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麦格理_亚太地区_宏观策略_亚太宏观要闻_2018.11.28_30页

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BGF Retail (282330 KS) (Outperform)14 Century Pacific Food (CNPF PM) (Outperform)15 Emperador Inc (EMP PM) (Neutral)16 The Jardine Group17 Jollibee Foods (JFC PM) (Underperform)18 Petronas Dagangan (PETD MK) (Neutral)19 Puregold Price Club (PGOLD PM) (Outperform)20 Robinsons Retail Holdings (RRHI PM) (Outperform)21 San Miguel Food & Beverage (FB PM) (Neutral)22 Shakey's Pizza Asia Ventures (PIZZA PM) (Outperform)23 Thai banks24 Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) (Neutral)25 Universal Robina (URC PM) (Neutral)26 Wilcon Depot (WLCON PM) (Outperform)27 2 Please refer to page 4 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our websitemacquarie/research/disclosures.27 November 2018 Hong Kong EQUITIES700 HK OutperformPrice (at 15:40, 26 Nov 2018 GMT)HK$298.00Valuation HK$ 513.00- Sum of Parts 12-month targetHK$ 513.00Upside/Downside %+72.1 12-month TSR%+72.6 Volatility Index MediumGICS sector Media &EntertainmentMarket cap HK$bn 2,837Market cap US$m 362,62230-day avg turnoverUS$m 1,019.7Number shares on issue m 9,520Investment fundamentalsYear end 31 Dec 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020ERevenue bn 237.8 314.3 436.0 568.4EBIT bn 90.3 100.7 113.8 144.4EBIT growth % 60.9 11.5 13.0 26.8Reported profit bn 71.5 81.5 90.3 115.2Adjusted profit bn 65.1 78.9 98.9 125.6EPS rep Rmb 7.51 8.53 9.41 11.96EPS adj Rmb 6.83 8.24 10.31 13.04EPS adj growth % 42.7 20.6 25.0 26.5PER adj x 38.7 32.1 25.7 20.3Total DPS Rmb 0.74 0.89 1.11 1.41Total div yield % 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5ROE % 28.1 25.0 25.1 25.7Net debt/equity % 3.5 -13.9 -28.4 -41.4 P/BV x 9.1 7.2 5.8 4.7700 HK rel HSI performance, & rec historyNote: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2018 (all figures in Rmb unless noted, TP in HKD) Tencent (700 HK) - Solid quarter amid macrouncertainty Tencent (700 HK) - Get ready for theIndustrial Internet era China Internet, Media and Education -Buying opportunity in regulated internetAnalysts Macquarie Capital LimitedWendy Huang, CFA+852 3922 3378wendy.huang@macquarieTencent (700 HK)Path to diversified revenue streamsKey pointsWe hosted a management NDR for four days in HK and Australia. Advertising and cloud are taking off to become the structural growth drivers. We retain our view that game approval relaxation is around the corner and Tencent will benefit from industry consolidation as a role model. EventManagement shared a balanced view on its path to achieve a sustainable long term growth in a more regulated environment with mutiple structural drivers such as advertising, cloud, internet finance and mini program. Notably, online game accounted for only 32% of revenue in 3Q18, compared to 59% three years ago. With the improving margin in video ads and continuing investment in cloud, cloud shall replace video to become the largest margin drag in 2019. ImpactAdvertising: outperformed the peers, more potentials ahead. Video advertising revenue increased 34% yoy, compared to a 4% yoy decline in its peer iQiyi. As to Weixin advertising, its ad load was only 2 ads per day, less than 1/5 that of FB or Instagram’s level. While management acknowledges that China may never reach the same level as the US, the gap shall narrow. In addition, Tencent has much more broader advertising assets, including browser, app store and short video apps. Management also views its advertising traffic under-monetised even compared to Chinese peers such as BABA and Baidu, as it captures only 13% ad revenue share on the back of 47% time spent share. Looking into 2019, management sees the increase in content cost to moderate and the video ads margin to improve. Mini Programs monetisation kicks off.Tencent shares 50% of mini programs revenue with content producers including game developers under a certain threshold and tiers up beyond threshold. Advertising has become No.1 contributor to miniprogram revenue since its launch in 2Q18, followed by payment from transaction-based online and offline partners. Miniprogram is well adopted in categories such as transport, retail, restaurants and travel services, with recently listed Pingduoduo (PDD.US) and TongCheng(0780.HK) setting the role models. Game: adapting into a new norm. Tencent has been able to replenish its pipeline with 15 approved games, among which, mobile DNF, JX III are highly anticipated. We believe recent success of Red Alert OL and Naruto online shall help 4Q18 game revenue. Management said minors contributed only single digits of its game revenue and sees China game market revenue to grow at +20% in 2019 with leaders like Tencent and NetEase continuing to gain share. Earnings and target price revisionNo change. Price catalyst12-month price target: HK$513.00 based on a Sum of Parts methodology. Catalyst: Tencent music listing, game approval relaxation Action and recommendationWe gained more confidence post NDR and reiterate Tencent as our top pick in the China internet space.3 Please refer to page 90 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our websitemacquarie/research/disclosures. 27 November 2018 Philippines EQUITIES InsideFinancial condition has taken a hit 3Outlook on income is stable; selective onspending 5Assessing the competitive landscape 14E-commerce – sustaining its momentum 21Elections – potentially providing a temporaryuplift 22Preference for PH Retailers 25Appendix – Key macro data and charts 30Puregold Price Club (PGOLD PM)34Wilcon Depot (WLCON PM) 40Robinsons Retail Holdings (RRHI PM) 46Century Pacific Food (CNPF PM)53Universal Robina (URC PM) 59San Miguel Food & Beverage (FB PM) 66Emperador Inc (EMP PM) 72Shakey's Pizza Asia Ventures (PIZZA PM) 78Jollibee Foods (JFC PM) 84Distribution of consumer survey respondentsby income segment Based on 713 respondentsSource: Macquarie Research, November 2018 PEG of PH consumer/retail companies underour coverageBased on 2018E PE and 2018E-20E net profit CAGRSource: Datastream, Macquarie Research, November2018 Analysts Macquarie Capital Securities (Philippines) Inc. Karisa Magpayo+63 2 857 0899karisa.magpayo@macquariePH: Pulse of the consumerCautious outlook persistsKey points We conducted our seventh proprietary consumer survey in Sep-Oct 2018. While outlook on income is stable, consumers are selective on spending. We prefer retailers PGOLD, WLCON and RRHI.The 7th instalment of our proprietary consumer survey (Sep-Oct 2018) revealsthat consumers remain cautious, as evidenced by their cost-conscious behaviourand selective spending preferences. In this backdrop, we believe retailers areless vulnerable. We are overweight Retail, and neutral on F&B and Restaurants.Stable income outlook, selective on spending. An increasing percentage ofconsumers believe their income is not sufficient and that their financial conditionhas worsened, which could be due to inflation (averaging 5.1% in 10M18 vs 2.9%in 2017). While income outlook is largely stable, consumers are being selectivewith their spending for the next six months. They are prioritizing staples oversmall-ticket discretionary items. Affordability considerations are also quiteapparent in where and what consumers buy. Competitive pressures remain, with intensity the highest for F&B companies.With consumer demand seemingly constrained, stiff competition is an addedchallenge for F&B companies.Election-related spending could provide some uplift. Election-relatedspending arising from the mid-term elections in May 2019 could provide someboost to domestic consumption. As in the last elections (May 2016 presidentialelections), select companies markedly benefitted from election-related spendingvia robust topline growth (PGOLD, RRHI, FB, JFC) picks: PGOLD, WLCON and RRHI. We favour retailers on intact growth(2017-20E earnings CAGR of ~12% driven by continued store networkexpansion, steady SSSG and margin improvement), solid fundamentals (healthycash flow stream, low gearing, improving ROEs), and at