首页 > 资料专栏 > 地产 > 商业地产 > 商业街 > 莱坊_《上海商铺市场》报告2018年_第二季度_2018.8_6页

莱坊_《上海商铺市场》报告2018年_第二季度_2018.8_6页

上海维坤***
V 实名认证
内容提供者
资料大小:3472KB(压缩后)
文档格式:WinRAR
资料语言:中文版/英文版/日文版
解压密码:m448
更新时间:2019/6/9(发布于上海)

类型:积分资料
积分:10分 (VIP无积分限制)
推荐:升级会员

   点此下载 ==>> 点击下载文档


文本描述
32 RESEARCHSHAngHAi REtAil MARKEt REPORt Q2 2018 In Q2, the average ground-foor rent inShanghai’s prime retail areas fell by 0.7%Q-o-Q to RmB58.1 per sqm per day (seeFigure 1). The average ground-foor rentof the shopping malls increased slightlyby 0.3% Q-o-Q to RmB61.9 per sqmper day, while the average rent of streetshops fell by 1.8% Q-o-Q to RmB54.0per sqm per day. The average ground-foor rent ofshopping malls in non-core areasincreased faster than that in core areas.Shopping malls which recorded rentalgrowth in core areas included Cloud NineShopping Centre in the Zhongshan parkarea, Hongyi plaza and mosaic mall onNanjing East Road and 818 plaza onNanjing West Road. Non-core retail areashad more malls recording rental growth,including kerry parkside in the Huamuarea, Global Harbor in putuo District aswell as Cloud Nine Shopping Centre andSuper ocean Sky mall in Xinzhuang. Domestic apparel brands were activelyentering emerging prime retail areassuch as Nanjing West Road and Huaihaimiddle Road. A female business apparelbrand, for example, leased one to twofoors of approximately 1,000 sqmfor RmB20 per sqm per day at ChinaVenturetech plaza on Nanjing West Road(see Table 2). The asking ground-foor rent of ShanghaiWoli City, located in Beicai Town, pudongNew Area, ranged from RmB15 toRmB18 per sqm per day, while those inJAIC close to Shanghai Railway Stationin Jing’an District ranged from RmB15 toRmB25 per sqm per day. In the primary strata-titled sales market,retail property transactions exceedingRmB100,000 per sqm were concentratedin Aegean Shopping mall in minhangDistrict. In Q2, 69 shops in this projectwere sold for an average price ofRmB131,450 per sqm. In Q2, three malls were offcially openedor soft-opened, bringing 320,200 sqm ofretail space to the market (see Table 1). In Q2, the average ground foor rent ofShanghai’s prime retail areas fell by 0.7%quarter on quarter (Q-o-Q) to RmB58.1per sq m per day (see Table 1). As some foors of shopping malls werebeing partially adjusted, the overallvacancy rate of shopping malls increasedby 0.4 percentage points Q-o-Q to 14.8%(see Table 1). In the third quarter (Q3), we expect overallretail property rents in Shanghai’s primeretail areas to remain stable. Due to the limited supply of new shoppingmalls in prime areas, the average rent ofRENTS &PRICES NEW SHOPPING MALLSUPPLY REACHED OVER300,000 SQM IN Q2 2018 In the second quarter (Q2) of 2018, both demand andsupply in Shanghai’s retail property market revived.While several shopping malls announced their openings,consumer demand became increasingly diversifed.TAbLE 1 Shanghai prime retail market indictors IndicatorQ2 2018 fgureQoQ changeOutlook(Q3 2018) New supply 320,200 sqmN/A ↗ Ground foorrentRmB58.1 / sqm / day↓ 0.7% Vacancy rate14.8%↑ 0.4%↘ Capital valueRmB268,260 / sqm↑ 2.0% ↗ Source: Knight Frank Research TAbLE 2 Selected retail property leasing transactions, Q2 2018 DistrictBuildingFloor / unitTradeArea(sq m) Rent (RMB /sqm /day) HongkouSinar masNew BundLevel 1 unitFood & Beverage (F&B)31418 Jing’anChina Venturetech plazaLevel 1-2 unitsApparel1,00020 Jing’anJAICLevel 1 unitF&B9122 PutuoChangfeng Joy CityLevel 1 unitCosmetics28818 MinhangXinzhuangCloud NineLevel 4 unitkids1,5008 Source: Knight Frank Research Note: all transactions are subject to confrmation TAbLE 3 Selected retail property sales transactions, Q2 2018 DistrictBuildingFloor / unitArea(sqm) Price (RMB million) Price (RMB / sqm) PudongYifeng Times SquareLevel 1 unit404.0100,894 PutuoNew Step BuildingLevel 1 unit15513.486,429 QingpuQingpu Wanda mall Level 1 unit11513.6118,579 MinhangAegean Shopping mallLevel 1 unit18118.5102,018 MinhangRoyal TerritoryLevel 2 unit1078.074,908 Source: Shanghai Real Estate Trading Centre / Knight Frank Research Note: all transactions are subject to confrmation.FIGURE 1 Shanghai ground-foor retail rents in prime areas major shopping malls will continue to rise,while street shop rents may continue todecline slightly. Shopping malls scheduled to open in Q3include CapitaLand Luone (86,000 sqm)in Huangpu District, magnolia Square(110,000 sqm) in Hongkou District and LCmall (130,000 sqm) in pudong. The Galeries Lafayette department storefrom paris, France will open at the endof the year at L+mall in Lujiazui Centre,covering around 20,000 sqm of space. meanwhile, the frst warehouse retail storeof Costco in mainland China will open inkangqiao, pudong in the second half of2018. Source: Knight Frank Research 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2 200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018 RMB/sqm/day5 研究报告上海商铺市场报告 2018 第二季 4In Q2, the Shanghai retail property en-blocsales market was active. Lanzhou minbaiGroup held by Honglou Group announcedit would sell the equity interest of ShanghaiSquare on Huaihai middle Road andFudu Building on Renmin Road throughits wholly-owned subsidiary, HangzhouHuanbei Silk Garment City Co., Ltd.,to Shanghai Shangmin and ShanghaiChangchu for RmB1.86 billion and RmB603million respectively.on 5 April, Singapore’s keppel Corporationannounced that Alpha Asia macro TrendsFund II, managed by Alpha Investmentpartners Limited, sold its entire sharesin Shanghai International Capital plazaINVESTMENT MARKET through its wholly-owned entity to LaSalleInvestment management. Located inSichuan North Road in Hongkou District,Shanghai International Capital plaza, amixed-use office and retail project, has atotal gross floor area of over 56,000 sqm,of which the six-storey commercial podiumcovers 15,900 sqm of space.FIGURE 2 Shanghai shopping mall annual supply and stockNewly opened shopping malls in Q2 included Jing’an Imix park in Jing’an District, JunxinTimes plaza in Yangpu District and Lidoway in Qingpu District. on 29 June, Jing’an Imixpark, owned by Everbright Ashmore, officially opened. This is the largest shopping mallin the Daning area and even the entire northern Jing’an area, with a total gross floor areaof about 190,000 sqm. The mall spans over four storeys above ground with a total areaof 110,000 sqm and the basement level covers 30,000 sqm of space. on the openingday, the pre-let rate and the opening rate of Jing’an Imix park reached 98% and 85%respectively.SUPPLY & DEMAND meanwhile, after one and a half years’renovation, Changfeng Joy City officially re- opened in Q2, with an area of about 120,000sqm. This is CoFCo’s second commercialcomplex in Shanghai after Jing’an Joy City.Changfeng Joy City introduced 245 newbrands and retained more than 40 existingbrands, with F&B taking approximately 30%of the total space. Retail consumer demand was booming.During the Jingdong 618 online ShoppingFestival, the accumulated orders on theJingdong platform increased by 33%compared to the same period of last year.According to the Shanghai municipalCommission of Commerce, 412 retail andcatering operators in the city achieved totalretail sales of RmB 3.78 billion during theLabour Day holiday period (29 April to 1 may),an increase of 15.9% year on year (Y-o-Y).Shanghai remained the first choice fordomestic and foreign retailers to open storesin China. In Q2, a number of first storesin the city or even in the nation opened inShanghai. For example, American sportswearmanufacturer Champion’s first store waslaunched in k11 Art Gallery mall. Xiaomi’s“Something Seen”, the world’s first smarthome furniture house, opened in QibaoVanke plaza. Carrefour’s first smart store alsoopened in Shanghai. Emerging in the 1990s, hypermarkets(represented by Carrefour, Tesco andWalmart) have been facing operationaldifficulties in recent years. With the rise ofe-commerce, sales of hypermarkets havefallen and their retail store networks have beenshrinking. In 2017, the number of hypermarketclosures increased significantly. Sevensupermarket brands including Walmart,Carrefour and AEoN closed approximately45 stores, an increase of 28.6% year-on- year. South korea’s E-mart and Lotte martsupermarkets also announced completewithdrawal from the Chinese market in 2017.This trend has continued into 2018.In order to circumvent the difficulties,hypermarkets have been actively transformingthemselves into a new supermarket format– small and medium-sized retail stores. Forexample, on 20 may, Carrefour opened theworld’s first smart life store “Le marche” inTianshan West Road, Beixinjing, ChangingDistrict, Shanghai. The store has a businessarea of 4,000 sqm and spans over twofloors with more than 25,000 different kindsof goods, including catering, fresh food,imported goods and private brands. Thisstore has been the first joint-venture projectbetween Tencent and Carrefour since apotential investment by Tencent in CarrefourChina in January this year.MARKET ACTIVITIES meanwhile, Walmart is also preparingto launch a community-based smartsupermarket under the brand name of “HuiXuan”. The about 1,000-sqm stores willmainly target community consumer groups.At the beginning of this year, Auchan China’s100th unmanned convenience store openedin Qiqiaoguo Square, Changyang Road,Shanghai. Auchan plans to open 3,000 suchstores in 2018 and 10,000 in 2019. Large hypermarkets are being transformedinto small and medium-sized smart storessized only several thousand sqm. Webelieve that these smart stores will becomeone of the main retail formats favoured byhypermarket operators in the future. 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017Q1-Q2 2018 million sqmmillion sqm Annual net supply (left)Stock (right) Source: Knight Frank Research 76 研究报告上海商铺市场报告 2018 第二季 租金及价格 表二 上海商铺租赁成交范例,2018年第二季度 区域项目楼层/单元业态面积(平方米) 租金 (人民币/平方 米/天) 虹口白玉兰广场一层单元餐饮31418 静安中创大厦一至二层单元服饰1,00020 静安静安国际中心一层单元餐饮9122 普陀长风大悦城一层单元化妆品28818 闵行莘庄龙之梦四层单元儿童1,5008 资料来源:莱坊研究部 注:所有成交均有待落实。 表三 上海商铺买卖成交范例,2018年第二季度 区域项目楼层/单元面积(平方米)总价(人民币百万元) 成交价格 (人民币/ 平方米) 浦东亿丰时代广场一层单元404.0100,894 普陀万业远景大厦一层单元15513.486,429 青浦青浦万达茂一层单元11513.6118,579 闵行上海爱琴海购物公园一层单元18118.5102,018 闵行虹桥富力中心商铺一层单元1078.074,908 资料来源:上海房地产交易中心/莱坊研究部 注:所有成交均有待落实 图一 上海主要商圈首层商铺租金 资料来源:莱坊研究部 第二季度,上海主要商圈首层平均租金 环比下跌0.7%至每天每平方米人民币 58.1元(见图一)。其中,购物中心首 层平均租金环比微升0.3%,至每天每 平方米人民币61.9元,而街铺的平均租 金则环比下跌1.8%至每天每平方米人 民币54.0元。 非核心商圈购物中心首层平均租金的环 比增幅超过核心商圈。核心商圈内录得 租金增长的商场有中山公园商圈的龙之 梦购物中心、南京东路沿线的宏伊广场 和悦荟广场以及南京西路的818广场; 而非核心商圈录得租金增长的商场更 多,包括花木地区的浦东嘉里城、普陀 区的环球港、莘庄的龙之梦购物中心和 仲盛世界商城 国内服饰品牌积极在南京西路、淮海中 路等主要商圈寻址开店。一女性商务服 饰品牌在南京西路上的中创大厦以约每 天每平方米人民币20元的租金租赁了 一至二层约1,000平方米的店铺面积 (见表二)。 正在招商的位于浦东新区北蔡镇的上海 活力城,其一层店铺的租金报价约在每 天每平方米人民币15-18元;而位于静 安区上海火车站附近的静安国际中心的 首层租金报价则在每天每平方米人民币 15-25元。 在一手商铺散售市场上,二季度单价在 每平方米人民币10万以上的成交商铺 主要集中在闵行区的上海爱琴海购物公 园。第二季度,该项目共有69宗商铺 成交,平均成交单价约为每平方米人民 币131,450元。 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2 200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018 人民币/平方米/天 二季度共有三座商场正式开业或者试营 业,为市场带来320,200平方米的零售 面积(见表一)。 第二季度,上海主要商圈首层平均租金 环比下跌0.7%至每天每平方米人民币 58.1元(见表一)。 由于个别商场的部分楼面正在局部调 整,购物中心的整体空置率环比上升 0.4个百分点至14.8%(见表一)。 第三季度,我们预计上海主要商圈的整 体零售物业租金将保持稳定。 由于主要商圈新建购物中心供应有限, 主要购物中心的平均租金将继续上扬, 而街铺租金可能继续微跌。 计划在第三季度开业的购物中心有 位于黄浦区的LuOne凯德晶萃广场 (86,000平方米)、位于虹口区的白 玉兰广场(110,000平方米)和位于 浦东的置汇旭辉广场(130,000平方 米)。 法国巴黎的老佛爷百货将于年底在陆家 嘴中心L+Mall项目开业,营业面积约 在两万平方米左右。 开市客在中国大陆首个仓储式零售门店 也将于今年下半年落户浦东康桥。 2018年第二季度新开商 场面积超过30万平方米 二季度的上海零售物业供应和需求市场均告别 淡季,恢复活力,数座购物中心宣布开业,消 费需求日趋多元化。 表一 上海优质商铺市场参考指标 指标2018年第二季度数字按季变幅预测(2018年第三季) 新增供应320,200平方米不适用↗ 首层租金人民币58.1/平方米/天↓0.7%空置率14.8%↑0.4%↘ 资本价值人民币268,260 /平方米↑2.0%↗ 资料来源:莱坊研究部 。。。。。。