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莱坊_上海商铺市场报告2018第三季度_2018.11_6页

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32 RESEARCHSHAngHAi REtAil MARKEt REPORt Q3 2018 As street shop rents were lifted due to thegradual tenant-mix adjustments of NanjingEast Road and Huaihai middle Road,the Q-o-Q growth rate of prime streetshops was higher than that of shoppingmalls. The average ground-foor of majorshopping malls increased slightly by 0.5%to RmB62.4 per sqm per day, whilst that ofprime street shops increased by 1.9% toRmB55.0 per sqm per day.In Q3, the growth pace of averageground-foor rent of shopping malls innon-core areas remained same as thatin core areas. The average ground-foorrent of shopping malls in non-core areasincreased slightly by 0.4% to RmB27.8per sqm per day, while the averagerent of shopping malls in core areasincreased slightly by 0.5% to RmB62.4per sqm per day. Shopping malls which recorded rentalgrowth in core areas included RaffesCity in people’s Square, Hongyi plazaalong Nanjing East Road, Citic Squareand HkRI Taikoo Hui along NanjingWest Road as well as iapm alongHuaihai middle Road. In non-core areas,shopping malls with growing rentsincluded L’Avenue, In point and Hopsonone. In prime shopping areas, the asking rentsof small retail shops sized 50-80 sqmranged from RmB30 to RmB35 per sqmper day; while those of general retailshops sized 100-150 sqm ranged fromRmB18 to RmB25 per sqm per day.In the primary strata-titled sales market,retail property transactions exceedingRmB100,000 per sqm were stillconcentrated in Xinhua Red Star mall inminhang District. In Q2, 9 shops with unitprices over RmB100,000 per sqm in thisdevelopment were sold for an averageprice of RmB126,850 per sqm. Theaverage size of these transacted shopswas 50.6 sqm. In the third quarter (Q3), six shoppingmalls offcially opened or soft opened.Three of them are situated at HuangpuDistrict, two in pudong and one in Xuhui,bringing approximately 415,000 sqm ofnew retail space to the market, down15.3% compared with the previousquarter. The average ground-foor rent inShanghai’s prime retail areas increased1.1% quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) toRmB58.7 per sqm per day (see Table 1).In Q3, the overall vacancy rate of majorshopping malls fell 0.4 percentage pointfrom the previous quarter to 14.4% (seeTable 1). In Q3, with the opening of several newretail malls and renovated malls, a goodnumber of new retail stores emerged.The market witnessed the opening ofa batch of medium-sized multi-brandboutique stores. Domestic fashion brandsRENTS &PRICES PRIME STREET SHOPRENT INCREASED BY1.9% TO RMB55 PERSQM PER DAY IN Q3 2018 The Shanghai retail property market was active with theopenings of several new shopping malls. The consumerdemand of physical stores improved due to the entry ofvarious new retail experiential stores.TABlE 1 Shanghai prime retail market indictors IndicatorQ3 2018 fgureQoQ changeOutlook(Q4 2018) New supply 415,407 sqm↓ 15.3% ↗ Ground foor rentRmB58.7 / sqm / day↑ 1.1%↗ Vacancy rate14.4%↓ 0.4%↘ Capital valueRmB269,000 / sqm↑ 0.3% ↗ Source: Knight Frank Research TABlE 2 Selected retail property leasing transactions, Q3 2018 DistrictBuildingFloor / unitTradeArea(sqm) HongkouSinar mas New BundLevel 3 unitFood & Beverage (F&B)424 Jing’anCitic SquareBasement 1 unitF&B140 Jing’anJAICBasement 2 unitF&B34 HuangpuLuoneLevel 6 unitsCinema4,600 PutuoGlobal HarborLevel 1 unitF&B150 Source: Knight Frank Research Note: all transactions are subject to confrmation TABlE 3 Selected retail property sales transactions, Q3 2018 DistrictBuildingFloor / unitArea(sqm) Price (RMB million) Price (RMB /sqm) PudongYifeng Times SquareLevel 1 unit33.93.396,562 HuangpuNew Richport TowerLevel 1 unit100.68.887,407 QingpuQingpu Wanda mall Level 1 unit58.85.390,841 MinhangXinhua Red Star mallLevel 1 unit117.810.286,594 MinhangRoyal TerritoryLevel 1 unit172.717.098,691 Source: Shanghai Real Estate Trading Centre / Knight Frank Research Note: all transactions are subject to confrmation.FIGURE 1 Shanghai ground-foor retail rents in prime areas are actively expanding in China, trying toexplore new retail store operating model. In the fourth quarter (Q4), we expectretail rents in Shanghai’s prime retailareas will increase steadily. Amongst, theaverage rents of major shopping malls willincrease by 2% Q-o-Q and street shopsmay remain stable.In the coming days, new retail formatsincluding trendy brands and shoes,accessories and jewellery, auto showroomand small-to-medium sized multi-brandboutique stores will be prevailing amonglandlords. Shopping malls scheduled to open in Q4include Sanlin Incity (90,000 sqm) andL+mall (120,000 sqm) in pudong, Sinarmas New Bund (110,000 sqm) and Landmark Centre (72,000 sqm) in Hongkou,as well as Xintiandi plaza (30,000 sqm) inHuangpu.Source: Knight Frank Research 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3 200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018 RMB/sqm/day5 研究报告上海商铺市场报告 2018 第三季 4FIGURE 2 Shanghai shopping mall annual supply and stockNew malls opened in Q3 included CapitaLand Luone and Bund Finance Centre inHuangpu, LC mall and Lite mall in pudong and Nanyang 1931 in Xuhui.For the existing retail stock, Shanghai Shimao Festival City in the people’s Square retail areare-opened in Q3 after 1.5 years’ closure for renovation.The North Building of Grand Gateway 66also reopened in the quarter after the large-scale renovation. Retail consumer demand remained strong amid the new retail trends. The total retail sales ofsocial consumer goods from January to August 2018 reached RmB 817.908 billion, an increaseof 8.0% year on year. SUPPlY & DEMAND In Q3, with the opening of several newretail malls and renovated malls, a goodnumber of new retail stores emerged. Themarket witnessed the opening of a batch ofmedium-sized multi-brand boutique stores.For examples, mia Fringe, with restaurants,lounges and retail space integrated at a totalGFA of 1,600 sqm, had its debut in Huaihai627 mall (originally known as Xue Bao mall).The first store of Italian-based departmentstore Coscia opened in Century Link with anarea of 600 sqm.Domestic fashion brands are activelyexpanding in China, trying to explore newretail store operating model. In September,domestic women’s wear oVV and casualmenswear AEX jointly opened the oVV lAEX global flagship store in Joffre 688 onHuaihai middle Road where ZARA store waspreviously located, stretching three floors witha retail store size of 1,900 sqm. In the samemonth, armed with T-mall, Spanish clothingbrand Zara was expanding its presence inShanghai with the opening of a “New RetailConcept” store – Shanghai Times SquareFlagship Store. The duplex store covers asite area of 1,500 sqm. The new QR codessystem adopted by the store helps to achievethe effective online–offline integration. In recent years, shopping mall operatorscontinue to seek for breakthroughs toupgrade their malls and thus increase thefootage. Indoor themed streets are welcomedby landlords and begin to emerge in manynew shopping malls. There are also manythemed areas in Shanghai like i-Land in JoyCity, Jing’an District, m Square on the groundfloor of mosaic and Village68, the themedarea for women’s life style in Citic Square.In Q3, with the opening of new shoppingmalls, new themed areas were launched,increasing the popularity and adding valueto shopping malls. Lane 1192 old Street ofShanghai on basement two level in CenturyLink recently opened in pudong. It featuresthe style of Shanghai city back in 1930s and40s by establishing a retro dining experientialrecreation area gathered by ChinaTime-honored Brand restaurants includingShen Da Cheng, Tai kang Foods, Lao DaFang and Da Hu Chun. Apart from attractingthe white-collar and residents around,Lane 1192 old Street of Shanghai hasalso attracted the elderly consumers agedbetween 50 and 70 since its opening withthe possibility of becoming one of the mostpopular tourist attractions in Shanghai. The themed area, Happily Ever After in thenorth zone of BFC was officially opened inthe past few days. Located in the core area ofthe north district in the Bund Finance Centre(“BFC”), the themed area covers 3,000 sqm,spanning from B2 to B1 with two differentthemes. Level B1, titled as “once Upon ATime”, has attracted nearly 30 creative shopsMARKET ACTIVITIES and The modern Bookshop – BooCUphas become its representative tenant. LevelB2, named “Happily Ever After”, featuresrestaurants and snacks. “Happily Ever After”also introduces BoNA Cinemas, the mosthigh-end cinema line of BoNA Film Groupwith a total gross area of 4,300 sqm, including8 cinema halls with 1,000 seats. In the era of New Retail, “themed areas+ experiential stores” will be a keydevelopment trend for shopping malldevelopers. The themed area has becomean essential portion in new shopping malls.How to continuously adjust trade-mix tomake themed areas remain competitivewill be a common challenge faced by alldevelopers. 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017Q1-Q3 2018 million sqmmillion sqm Annual net supply (left)Stock (right) Source: Knight Frank Research 76 研究报告上海商铺市场报告 2018 第三季 租金及价格 表二 上海商铺租赁成交范例,2018年第三季度 区域项目楼层/单元业态面积(平方米) 虹口白玉兰广场三层单元餐饮424 静安中信泰富广场地下一层单元餐饮140 静安静安国际中心地下二层单元餐饮34 黄浦凯德晶萃广场六层单元电影院4,600 普陀环球港一层单元餐饮150 资料来源:莱坊研究部 注:所有成交均有待落实。 表三 上海商铺买卖成交范例,2018年第三季度 区域项目楼层/单元面积(平方米)总价(人民币百万元) 成交价格 (人民币/ 平方米) 浦东亿丰时代广场一层单元33.93.396,562 黄浦丰盛创建大厦一层单元100.68.887,407 青浦青浦万达茂一层单元58.85.390,841 闵行新华红星广场一层单元117.810.286,594 闵行虹桥富力中心商铺一层单元172.717.098,691 资料来源:上海房地产交易中心/莱坊研究部 注:所有成交均有待落实 图一 上海主要商圈首层商铺租金 资料来源:莱坊研究部 由于南京东路和淮海中路的街铺正在 逐步调整,拉升了街铺的平均租金,因 此第三季度核心商圈街铺的环比涨幅 要高于购物中心。主要购物中心首层平 均租金环比微升0.5%至每天每平方米 人民币62.4元,而街铺的首层平均租金 环比上升1.9%至每天每平方米人民币 55.0元。第三季度,非核心商圈购物中心首层平 均租金的环比涨幅基本与核心商圈的环 比涨幅持平。非核心商圈购物中心首层 平均租金环比微升0.4%,至每天每平 方民人民币27.8元,而核心购物中心的 首层平均租金环比微升0.5%至每天每 平方米人民币62.4元。 核心商圈内录得租金增长的商场有人民 广场商圈的来福士广场、南京东路沿线 的宏伊广场、南京西路沿线的中信泰富 广场及兴业太古汇、以及淮海中路沿线 的环贸广场。而非核心商圈录得租金 增长的商场则包括尚嘉中心、四季坊及 合生汇。 主要商圈内,面积在50-80平方米的小 面积餐饮铺位租金报价约在每天每平方 米人民币30-35元;而面积在100-150 平方米的一般零售铺位租金报价则在每 天每平方米人民币18-25元。 在一手商铺散售市场上,三季度单价在 每平方米人民币10万元以上的成交商 铺仍然主要集中在闵行区的新华红星国 际广场。第三季度,新华红星国际广场 共有9宗单价在每平方米10万元的商铺 成交,这些商铺的平均成交单价约为每 平方米人民币126,850元,平均成交商 铺面积为50.6平方米。 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3 200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018 人民币/平方米/天 第三季度,上海有六座商场正式开业或试 营业,其中有三座新商场位于黄浦区,两 座位于浦东,一座位于徐汇,共为市场 带来约41.5万平方米(见表一)的零售面 积,新增供应量与上季度相比下跌15.3% (见表一)。 第三季度,上海主要商圈首层平均租金 环比上升1.1%至每天每平方米人民币 58.7元(见表一),主要商圈购物中心 的整体空置率环比下跌0.4个百分点至 14.4%(见表一)。 随着多家新商场和翻新后商场陆续开 业,各种零售新店纷纷进驻。零售市场 上出现了一批中性规模的集合店。国内 时装品牌也积极在国内布局,探索新零 售店铺模式。 第四季度,我们预计上海主要商圈的零 售物业租金将保持稳中有升的态势,其 中,主要购物中心的平均租金预计将环 比上涨2%而街铺租金将保持稳定。 以潮牌鞋包、配饰首饰、汽车体验店、 中小规模的集合店为代表的新零售业态 将受到业主的欢迎。 计划在第四季度开业的购物中心有浦东 的三林印象城(90,000平方米)和陆家 嘴中心L+mall(120,000平方米)、虹 口区的白玉兰广场(110,000平方米) 和星荟中心(72,000平方米)以及黄浦 区的新天地广场(30,000平方米)。 2018年第三季度主要商 圈街铺首层租金环比上 升1.9%至每天每平方米 人民币55元 随着数座购物中心的开业,上海零售物业市场 表现活跃。各种新零售体验店的进驻使实体商 业需求得到持续改善。 表一 上海优质商铺市场参考指标 指标2018年第三季度数字按季变幅预测(2018年第四季) 新增供应415,407 平方米↓ 15.3% ↗ 首层租金人民币58.7/平方米/天↑ 1.1%↗空置率14.4%↓ 0.4%↘ 资本价值人民币269,000 /平方米↑ 0.3% ↗ 资料来源:莱坊研究部 。。。。。。