。2 savills/research Asia Paci c Investment Quarterly 3 5 6 2 *Associate Ofce 2 18OfcesAu stra lia & New Zeala nd 47Ofces Asia Pacic AustraliaAdelaide BrisbaneCanberra Gold CoastGordon LindeldMelbourne Notting HillParramatta PerthRoseville St IvesSunshine Coast SydneyTurramurra ChinaBeijing ChengduChongqing DalianGuangzhou HangzhouNanjing ShanghaiShenyang Shenzhen Tianjin WuhanXiamen Xi’anZhuhai TaiwanTaichung Taipei (2) ThailandBangkok VietnamDa nang HanoiHo Chi Minh City Hong KongCentral (2) Taikoo Shing (2)Tsim Sha Tsui IndiaBangalore MumbaiGurgaon IndonesiaJakarta New ZealandAuckland Christchurch JapanTokyo MacauMacau SingaporeSingapore (3) South KoreaSeoul MalaysiaJohor Bahru Kuala LumpurPenang CambodiaPhnom Penh * PhilippinesMakati City * Bonifacio Global City *Savills is a leading global real estateservice provider listed on the LondonStock Exchange. The company,established in 1855, has a rich heritagewith unrivalled growth. The companynow has over 600 oces and associatesthroughout the Americas, Europe, AsiaPaci c, Africa and the Middle East. In Asia Paci c, Savills has 65 regionaloces comprising over25,000 sta .Asia Paci c markets include Australia,China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia,Japan, Macau, Malaysia, New Zealand,Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan,Thailand and Viet Nam. Savills providesa comprehensive range of advisoryand professional property servicesto developers, owners, tenants andinvestors.These include consultancy services,facilities management, space planning,corporate real estate services, propertymanagement, leasing, valuation andsales in all key segments of commercial,residential, industrial, retail, investmentand hotel property. A unique combination of sectorknowledge and entrepreneurialairgives clients access to real estateexpertise of the highest calibre. Weare regarded as an innovative-thinkingorganisation supported by excellentnegotiating skills. Savills chooses tofocus on a de ned set of clients, o eringa premium service to organisationsand individuals with whom we share acommon goal.Savills is synonymous with a high- quality service o ering and a premiumbrand, taking a long-term view ofreal estate and investing in strategicrelationships. Asia Paci c Network 3 Asia Paci c Investment Quarterly Content 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Australia China (Northern) - Beijing China (Northern) - Tianjin China (Western) - Chengdu China (Southern) - Guangzhou China (Southern) - Shenzhen China (Eastern) - Shanghai Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Macau Malaysia New Zealand Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Viet Nam Major transactions Q4 2018 4 savills/research Asia Paci c Investment Quarterly Australia Shrabastee Mallik Director Research & Consultancy +61 2 8215 8880 smallik@savills.au Paul Craig CEO +61 2 8215 8888 pcraig@savills.au Australian’s commercial property sector continued to recordnotable capital value growth with ongoing yield compressionrecorded across all non-residential property classes, overthe last quarter of 2018, as investor appetite remained asstrong as ever. Much of the conversation over 2018 revolvedaround how much longer the yield compression cycle acrossAustralian non-residential property would last, particularlyfor the oce markets of Sydney CBD and Melbourne CBD.However, total sales volumes remained strong, with AUD$29.75billion of oce, industrial and retail assets transacting in2018. Transaction volumes in the oce sector continued todominate, with total volumes in Q4/2018 being boosted bycommercial property fund manager Charter Hall’s purchase oftwo oce buildings in Sydney for AUD$804 million, just beforethe end of the year. Total returns in the oce sector continued to be boostedby capital value growth, with total returns recorded at 14.4%in the 12 months to September 2018 (latest available fromMSCI / IPD). The Sydney CBD and fringe markets drove thisperformance with returns recorded at 18.0% in Parramattaand 17.1% in Sydney CBD. Positively, total returns in BrisbaneCBD and Perth CBD continued their upward trend, returning9.8% and 8.7%. In the industrial sector, total returns moderatedsomewhat in the September quarter, returning 11.6% in the12 months to September 2018, though all markets nationallyperformed well above their long term CAGRs. The proliferationof ecommerce in Australia is driving the industrial sector’soutperformance in the capital cities, with growth in theecommerce industry (which is still in its infancy, and willlikely see aggressive growth over the short to medium term)having a positiveow on e ect to industrial demand. Rising global bond yields over 2018 saw the conversationturning to what this will mean for real estate yields,particularly in Australia, where domestic monetary policyremains at odds with our developed peers. Rising global yieldscoupled with strong economic fundamentals in Australiahas seen recent swap market forecasts pointing to interestrates rising sooner than expected. Looking at the e ect oncommercial property markets, sharp upward revisions ofthe cash rate (and thus increasing wholesale funding costs)may limit valuation uplift, as the premium to book valuespotentially being eroded (particularly as recent sales evidencehave driven up book values). Whilst Australia’s appeal as aprime investment destination, particularly for direct property,remains strong, a less accommodative monetary policy maymean a tempering of demand for Australian commercialproperty assets. Whilst these concerns are valid, yields oncommercial properties are still enjoying a healthy spread tofunding costs. We believe that interest rates will have to risemore than the 25 basis points over the next 12 months forthere to be a signi cantly detrimental impact on demand forAustralian commercial property, particularly with economicfundamentals the strongest they have been since the GlobalFinancial Crisis. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 20032003200420042005200520062006200720072008200820092009201020102011201120122012201320132014201420152015201620162017201720182018 DecemberDecember Office SalesOffice SalesIndustrial SalesIndustrial SalesRetail SalesRetail Sales AU D B ILL ION AU D B ILL ION Australia Property Sales, December 2003 to December 2018 Major Investment Transactions, Q4/2018 Source Savills Research & Consultancy Source Savills Research & Consultancy PROPERTYLOCATIONPRICEBUYERUSAGE 10 & 12 Shelley StreetSydney, NSWAUD804.0 mil/US$578.9 milCharter HallOfce 60 Margaret StreetSydney, NSWAUD420.0 mil/US$302.4 milBlackstoneOfce 2 The EsplanadePerth, WAAUD326.1 mil/US$234.8 milGICOfce 61 Mary StreetBrisbane,QLDAUD275.0 mil/US$198.0 milCharter HallOfce 100 Skyring TceNewstead,QLDAUD250.0 mil/US$180.0 milGrowthpointPropertiesOfce 。。。。。。