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瑞银_全球_环境保护行业_全球可持续性:AQI可视化_2019.2.7_26页

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。 Global Sustainability 7 February 2019 2ContentsUBS Evidence Lab inside - Global AQI Update ....... 3Investment Read-Throughs .. 3Checking Out Air Pollution on the Ground .. 4AQIs and Health Effects: a Brief Update on Academic Research Projects ...... 5AQI Chart Pages – UBS Evidence Lab inside . 7City Charts Section One: AQI Range 0 -100 . 7City Charts Section Two: AQI Range 101-200 ........ 11City Chart Section Three: AQI Range 101-300+ ..... 14Regulatory Response As Reflected in UBS Research15Appendix: Extract from ESG Team's List of Group One and Group TwoCompanies ......... 16UBS Evidence Lab Methodology ... 17UBS Evidence Lab Remote Sensing . 17UBS Evidence Lab Air Quality Index (AQI) ... 17UBS Evidence Lab AQI – Metrics Calculated ........... 17Air Quality Index in Summary ......... 19Julie Hudson, CFAAnalystjulie.hudson@ubs+44-20-7568 4632Victoria KalbAnalystvicki.kalb@ubs+44-20-7567 3624 Global Sustainability 7 February 2019 3UBS Evidence Lab inside - Global AQIUpdateInvestment Read-ThroughsAs discussed in our launch of the UBS Evidence Lab Air Quality Index, pollutingsectors include transport systems, industry, power generation and domesticheating.Steady momentum is in evidence on two fronts for air pollution: regularpolicy announcements (e.g. Figure 2) aimed at reducing transport-related pollutionin cities; and a shift towards alternative energy in energy generation systemsglobally.Both trends are discussed in UBS's materials, autos and utilities research.In the commodity sector, China's clean air regulation for materials processing /heavy industrials has directly affected commodity prices and the relativecompetitive positioning of firms in some sectors, therefore also analyst models and(indirectly) share prices.See UBS's work on air pollution and metals and miningfirms (3rd December 2018 update). Our ESG Industry Postcard for China cementcompanies describes how the relative positioning of companies is affected by thediffering stringency of environmental regulations according to where they arebased. Our ESG team list contains companies in two groups: 1. Those providing greensolutions (e.g. alternative energy companies); and 2. Those in the midst of orfacilitating competitive transition.The full list is found in ESG Keys: What Doesan ESG DCF Mean This list includes companies potentially relevant to the airpollution story, albeit often only indirectly.Air quality is unlikely to be a line itemin valuation models, but it has an influence on regulation and public opinion. As inthe mining and cement examples above, this affects competitive landscapestherefore also valuation models.Examples relevant to our ESG Keys stock listare found in the discussion below, and in Figure 27 in the Appendix: In the European Utilities team's Outlook 2019, Buy-rated companies in thecontext of the shift towards clean energy under way globally are shown on p.32: Orsted, Enel (sector leaders with attractive valuation); RWE (energytransformations) and Engie (smaller player in renewables). The European Utilities team recently reported on the German coal commission'sconsensus proposal for coal exit. We see this as very positive for our sectorview […].We see RWE as the main beneficiary […] Others such as Orsted (Buy,PT 505 DKK) could benefit indirectly from the implied increase in Germanrenewables.The utilities team describes an alignment of regulatory and market forces addingup to a positive investment theme.However, as we wrote in our first ESG Op Edof the year (p. 6), it is important to acknowledge that there is a flip side to marketforces, which are like ecosystems in having ambiguous effects. If the pressures ofcompetition are intense, this might make it impossible to implement social orenvironmental positives profitably, and, in valuation models (see Back to Basics –What is an ESG DCF), positive effects might therefore be more than outweighedby the effects of competitive pressure.Air pollution is visible andpolitically sensitive, therefore willconnect to investment flows,even if often indirectly.As a political issue, air quality islikely to have indirect effects oncompetitive landscapes byaffecting regulation and marketbehaviour.See also Figure 27. Global Sustainability 7 February 2019 4 In our summary Climate Change through the Lens of Energy and MobilityTransitions (see p. 40), we highlighted the impact of conclusions in the EV tear- down report for a wide range of sectors and companies.In our ESG Keys:What Does an ESG DCF Mean we described Umicore, Valeo, Atlas Copco andLG Chemical as companies facilitating the transition to clean mobility throughthe provision of supply chain inputs (such as battery materials).Recent UBSresearch described headwinds for Umicore (6 Dec 2018); six quarters of missedexpectations for Valeo (7 Nov 2018); cycle-related challenges for Atlas Copco(10 December 2018), and petrochemicals earnings declines for LG Chemical (30January 2019). Checking Out Air Pollution on the Ground When we were getting close to launching the UBS Evidence Lab Air Quality Indexreport (How disruptive could air pollution be) in November 2017, press articleshad flagged the recent arrival of individual air quality monitoring devices forindividuals.A New Scientist article described Plume Lab's Flow device asempowering individuals to respond to air quality by modifying their activity inresponse to pollution levels.In the interests of understanding air pollution better,and at the risk of becoming an AQIchondriac, I decided to invest in such asensor.My AQI readings suggested that some developed country cities maycontain air pollution hot spots more typical of emerging market countries.Being able to see my AQI has changed my perspective, in two importantrespects, in the space of two short weeks. In all of our research about Air Quality, 0-50 AQIs are described as good,posing little or no risk (p. 19), in line with the definitions applied in theWorld Air Quality Index project.However, relatively little is likely to be knownabout long-run cumulative exposures in the 25-50 range.Putting together achange in mind-set (watching air pollution up close and personal) and thecontent of academic research on air pollution health effects (Figure 3), I cannow see what should be possible in the form of low numbers in a big city. Figure 1 – particulate matter below 10, with a couple of very short-term spikes– turns out to be a profile to aim at.Secondly, it might not be better to travel than to arrive as the saying goes,from an AQI perspective.My AQI level has often remained in the 10-35range when I was inside buildings, or walking along London's side streets.Itexceeded 100 when I was travelling in the presence of combustion engines: ona motorway in traffic or on foot on a busy street.On the London Undergroundlast week and this week, I found what seems to be a collection space forparticulate matter: my AQI rose over 200, which is on the borderlinebetween unhealthy and very unhealthy.A sample of five journeys is notenough to say whether this is typical. A further discovery suggested by my AQI readings, as snow and ice brieflyenveloped areas of the UK on Friday and Saturday last week, is that cold airseems to trap particulates near the ground, resulting in higher exposures toparticulates for quite long periods of time.I have two reasons for being interested in my AQI.I wanted to add a newperspective to our AQI research by observing AQIs on the ground.As a resident ofa city in which regulatory announcements in respect of air pollution appearregularly (Figure 2), I wanted to be empowered to seek out healthier air.My twoTransitioning to clean mobility:not always a straight line from Ato B.AQIchondriac definition: a personwho regularly checks their airquality App.Clean air aspirations.Not actually better to travel thanarrive, in this case…Data and visibility facilitateschoices, but…..。。。。。。