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Alps Electric (6770 JP) (Outperform)8 Profit growth in FY3/20Damian Thong We retain a positive stance on Alps given sound fundamentals underpinning profit growth into FY3/20 – notably growing dual-OIS adoption.Approval of the share exchange scheme will be followed by the share buyback programme in Jan- Jun 2019.We maintain our Outperform rating and trim our target price to 3,350 from 3,500. OPEC+ Gets A Deal – Optimal Enough9 ASMPT (522 HK) (Downgrade to Underperform)10 Step (A-Share) (002527 CH) (Underperform)11 Sunny Optical (2382 HK) (Underperform)12 Tech Strategy v.4213 Xmas Gifts14 AEON Financial Service (8570 JP) (Outperform)15 Amada (6113 JP) (Initiating coverage with Underperform)16 DMG Mori (6141 JP) (Initiating coverage with Neutral)17 Fanuc (6954 JP) (Initiating coverage with Underperform)18 Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP) (Initiating coverage with Neutral) 19 Japan Technology20 Keyence (6861 JP) (Initiating coverage with Neutral)21 Nabtesco (6268 JP) (Upgrade to Outperform)22 SMC (6273 JP) (Initiating coverage with Neutral)23 THK (6481 JP) (Initiating coverage with Outperform)24 Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP) (Initiating coverage with Outperform)25 Douzone Bizon (012510 KS) (Outperform)26 Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) (Neutral)27 Sapura Energy Bhd (SAPE MK) (Outperform)28 2 Please refer to page 164 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our websitemacquarie/research/disclosures.10 December 2018 Japan/Global EQUITIES Japan FA coverage Note: initiating stocks highlighted in greenSource: FactSet, Macquarie Research, December 2018Inside1. Executive Summary 22. Valuation 63. Robots 153.2Chinese robots 284. Machine Tools 335. SPE-related Actuators 47Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP 60Nabtesco (6268 JP) 76THK (6481 JP) 85Fanuc (6954 JP) 99Amada (6113 JP) 112DMG Mori (6141 JP) 124SMC (6273 JP) 135Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP) 142Keyence (6861 JP) 155Analysts Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited Tomoki Takeshima +81 3 3512 7432tomoki.takeshima@macquarieKunio Sakaida +81 3 3512 7873kunio.sakaida@macquarieDamian Thong, CFA+81 3 3512 7877damian.thong@macquarie Macquarie Capital LimitedAllen Chang +852 3922 1136allen.chang@macquarieJin Guo +86 21 2412 9054jin.guo@macquarie Macquarie Capital Limited, Taiwan Securities BranchJeffrey Ohlweiler +886 2 2734 7512jeffrey.ohlweiler@macquarieJapan Factory AutomationExciting turning point in 2019. Bullish on robotsKey points We initiate coverage on eight stocks in Japan FA. Top picks: Yaskawa/Nabtesco We like robots, followed by SPE-related actuators, machine tools We cover eight Chinese local robot/FA companies. Pay close attention tothem as potential competitors for Japanese names We are at the turning point now. Robots to bottom out; machinetools peaking out just startedWe expect major differences in investment timing for the factory automation (FA)sector’s three sub-sectors (industrial robots, machine tools, and SPE-relatedactuators) in 2019 after a steep demand slowdown during 2018. Demand is likelyto recover in the order of industrial robots (Jan-Mar 2019), followed by SPE- related actuators and then machine tools.Bullish on robots: Top picks – Yaskawa (OP), Nabtesco (N-OP)We forecast +14% YoY growth in global industrial robot shipments in 2019, drivenby sharp expansion of demand in North American autos, staging a majorrecovery from the -1% in 2018. Given this trend, Yaskawa and Nabtesco are ourtop picks in the sector. We expect Yaskawa’s robot segment OP to expand 24%to 21.3bn in FY2/20 from 17.1bn (-19%). We also think Nabtesco’s CMPsegment OP is likely to rise sharply by 26% to 24.9bn in FY12/19. Macquarie China team’s edge: covers 8 local robot/FA companiesOur Greater China technology analysts Allen Chang and Jin Guo cover eightChinese local companies in robots/FA. The six covered robot companies’ salesrose at +50% CAGRs (2015-2018). We pay close attention to them as potentialcompetitors for our Japanese names, including Yaskawa/Fanuc. Our team see aslowdown in Chinese robot shipment growth at +16% in 2018/2019 from +59% in2017. However, they remains bullish on the LT demand outlook [Automation andRobot].Bearish on machine tools (MT): Fanuc (UP), Amada Holdings (UP)We expect a further slip in MT orders from -5% in FY3/19 to -20% in FY3/20 dueto additional weakening of production activity in China and shrinkage ofIndustrials’ capex. China’s MT demand is likely to slow to a 40-50% decline bySept. 2019, and Japan’s orders, which could post a decline for the first time in 21months in November, are likely to drop sharply to 20-30% setbacks by Oct. 2019.In this context, we forecast decline in Fanuc’s FA sales of 24% to 158bn androbomachine sales of 15% to 99bn and a steep 23% drop in OP to 121bn inFY3/20. We expect Amada HD’s FY3/20 OP to decline by 19% to 35.1bn.SPE-related actuators – entry in July-Sept: Yaskawa (OP), THK (OP)We forecast a 10% YoY decline in semiconductor production equipment sales to$56.5bn in 2019 (Damian Thong). For example, we expect Tokyo Electron’sSPE sales to decline 29% YoY in 1H FY3/20 (Apr-Sep 2019) but recover with a24% gain in 2H FY3/20 (Oct 2019 to Mar 2020). We thus project restoration ofpositive growth in Yaskawa Electric’s AC servo business sales in 2H FY2/20 (Sep2019 to Feb 2020) with a 20% gain. As a result, motion control segment OP islikely to decline 14% to 39.4bn in FY2/19, undershooting guidance of 41bn (- 11%), and recover with a 13% increase to 44.6bn in FY2/20. We also anticipatesales recovery for THK from 4Q FY12/19, a 10% decline in FY12/19 OP to45.5bn. PriceTPTPUpside/4-DecUpdatedPreviousDownside 6113AmadaUP1,1881,000--16%6141DMG MoriN1,5591,750-+12% 6268NabtescoOP2,9683,7002,800+25%6273SMCN38,58041,000-+6% 6324Harmonic Drive SystemsN4,0953,700--10%6481THKOP2,6293,600-+37% 6506YaskawaOP3,5304,200-+19%6861KeyenceN61,42061,000--1% 6954FANUCUP18,59014,000--25% CodeCompanyRating 3 Please refer to page 4 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our websitemacquarie/research/disclosures.10 December 2018 Greater China EQUITIES Robot coverageCompany Ticker RecMkt capUS$m Price TPUpside (%)Hikvision 002415 CH O38,853 28.81 30.04%FII 601138 CH O34,830 12.10 14.016%Hon Hai 2317 TT O33,150 73.40 110.050% Delta 2308 TT O11,001 130.00 147.013%Inovance 300124 CH O5,424 22.30 30.035% Dahua 002236 CH N6,055 13.82 21.052%Han’s Laser 002008 CH N5,419 34.75 37.06% Asustek 2357 TT U5,311 219.50 213.0-3%Siasun 300024 CH N3,220 14.12 15.06% Hiwin 2049 TT O2,526 258.00 429.066%AirTAC 1590 TT O2,192 356.00 355.00%Chroma ATE 2360 TT O1,804 133.00 155.017% Everwin 300115 CH N1,157 8.70 8.92%Estun 002747 CH N1,159 9.46 10.06% INVT 002334 CH N538 4.88 4.6-6%Step 002527 CH U592 6.53 4.0-39%Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, December 2018.Prices as of Dec 5, 2018. Analysts Macquarie Capital Limited Allen Chang +852 3922 1136allen.chang@macquarieJin Guo +86 21 2412 9054jin.guo@macquarieAllen Yuan +86 21 2412 9009allen.yuan@macquarieVerena Jeng +852 3922 3766verena.jeng@macquarieHeidi Leung +852 3922 3783heidi.leung@macquarieFiona Liu +852 3922 1368fiona.liu@macquarieAutomation and RobotChina: soft demand outlook in 2019Key points China’s automation and Robot demand softened in 2018, and we expectdemand growth to continue to be weak in 2019 due to soft macro growth. While China and the US agreed to negotiate on tariffs, the tension is notresolved permanently; uncertainties could still pressure Robot demand.We lowered our 2018/19E Robot shipment estimates by 10k units eachyear, implying 16%/16%/24% shipment growth in 2018/19/20E.Event Our LT positive view on China’s rising automation and Robot demand hasn’tchanged. We are, however, more cautious in the near term and expect a softdemand picture in 2019 due to a challenging macro environment. Indicatorssuch as PMI, industrial operation value output, and Robot production allpoint to a dismal outlook. While China and the US have agreed to postponenew tariffs and negotiate to remove trade war issues, tensions are notresolved permanently and uncertainties of negotiation could still weigh onRobot end-customers’ business confidence. Therefore, we lowered our2018/19E shipment forecast by 10k units in each year to 160k/185k units,implying 16%/16%/24% shipment growth in 2018/19/20E (Fig 1~2).Impact China Robot production growth dropped to negative territory; PMI edgedlower further to 50% in Nov. China’s monthly Robot production growth (Fig3) dropped to -16%/ -3% in Sep/ Oct 2018 (NBS data) vs. 103%/64% inSep/Oct 2017. Manufacturing PMI declined to 50% in Nov (Fig 4). The growthrate of Japan’s net new orders for machine tools from China dived intonegative territory since March 2018 (Fig 5). All macro indicators are pointing toa sluggish Robot outlook with no sign of a structural recovery on the horizon.We expect the uncertainties of China-US negotiations will continue to limitRobot demand in the near term. Soft outlook in key end markets capex: automobile and electronics are thetwo biggest end markets for Robots, accounting for 33% and 32% of Robotdemand in 2017, but neither sector is likely to contribute strong Robot demandin 2019. We expect global smartphone shipments to decline by 1% YoY in2019E (link, Smartphone Tracker v.15), auto sector capex growth has alsoslowed down in 2018 (Fig 6) and our China auto analyst Allen Yuan expectsa slowdown in overall vehicle capacity expansion due to aggressive capexpreviously and tightened regulations to limit further capex expansion forinternal combustion engines (Fig 7). We are cautious on Chinese automation/Robot names: we are positive onthe LT prospects of high-quality Chinese automation and Robot makers suchas Inovance, Estun, and Han’s Laser, but we do see ST headwinds forInovance (macro slowdown for automation, subsidy cut for EV), Siasun andEstun (demanding valuation) and Han’s Laser (dragged down by weaksmartphones).Outlook Key automation/ robot plays: Siasun, Inovance, Estun, STEP, INVT, HonHai, FII, Everwin, Hikvision, Dahua, Han’s Laser, Chroma, AirTAC, Delta,Hiwin, and Asustek. 4 。。。。。。