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UNCTAD_2018年非洲B2C电子商务指数报告(英文)2018.12_23页

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1 UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index 2018 Focus on AfricaImproved coverage in 2018 edition The 2018 UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index, which measures an economy’s preparedness tosupport online shopping, has expanded its coverage to include 151 economies, up sevenfrom the 2017 edition. The index consists of four indicators that are highly related to onlineshopping and for which there is wide country coverage (box 1).1 The extent to which peopleshop online in a country is highly correlated with the value of the index, with an adjusted Rsquared value of 0.8 (Figure 1). Box 1. UNCTAD B2C E-commerce index methodologyThe index is calculated as the average of four indicators (i.e., each indicator carries the same weight)using data for 2017 or the latest available. Account ownership at a financial institution or with a mobile-money-service provider (% ofpopulation ages 15+) (Source: World Bank) Individuals using the Internet (% of population) (Source: International TelecommunicationUnion, ITU) Postal Reliability Index (Source: Universal Postal Union, UPU) Secure Internet servers (per 1 million people) (Source: Netcraft)Account ownership data are sourced from the World Bank Findex survey, which is carried out everythree years, with latest survey in 2017. Therefore, 2016 data have been estimated based on theCompound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) between 2014-17. In cases where there was no survey in2014 but there was one in 2011 and 2017, intervening years are estimated based on the 2011-17CAGR. Older data were used as a basis for the estimates when only surveys conducted prior to 2014or 2011 were available.Secure Internet servers per 1 million people is normalized with this formula: Log (secure serverpenetration)-Log (maximum value) / Log (maximum value) / Log (minimum value) *100. As notedthere was a significant rise in secure servers for some countries in 2017 and revisions in earlier years.UPU postal reliability data is available for 2015-17. If there are no data for a country in 2017, thenthe previous year’s data are used. At the time of this report, 2017 Internet use data from the ITU were available for less than half ofthe countries in the index. In some cases, surveys have been used to update the data. If no surveywas available, then 2016 data is used. Country ranks for 2016 are shown as in the previous version of the index. However, given revisionsto the data, the increase in score is based on the revised value for 2016.Source: UNCTAD. 1 For more information on the methodology see: UNCTAD. 2017. “UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index 2017.”UNCTAD Technical Notes on ICT for Development, No. 9. 2 The release of new account ownership data from the World Bank’s 2017 Global Findexsurvey2 has increased the number of countries included and allows for an estimation ofaccount data for the intervening years since the last survey in 2014. Furthermore, the 2017FINDEX survey includes for the first time data on the proportion of the age 15+ populationwhich has used the Internet to buy something online. This allows the index to be tested forrobustness using a harmonized data set of online shoppers. There were significant revisionsto data on the availability of secure servers. According to Netcraft, the company that carriesout the survey, there was a sharp rise for some countries due to drives from browservendors for increased security and the availability of free, easy-to-use certificates. Postalreliability scores fluctuated significantly in 2017 as postal operators adjusted to growingparcel volumes from increased online shopping.Figure 1. Relationship between UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index values and onlineshoppingSource: UNCTAD.2 https://globalfindex.worldbank.R = 0.803 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 020406080100 Sh op pe dOn lin e ( %15 +) , 2 01 7 UNCTAD B2C E-commerce index 20183 The Netherlands ascends to the top of the indexEight of the top ten countries on the index are in Europe (Table 1). Index values areextremely close, with a range of just four points between first and tenth rank. For the firsttime, the Netherlands is the highest ranked country in the index, up three positions fromthe last year. It replaced Luxembourg, which dropped out of the top ten as a result of asharp drop in its postal reliability score. The Netherlands has high values for most indicators(Box 1), particularly secure servers where it is top ranked among all countries included in theindex. Secure servers is used as a proxy for e-commerce shops, and the Netherlands hadover 40’000 pure play online retailers in 2016, the highest figure in the European Union(Figure 2, left).3 The country has the second highest proportion of online shoppers in theworld (76% of the population aged 15 and older). Singapore and Switzerland are in second and third place. Singapore has surged 16 positionsfrom the last edition, with increased values across all indicators. It now ranks among the topcountries in accounts, secure server penetration and postal reliability. E-commerce giantAlibaba is an investor in Singapore Post, which in fiscal year 2018 reported that over half itsrevenue was e-commerce related (Figure 2, right).4 Internet use is, however, below averageand the country’s level of online shopping is lower than what it should be given its highindex rank. This may partly reflect the fact that the main reason Internet users do not shoponline in Singapore is they prefer to shop in person, a factor not measured in the index.5 Switzerland rates favorably on all indicators and according to its national postal operator:“Switzerland has all the ingredients it needs to be one of the best e-commerce markets inthe world.”6 The Confederation had the second highest average online spend amongEuropean countries in 2016 (Figure 3, left).The United Kingdom has climbed to fourth position. Along with the Netherlands andSwitzerland, the United Kingdom has all of its index indicator values at 90 or above. Such aconducive environment for online shopping is reflected in the country having the largestB2C revenues in Europe and the world’s highest proportion of B2C revenues to GDP (Figure3, right).Norway and Sweden, 5th and 8th respectively, are among four Nordic nations included in thetop ten. They have among the world’s highest values for all of the indicators except secureserver penetration. High levels of Internet access, payment methods and reliable postaldelivery are driving online shopping to among the highest levels in the world (3rd and 6thworld ranking in the proportion of population that has bought something online). Iceland,ranked 6th, has near ubiquitous Internet access with 98% of the population online, thehighest in the world along with Bahrain and Norway. Its score is brought down by arelatively low level of postal reliability, possibly a reflection of challenging terrain and 3 See “Annual detailed enterprise statistics for trade (NACE Rev. 2 G)” on the Eurostat database at:https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database4 Singapore Post. 2018. Annual Report 2017/18.singpost/sites/default/files/publications_file/2018/06/Singpost_AR201718.pdf5 Infocomm Media Development Authority. 2018. Annual Survey on Infocomm Usage in Households and byIndividuals for 2017. imda.gov.sg/industry-development/facts-and-figures/infocomm-usage- households-and-individuals6 Asendia. “The secrets of e-commerce success in Switzerland.”asendia.co.uk/application/files/2215/0600/5325/Asendia_secrets_of_ecommerce_success_in_s witzerland_whitepaper.pdf。。。。。。