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瑞信_全球_股票策略_全球股市策略:风险何在?_2019.2.11_22页

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。 0 5 10 15 20 25 0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0% Economists' 2020 US real GDP growth estimate Global Equity Strategy 2There is a lot of uncertainty if we look at the Economic Policy Uncertainty index or dispersion ofearnings estimates, but the sell side is optimistic within a tight range. 68% of economists believe USGDP growth will be at or above trend in 2020, 88% believe equities will rise and 91% believe bondyields will rise. Is this consistent with as dovish a Fed as the markets assume3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 201420152016201720182019 S&P 500 12m fwd EPS dispersion 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 19971999200120032005200720102012201420162018 World Economic Policy Uncertainty index 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Down 5%+Down 0-5%Up 0-5%Up 5-10%Up 10-15%Up 15%+ Sell-side strategists end-19 price target for S&P 500, from current level of 2731 3/4 of sell-side strategists are forecasting positive S&P500 returns for 2019 of more than 5%68% of economists still expect the US economy to growat or above its long-term trend (1.8%) in 2020 Earnings dispersion is high (the variance of earningsestimates around the mean)Economic uncertainty has picked up significantly usingthe WEP Uncertainty IndexSource: Refinitiv, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Credit Suisse research-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 201120122014201520172018 China manufacturing PMI new order MSCI EM rel to the world, 3m change %, in dollar terms, RHS 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 2014201620172019 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 European mining rel market, 5 month lag China manufacturing PMI new orders, -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 201020122013201420152016201720182019 China car sale y/y, by volume German autos relative to the European market, 6m/6m % change +5% Y/Y forecast fromCS China autosteam Global Equity Strategy 3China was, unsurprisingly, the key focus. There was a general consensus that China policy will become moreaggressive and PMIs will turn around in Q2. The worry is that the stocks seem to have reflected this if we look atmining, German autos (now discounting our analysts’ forecasts of 5%) or emerging markets. We need to see creditgrowth increase and much more fiscal stimulus (which is a quarter of 2015 levels and tenth of 2008/09 levels).Mining and China PMIs have decoupledCredit growth that leads IP has yet to turnGerman autos are discounting an increase in China car salesEM discounting rise in China PMIsSource: Refinitiv, Credit Suisse research Global Equity Strategy 4Interestingly, since mid-2018, the height of China complacency, all theChina plays have performed by a similar amount.82 87 92 97 102 Jun-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19 European china exposed cap goodsEuropean mining German AutosEuropean Luxury Rel to market,sinceJune 2018 Sentiment on the China plays appears to have troughed in Q4Source: Refinitiv, Credit Suisse research 。。。。。。