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汇丰银行_全球_投资策略_ESG观察:核心报告摘要_2019.2.4_30页

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1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告; 4、行研报告均为公开版,权利归原作者 所有,起点财经仅分发做内部学习。。 ESG ● GLOBAL4 February 20192Why the transport sector is next in tackling climate changeAll countries signed up to the 2015 Paris Agreement aim to limit global warming in 2100 to wellbelow 2C higher than in pre-industrial times, and ideally 1.5C. Now comes the hard work –bringing down greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) to achieve this.The power generation sector has, until now, been the focus of efforts to decarbonise economies– it’s the first frontier. But even dramatic success there won’t be enough to meet climate targetsalone. So we think the next global focus will be on reducing emissions in the transport sector.In our report, The second frontier: Why the transport sector is next in tackling climate change,15 January 2018, we created a Clean-Power-and-Transport-2040 scenario, which weabbreviate to CPT-2040. This scenario sees power generation fully decarbonised over the 2020to 2040 period – as renewable technologies such solar and wind replace fossil fuels ingeneration mixes – the first major step down in closing the ‘emissions gap’, which existsbetween business-as-usual GHG emissions and emissions consistent with 2C of warming atcentury end. This is a substantial first step, given power generation is responsible for about 27%of manmade GHGs. Next, our scenario incorporates a transport sector in which emissions falloverall by 76%, a number built up subsector-by-subsector.76%Transport emissions reduction in ourproprietary CPT-2040 scenarioSupportive policy, technological advances and cost improvements mean that electricity,hydrogen and biofuels can all replace oil as fuel feedstocks for different transport modes.Decarbonisation of transport is a crucial second step, given that the sector is responsible forover 15% of GHGs. Nevertheless, it is more challenging to achieve a low-carbon transition forcertain means of moving people and goods – in particular, for trucks, aviation and shipping.The second frontier Power generation has until now been at the centre of efforts to limitglobal warming We think the next focus for reducing emissions will be on thetransport sector Our proprietary model shows how cleaner transport can cutemissions and meet Paris Agreement goalsAshim PaunDirector, Climate ChangeStrategyHSBC Bank plcashim.paun@hsbcib+44 20 7992 3591Lucy Acton*ESG AnalystHSBC Bank plclucy.acton@hsbc+44 20 3359 3365Wai-Shin Chan, CFAHead, Climate Change Centre ofExcellenceThe Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limitedwai.shin.chan@hsbc.hk+852 2822 4870…and the Global Research team* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBCSecurities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsWhat will replace oil 3ESG ● GLOBAL4 February 2019The report is a collaborative note between HSBC Global Research’s equity sector teams and theHSBC Climate Change Centre of Excellence. Analysts from across our autos, capital goods,transport & logistics teams have described how technology and regulation catalysts can drive changein their areas of transport, and we have built these thoughts into the emissions computations for ourCPT-2040 scenario. Essentially, CPT-2040 combines zero-carbon electricity with low-carbontransport to demonstrate how the emissions gap can be substantially reduced. Overall, the gap for2C is closed by 72% of maximum warming at the median case (see chart below). The largeremissions gap, for the more ambitious target of 1.5C of warming, is closed by 48% by CPT-2040.Closing the emissions gap with clean power and transportSource: HSBC, UNEPSuch a significant transition will make substantial new demands on infrastructure. This, in turn,will drive investments in many sectors – with new components, equipment and infrastructureneeded for ships, trains, planes and road transport. The substantial investments required forclean transport form a core part of the trillions of dollars1 needed for new infrastructure thiscentury, whether aligned with limiting warming to 2C or not. However, these costs should beunderstood alongside the costs associated with not acting – a 2018 paper in Nature found thatthere is a 60% chance of such costs exceeding USD20trn by 21002.CPT-2040 is not a projection for what we think is most likely to happen – it is a scenario todemonstrate what we think is a more likely approach to closing the emissions gap. But what iscertain is that, if we don’t go beyond clean power and also tackle some of the sectors that areharder to address – like transportthen the climate impacts that we’re already seeing, such asrising temperatures, altered water cycles and more severe extreme weather events, will worsenalong with the associated socio-economic impacts.Our report considers structural catalysts that we think can increase the urgency of the transitiontowards cleaner transport: 1) carbon pricing; 2) strong action in countries that can’t achieveemission cuts from other sectors; 3) non-state actors; 4) health concerns over air pollution; and5) green bonds from public and corporate issuers to fund clean transport.For investors considering increasing their exposure to themes explored in our report, pleaserefer to our stock screen published alongside the report (see Transport: the second frontier –Finding opportunities from the HSBC Climate Solutions Database, 15 January 2019), whichincludes companies exposed to themes such as transport efficiency, energy storage, fuel cells,hydrogen gas and bio-energy.1 Such estimates have been provided by a number of institutions, including the World Bank, United Nations Environment Program andInternational Energy Agency. 2 Details of probabilities and discount rates applied found here: Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets,Burke M., Nature, 24 May 2018 (vol 557, pp. 549)0.0 15.0 30.0 45.0 60.0 75.0 200 0 200 2 200 4 200 6 200 8 201 0 201 2 201 4 201 6 201 8 202 0 202 2 202 4 202 6 202 8 203 0 203 2 203 4 203 6 203 8 204 0 1.5°C2°CCurrent PolicyHistorical Emission 1.5°C median2°C medianUnconditional INDCConditional INDC Current PolicyCPT-40 GtCO2e Emissionstrajectoryrequired for 2 C Emissions trajectoryrequired for 1.5 C 2 Crequires emissions to be 40& 21GtCO2ein 2030 & 2050respectively, at the median level 1.5 Crequires emissions to be 24 & 6 GtCO2e in 2030 & 2050respectively, median level 7.9GtCO2efromcleaner transport 18GtCO2efromclean power CPT-40 achieves 25.9GtCO2e reduction; closes2oC gap by 72% and 1.5oC gap by 48% Cost of action…and inactionA clean transport stockscreen ESG ● GLOBAL4 February 201942019 market outlook: rise of the ESG investor2019 is set to be the year of the ESG investor in fixed income. We expect continued growth in thegreen bond market as ESG comes to the forefront of fixed income investors’ minds, not leastbecause Moody’s and S&P will roll out governance and ESG scores for some bond issuers. Thisheightened FI focus on ESG will likely mean in particular that ‘pure play’ green bonds (greenbonds issued by green companies) should be high demand. Client focus on ESG integration maydrive demand for green, social and sustainability bonds, while the introduction of rating agencyESG scores may boost supply.2018 green bond YoY supply up 8%; sustainability up 87%The green bond market continued to grow in 2018 despite wider market volatility. USD149.2bn ofgreen bonds were issued in 2018 (excluding Fannie Mae multi-family green MBS), up 8.0% onthe USD138.1bn in 20173. 2018 green bond supply came within the lower end of our USD140bn-180bn estimate. Supply growth slowed due to market volatility in much of 2018, amove towards EM deleveraging and some green bond cannibalisation, as some entities chose toissue social or sustainability bonds instead of green (see Green Bond Insights: 2019 marketoutlook: Rise of the ESG investor, 9 January 2019).We expect USD140-180bn of green bond supply in 2019Source: HSBC, Dealogic, Bloomberg 3 This data is taken from our report Green Bond Insights, 9 January 20190 40 80 120 160 200 13141516171819f Iss uan ce(US Db n) Multi-LateralFinancialCorporatesSovereignSub-sovereignABSUS Municipal Green Bond Insights Green bond supply growth rate fell to 8% in 2018 on EMdeleveraging, market volatility and switch to sustainability bonds We anticipate USD140bn-180bn in green bonds supply in 2019 andUSD40bn-70bn in social and sustainability bonds We expect the FI ESG focus to intensify in 2019, which should boostdemand for sustainability bonds and ‘pure play’ green bondsMichael RidleyGreen Bonds & Corporate CreditAnalystHSBC Bank plcmichael.a.ridley@hsbc+44 20 7991 5918Peter BarnshawAnalyst, Credit StrategyHSBC Bank plcpeter.barnshaw@hsbc+44 20 7991 5022 。。。。。。