difference in experience from one vintage to another How has underwritingevolved since launch Brokers, Asset Managers, and Trust Banks 8 February 2019 4It was reported you won the Apple card, when is that expected to shift toGoldmanAre details worked out and if so, what can you share Cards are ascale business, so is this just the first deal of manyDo you plan to use the Final(link) platform you recently purchased to manage the cards you issue So it has been reported that you are launching a deposit platform in Japan as wellas London and the US.What are your ultimate goals for the deposit franchise Doyou have an estimate for the duration of those deposits at this point Market conditions: IBDNot surprising to see the backlog pull back, how has the recent volatility impactedit Also, some have indicated trade tensions could begin to weigh on M&A if theydo not fade, do you have a different view M&A announcements have slowed two quarters in a row and your investmentbanking pipeline is down linked quarter… is this the beginning of a slowdown Has c-suite risk appetite changed from your perspectiveWhere do you think weare in the M&A cycle Why do you think US M&A volumes have struggled to getabove the LT average as a % of market cap this cycleWhat kind of an impact has the government shutdown had on investment bankingactivityIf it happens again, what impact do you anticipate Can the industry doanything about itThe share Goldman has been winning in DCM is impressive, how differentiated isthe revamped debt underwriting platform Are there other opportunities beyondthe DCM revenuesWhat specifically are you doing to ensure that these sharegains allow Goldman to broaden its relationships with corporate clientsMarket conditions: TradingWhile the environment is clearly better than 4Q, that was a low bar. What is yoursense of YTD trends in the trading businessAnd can the quarter be strong if thebanking calendar remains softWhat has been the impact of MIFID II one year inHas it been long enough tofully understand the implications on the European market Do you thinkunbundling commissions goes global If so, how long do you think it will takeWhy should the corporate trading business pick up We have heard of GS'sintention to focus on it before, so it seems confusing that the outcome would bemuch better this time, can you walk us through why the outcome will be betterand how your approach is different this time What will be the opportunity costfrom the shift in focusAfter the Dems took the House, should we still expect a moderating regulatoryapproach Does that mean your business is more aligned/impacted by electioncycles If so, how do you manage that and how does it impact your investmentdecisionsCapital/RegulationWhat are your preliminary thoughts on the CCAR scenarios for this year So what would change for you in the Fed's recent NPR on capital and liquidityrequirementsDoes this make it clear that regulatory relief for G-SIFIs is a bridge。。。。。。