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iii
Preface
Research done at the RAND Corporation and elsewhere over the past several years has iden-
tifed some serious shortcomings in the ability of programmed U.S. forces to meet emerging
challenges. Prominent among these challenges are those posed by the growth of advanced
anti-access/area denial threats in the arsenals of U.S. adversaries, Russia’s use of military power
against neighboring European states, North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons, and the
spread of violent Salafst-jihadi ideology with the emergence of the quasi-state Islamic State
in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Individually, each of these developments places stress on U.S. and
allied military capabilities. Collectively, they represent the major elements of an international
security environment that is more complex and more dangerous than that to which Americans
have been accustomed since the end of the Cold War.
Tese developments should be important factors in the Trump administration’s review
of National Defense Strategy. Tey should also prompt a reconsideration of the Budget
Control Act of 2011, which became law before some of these threats became manifest. Clearly,
the Trump administration will need to reassess the nation’s defense strategy, posture, and
program with an eye toward fnding a better balance than exists today between the ambitions
embodied in the strategy and the resources devoted to it. Tis report is ofered as a contribu-
tion to that efort.
Tis report should be of interest to defense policymakers, practitioners in the executive
and legislative branches, analysts, the media, experts in nongovernmental organizations, and
those concerned with defense planning and the role of the United States in international secu-
rity afairs.
Tis research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center
of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and develop-
ment center sponsored by the Ofce of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staf, the Unifed
Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense
Intelligence Community. Funding for this study was provided, in part, by donors and by the
independent research and development provisions of RAND’s contracts for the operation of its
U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and development centers.
For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center,
see /nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp or contact the director (contact information is pro-
vided on the web page).
v
Contents
Preface ...........iii
Figures ...........vii
Tables ix
Summary ........xi
Acknowledgments .......xvii
Abbreviations ..xix
CHAPTER ONE
Te Need for a New Approach to Force Planning ........1
Te Challenge Facing U.S. Forces and Teir Capability to Respond ..1
Tis Report .......2
Approach in Tis Report ....3
Organization of Tis Report 5
CHAPTER TWO
China: Ensuring Access to the Air and Sea Commons and Sustaining Capabilities for
Efective Power Projection Operations ....7
Background and Purpose ...7
High Stakes and Unfavorable Trends ..8
Scenario: An Invasion of Taiwan, Circa 2020 ...14
Additional Regional Challenges in Northeast and Southeast Asia ....19
Implications for Force Planning ......27
CHAPTER THREE
Responding to Russia’s Remilitarization of Geopolitics in Europe ..........31
Background and Purpose ..31
New Security Trends in Europe .......32
Scenario: Defending the Baltic States ...........36
Te Hybrid Treat .........42
Actions the Baltic States Can Take to Enhance Security ..43
Te Black Sea Region ......44
Implications for Force Planning .......45
CHAPTER FOUR
Countering a Nuclear-Armed North Korea ...49
Background and Purpose ..49。。。。。。。。。