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Copyright 2018 RAND CorporationBy 2040, millennials will make up an even larger
segment of the population (see Figure 2). As these
young Americans become more prominent in all
felds—from politics to government to media to aca-
demia to business—their attitudes, preferences, and
beliefs will likely have increasing weight in public
discourse and U.S. policy (Weinbaum, Girven, and
Oberholtzer, 2016).
Although the millennials’ efects on U.S. society
have been widely discussed, their attitudes toward
security have not been carefully studied. Do millen-
nials’ attitudes toward security difer from the views
of previous generations And, if so, what do these
perceptions imply for U.S. security policy in 2040
Tis report attempts to answer these questions
based on anationally representative probability sam-
ple survey of 1,608 adult Americans conducted from
June to July 2017. Te survey was administered to a
sample of respondents on the RAND Corporation’s
American Life Panel (ALP), which is a group of about
6,000 Americans who are 18years of age or older.
Our sample included people ranging in age from
21to 71 as of 2017. We separated them into three
groups: baby boomers; members of Generation X, or
Generation X’ers; and millennials.
Te survey data revealed some statistically
signifcant diferences in the attitudes of younger
Americans toward economic and national security,
along with some notable continuities with the views
of older Americans. In general, younger people
reported being more worried about economic secu-
rity and less worried about national security than
older Americans. Tey were also less likely to report
that living in a democracy is very important to them,
while older Americans were more likely to report that
this was very important to them. Millennials were
also the least concerned about illegal immigration,
the federal budget defcit, or increasing the size of
the U.S. Armed Forces as security issues. Tey were
also less concerned than their elders about protecting
the United States against terrorist attacks or halting
the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
(WMD).
However, on other security issues (i.e., protecting
the privacy of U.S. citizens, investing in worker train-
ing and education programs, protecting civil rights
for minorities, expanding public benefts for families
M
illennials, those born between 1982
and 2000, are the largest segment of
the U.S. population, with 84.3 million
people (U.S. Census Bureau, 2015;
2017a). In 2015, they began to out-
number baby boomers, the 75.4 million Americans
born between 1946 and 1964. As shown in Figure 1,
millennials also outnumber those over the age of 70
and under the age of 15.
FIGURE 1
U.S. Population by Age Group, 2016
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015.
NOTE: The Census Bureau does not define post–baby boom
generations. The RAND survey looked at millennials born between
1982 and 1996 because the youngest person in our sample was born
in 1996.
Post-millennial
(born after 2000)
20%
Millennial
(1982–2000)
26%Generation X
(1965–1981)
22%
Baby boom
(1946–1964)
23%
Pre-baby boom
(born before 1946)
9%
Although millennials’
effects on U.S.
society have been
widely discussed,
their attitudes toward
security have not been
carefully studied.FIGURE 2
Millennials in the U.S. Population, 2014–2040
100,000,000
90,000,000
80,000,000
70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
020142016201820202022202420262028203020322034203620382040
Millennials
Generation X’ers
Baby boomers
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017b, Table 9.
NOTE: These trend lines represent extrapolations based on Census Bureau groupings of ages, which may not align with other popular definitions
of generations.
Baby boomers
are the estimated 75.4 million
people who were born between 1946 and 1964.
At the time of the survey in June and July
2017, they were ages 53 to 71.
Generation X’ers
are the estimated 70.1 mil-
lion people born between 1965 and 1981. As of
2017, they were ages 36 to 52.
Millennials
are the estimated 84.3 million
people born between 1982 and 2000. As of
2017, they were ages 17 to 35. For our sample,
the youngest person was born in 1996, making
him or her 21 years old in 2017.
Millennials’ attitudes might be shaped by such
events as the September 11, 2001, (9/11) terrorist
attacks and the 2008–2009 Great Recession, while
those coming of age in the 1960s might be infu-
enced by the Cuban Missile Crisis or the Vietnam
War (Carlsson and Karlsson, 1970). Some research
fnds that critical periods in the past can afect one’s
attitudes in the future (Schuman and Corning,
2012). Tus, people’s recollections of past events
(e.g., 9/11 terrorist attacks, the Vietnam War, or the
Cuban Missile Crisis) might afect their views today.
in need, global climate change), millennials and older
respondents did not difer notably in their attitudes,
and diferences among respondents more strongly
patterned with factors other than age.
Tis report provides detailed analysis of the
survey data and what might explain these diferences.
It examines the question of what defnes a generation
and whether millennials display generational difer-
ences in their views of security when compared with
older Americans. It also explores the implications for
policymakers looking ahead to 2040.
Te defnition of a
generation
is murky, and the
defnition of a
millennial
even more so. As we will
explain, there is little consensus about when some
generations begin and end, or what seminal events
infuence and unite the people born during those
years. To understand the implications of our fnd-
ings, therefore, requires a more nuanced analysis that
includes precise defnitions of such terms as
security
and
generation
, labels that are widely used but ofen
with vague or conficting meanings.
For the purposes of this study, we defned the
generations as follows (estimates are as of 2016):who are born in the same year. Te U.S. Census
Bureau defnes a
generation
as a group of cohorts that
share a statistically meaningful demographic event.
Te baby boom generation is the only generation
that is ofcially defned, because the Census Bureau
classifes the increase in birth rates afer World
WarII as a meaningful demographic event. An
estimated 16.1 million Americans served in World
War II between 1941 and 1945. When the war ended,
many returned home and had children. Figure 3 dis-
plays the birth rate per 1,000 Americans from 1909
to 2015. Te birth rate in 1945 was 20.4, increasing
to 24.1 births per 1,000 people in 1946. Tat was the
largest increase on record by the National Center for
Health Statistics. U.S. birth rates remained above
these 1945 levels until 1965, when they dropped to
19.4 births per 1,000 people.
Te Census Bureau defnes the cohort born
between mid-1946 and mid-1964 as the baby boom
generation because it was a unique epoch of elevated
births, producing a birth cohort that was much
larger than in the previous quarter-century and that
remained large for another 30years.
In popular culture, however, the defnition of a
generation
is a group of cohorts who share a mean-
ingful life experience. For example, many men from
what is now dubbed the “Greatest Generation” (born
Nevertheless, our data did not support the popular
characterization of millennials as a generation with
attitudes uniquely diferent from their predecessors.
Rather, on most issues, millennial attitudes fell along
a spectrum that aligns with broader trends of how
Americans’ views tend to change with their age and
stage of life.
We therefore hypothesize that “age” is a more
meaningful category than “generation” and that
popular characterizations of “millennial” attitudes,
at least toward security, should be viewed with some
skepticism. Where millennial attitudes difer from
those of other Americans, we must also consider
whether their views are inherently diferent because
of their specifc shared life experiences (a
genera-
tional efect
), or whether millennials are diferent
from baby boomers because the young are diferent
from the old (a
youth efect
). Our data tend to suggest
the latter.
What Is in a Generation
Te word “generation” means one thing in popular
culture and something entirely diferent to demog-
raphers, who prefer to use the term “birth cohort.” A
birth cohort
, or
cohort
for short, is a group of people
FIGURE 3
U.S. Birth Rates per 1,000 People, 1909–2015
35
30
2515519091919192919391949195919691979198919992009
SOURCE: National Center for Health Statistics, 2018.
NOTE: Red bars approximately represent the approximate start and end of the baby boom, from 1946 to 1964.。。。