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最新第一季度北京写字楼物业市场研究高力

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文本描述
cOlliers internatiOnal2
The Knowledge Report |First Quarter|2009|BeijingOffce Property
In this quarter, the global fnancial crisis resulted in a sharp decrease
in demand for high quality offce space. The net absorption of the
overall Beijing offce market in 1Q09 crashed by 87.8% q-o-q to 28,229
sqm, of which the Grade A and Grade B offce sectors accounted for
27,595 sqm and 634 sqm, respectively. Facing the pressure of cutting
corporate operation costs, many tenants began to seek for opportunities
to reconstruct leasing expenditures, generating a signifcant increase
of site inspections during the quarter. However, the number of leasing
transaction was limited with some major large transactions taking
place in those low rental offce properties in non-traditional offce
submarkets. For example, Datang Telecom Technology leased 5,000
sqm in the America Business Center. Most offce submarkets registered
negative net absorption except for Finance Street, in which area many
new fnancial institutions continued to expand and set up their offces,
such as Bank of New York and BGC Partners.
本季内,高档写字楼的需求在全球金融危机下锐减。2009年第一季度北
京写字楼总体市场的净吸纳量跌至28,229平方米,按季下跌高达87.8%
其中,甲级写字楼和乙级写字楼的净吸纳量分别为27,595平方米和634
平方米。面对公司削减运营成本的压力,许多租户开始寻求机会重置其
租赁成本,季内看房客户显著增多。然而,实际成交案例极为有限,主
要大单限于非传统主要写字楼区域内租金水平较低的写字楼。例如,大
唐电信在北美商务中心租赁了5,000平方米的面积。除金融街子市场外,
主要写字楼子市场季内均录得负净吸纳量。金融街子市场主要受益于许
多新的金融机构继续在此区域扩张设立办公地点,如纽约银行和BGC
Partners
deMand需求
While most MNC tenants compressed their offce operation budgets,
the pressure of getting suffcient tenants on landlords’ shoulders became
larger, resulting in an apparent decrease in asking rents across the board
with some cases down by as much as 20%. Also, more concessions
in rentals and leasing terms were introduced to maintain and attract
tenants under the ongoing global economic meltdown and its impact
on the occupational demand for offce space. As a consequence, the
overall average net effective rent of Beijing offce market (including
Grade A and Grade B) continued to fall by 4.79% q-o-q. As the pace
of dwindling demand size and new completions continued in the CBD,
the rental level of the submarket was knocked down by 4.30% q-o-q,
lower than Finance Street, East Chang An Avenue and East 2nd Ring.
The Lufthansa area recorded its largest rental plummet in the past fve
years with a 6.58% q-o-q decline in 1Q09. Although the clientele of
the Finance Street submarket differentiated from other precincts, the
resized demand also resulted in a rental decrease of 3.26% q-o-q.
由于许多跨国公司压缩其办公运营预算,业主吸引租户的压力增大,因
此普遍降低租金报价,部分降幅高达20%。众多业主已开始在租金和租约
中作出让步,以期在全球性经济持续下滑并对对本地写字楼需求造成冲
击的背景下维持现有租户和吸引新租户。北京写字楼市场(包括甲级和
乙级)总体平均净租金继续下降,环比下跌4.79%。受需求减小和大量新
增供应的共同影响,CBD区域租金环比下降4.3%,目前低于金融街、东
长安街和东二环区域三个区域的租金水平。燕莎区域租金在2009年第一
季度出现近五年来的最大环比下跌,达到6.58%。尽管金融街子市场的租
户类别不同于其他区域,需求的变化也使其租金环比下降3.26%
rents租金
Figure 1Overall Supply & Demand of the Beijing Offce Market
图1北京写字楼市场总体供给和需求
Figure 2New Supply & Net Absorption of the Beijing Offce Market
图2北京写字楼市场新增供应量和净吸纳量
Source: Research & Advisory, Colliers International Beijing
数据来源:北京高力国际研究与咨询部
Source: Research & Advisory, Colliers International Beijing
数据来源:北京高力国际研究与咨询部
Of this, the stock of the Grade A sector and Grade B sector were
4,215,930 sqm and 6,552,476 sqm, accounting for 39.15% and 60.85%,
up 11.49% and 15.74% y-o-y, respectively. The overall vacancy rate
of the Beijing offce market increased by 1.11 percentage points q-o-q
to 19.11% in 1Q09. The CBD and the East 2nd Ring areas recorded
1.60 and 1.91 percentage point increments in vacancy rate, spiking at
25.81% and 16.42% in 1Q09, respectively.
其中,甲级写字楼市场存量为4,215,930平方米,同比增长11.49%,占
总存量的39.15%;乙级写字楼市场存量为6,552,476平方米,同比上升
15.74%,占总存量的60.85%。北京写字楼市场整体空置率在2009年第
一季度环比上升1.11个百分点至19.11%。其中CBD区域和东二环区域
的空置率上升较为明显,环比分别上升1.60个百分点和1.91个百分点至
25.81%和16.42%
cOlliers internatiOnal3
The Knowledge Report |First Quarter|2009|BeijingOffce Property
inVestMent投资
Overall, the investment market was quiet in 1Q09. The sales transaction
volume was signifcantly down in the last three quarters in Beijing.
During the quarter, there was only one en bloc sales transaction in the
Grade B offce market whilst no deals were concluded in the Grade A
sector. Sinopec Beijing Oil Products Company signed an agreement
with Citychamp Dartong for the purchase of GC Midtown A1 Offce
Building for RMB344 million. Although the prospects of the overall real
estate market were gloomy temporarily, many long-term institutional
investors stated that real estate property prices should be declining in
China with an expectation of hitting the bottom in 2009, and planned
to re-focus on or to consider investing in value-adding opportunities for
distressed commercial properties in the Tier I cities.
总体来看,投资市场相对平静,过去三个季度内北京写字楼投资市场的
交易量大幅下降。季内,甲级写字楼没有整售交易浮现市场,乙级写字
楼仅录得一笔整售交易。中国石化北京石油分公司从冠城大通以3.44亿元
人民币购得冠城名敦道A1写字楼。尽管房地产总体市场前景暂不乐观,
许多长线机构投资者表示中国房地产的价格已经处于下跌中,并认为
2009年可能触底。他们计划重新关注或考虑投资一线城市内具有升值空
间的商用物业
Figure 3Rents of the Beijing Offce Market by Sector
图3北京写字楼市场各级物业租金
Figure 4Rents of the Beijing Offce Market by Submarket in 1Q09
图42009年第一季度北京写字楼子市场租金
Source: Research & Advisory, Colliers International Beijing
数据来源:北京高力国际研究与咨询部
Source: Research & Advisory, Colliers International Beijing
数据来源:北京高力国际研究与咨询部
OutlOOk展望
The local government released a bunch of economic stimulus policies
to boost Beijing’s economy and to attract companies to register in
their districts. For example, The Beijing Administration for Industry
and Commerce enacted 22 measures as well to create a favourable
environment for foreign enterprises. The Chaoyang District government
introduced
the Supplementary Measures of the Administration of the
Funds for the Development of the Financial Industry in the Chaoyang
District
to attract fnancial institutions and also set up nearly RMB100
million in subsidies through rental rebates and tax refunds for senior
executives for fnancial institutions located in the District.
北京市政府出台了一系列刺激经济发展和吸引企业注册和落户政策。包
括北京市工商局颁布22条措施,为外资企业创造宽松发展环境;朝阳区
政府新出台《<朝阳区促进金融产业发展专项资金管理暂行办法补充办
法》等多种政策吸引金融企业入驻,同时设置亿元专项资金,对入驻该
区的金融机构提供租金补贴、高管退税等补贴支持
Property物业项目Transaction Type交易类型Tenant / Purchaser租户 / 买家Submarket区域GFA (sqm)建筑面积(平方米)
GC Midtown A1 Offce Building冠城名敦道A1写字楼Purchase购买Sinopec Beijing Oil Products Company中石化北京石油分公司Others其他25,500
America Business Center北美商务中心Lease租赁Datang Telecom大唐电信Others其他5,000
West Wing Offce, China World Trade Center国贸西楼Lease租赁AdobeCBD4,000
Sun Dong An Plaza新东安写字楼Lease租赁CITIC-Prudential信诚人寿保险East Chang An Avenue东长安街3,000
Mapletree Tower丰树大厦Lease租赁Sharp China夏普商贸(中国)有限公司CBD2,500
Table1Major Offce Market Transactions in 1Q09
表12009年第一季度北京写字楼市场主要成交案例
Source: Research & Advisory, Colliers International Beijing
数据来源:北京高力国际研究与咨询部
cOntact inFOrMatiOn
this report and other research materials may be found on
our website at .Questions related to
information herein should be directed to the research &
advisory department at the number indicated above.this
document has been prepared by colliers international
for advertising and general information only.colliers
international makes no guarantees, representations or
warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding
the information including, but not limited to, warranties of
content, accuracy and reliability.any interested party should
undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the
information.colliers international excludes unequivocally
all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties
arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss
and damages arising there from.colliers international is a
worldwide affliation of independently owned and operated
companies.
/china
The Knowledge Report |First Quarter|2009|BeijingOffce Property
293 OFFices in 61 cOuntries On 6
cOntinents
usa 99
canada 19
latin america 18
asia Pacifc 62
eMea 95
$2 billion in annual revenue
80.6 million square meters under management
11,000 Professionals
amanda gao
Managing Director
North China
Tel:86 10 85181633
Fax: 86 10 85181638
amanda.gao@Colliers
carlby Xie
Associate Director
Research and Advisory
North China
Tel:86 10 85181590
Fax: 86 10 85181638
carlby.xie@Colliers
colliers international Property services
(Beijing) co., ltd.
Suite 502, Tower W3, Oriental Plaza,
No.1, East Chang An Avenue,
Dong Cheng District, Beijing, 100738, P. R. China
The Science and Technology Commission
of the Chaoyang District Government
also launched 11 initiatives to support the
development of new high-tech enterprises.
All of these plans are expected to lessen
the burden of companies in the market
that is in the down cycle. According to the
Beijing CBD Management Committee, the
government will continue to launch more
subsidy packages to help enterprises and
stabilise the offce market in 2009.
朝阳区科委也推出11项措施支持高新企业的
发展。这些政策都有利于在目前下滑市场环
境中减轻企业的负担。据CBD管委会的消
息,2009年内,政府还将继续发放更多的补
贴来支持这些企业的发展,同时维持写字楼市
场的稳定
While many MNCs have either put
relocation decisions on hold or chosen to
renew offce leasing contracts, some offce
tenants from other sectors such as the fnance,
multinational pharmaceutical and domestic
manufacturing leaders should remain active
in expanding in Beijing. According to the
Government of Chaoyang District, about 40
fnancial institutions will set up their offces
in the Chaoyang District in 2009, including
National Australia Bank and Bank of New
Zealand. Mainland China and Taiwan are
expected to reach an agreement in the frst
half of 2009 and a dozen Taiwan banks
should have the aspirations of establishing
branches in the mainland market in 2009. In
addition, the Aviation Industry Corporation
of China has signed an agreement to set up
its three major subsidiaries in Beijing and
many follow-the-leader suppliers and traders
should enter Beijing thereafter.
目前的市场环境下,许多跨国企业选择了续约
或暂缓其搬迁计划。但是一些金融机构、跨国
医药公司和内资制造业巨头仍然积极地在北京
扩张。根据朝阳区政府的统计,今年朝阳区还
将新增包括澳大利亚银行、新西兰银行等在内
的40余家金融企业。而台湾与中国内地预期
将达成协议,将有至多12家台湾银行得以从
2009年开始在大陆设立分公司开展业务。此
外,中国航空工业集团签约,其下辖的三家主
要分公司将落户北京,相关行业的供应商和贸
易商也将跟随进驻北京
It is expected that the Beijing offce market
should receive approximately 1,508,162 sqm
and 841,085 sqm new supplies (including
Grade A and Grade B) by the ends of
2009 and 2010, respectively. Considering
the infux of new completions in the next
two years, the relocation factors by some
companies from the manufacturing sector,
and the negative impacts of the global
fnancial crisis, the overall vacancy rate of
the Beijing offce market is forecast to rocket
in 2009 and 2010. Of the six prime offce
submarkets, the CBD area should continue
to have the largest future supply of 746,875
sqm over the next three years.
预计至2009年和2010年年末,北京写字楼市
场(包括甲级和乙级)的新增供给将分别达到
1,508,162平方米和841,085平方米。考虑到未
来两年的大量新增供给、全球金融危机的负面
影响,北京写字楼市场的空置率预计在2009
年和2010年将会攀升至更高水平。在六个主
要写字楼子市场中,CBD区域的未来供应最
多,预计未来三年将有746,875平方米的新增
供给
Although there were no en bloc sales
transactions in the Grade A offce market over
the last two quarters, investment activities by
overseas and domestic institutional investors
should remain active. The recent new funds
launched targeting at China real estate
market should catalyse the recovery of the
investment market in the locality.
尽管北京甲级写字楼市场在过去两个季度内没
有浮现整售交易,海外和国内机构投资者在市
场中仍较为活跃。最近募集的多个针对中国房
地产市场的基金也预示着本地投资市场即将复
苏。。。。。。。。。。