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文本描述
December 18, 2018 07:00 PM GMT
Cross-Asset Dispatches | Europe
MORGAN STANLEY & CO. INTERNATIONAL PLC+
Andrew Sheets
STRATEGIST Andrew.Sheets@morganstanley +44 20 7677-2905
Notes from the Road
After a month of marketing our 2019 outlook, we review investor sentiment and pushback what seems most in consensus, and what has surprised us the most.
What's consensus: Caution on 2019, USD to peak (but not yet), US 10-year rates fail to break 3.25%, wider credit spreads, EM equities outperform the US, but US equities outperform Japan and Europe. EUR weaker and JPY stronger. What surprised us the most: How quickly investors have changed their view of where rates will end this cycle. How little Japan came up in conversations. The lack of clear equity sector favourites. Where we differ: Investors are sceptical of our view that US equities, growth equities, and the USD could all underperform under difficult conditions next year. We felt that we also sound more bullish on Europe than investors, expecting growth to be in line with 2018, and the ECB to hike once next year. Our last report for 2018: It's been quite a year, and we think many investors will say `good riddance'. We wish our readers a happy and restful holiday season, and best of luck in the year ahead.
Exhibit 1: 2018: A historically bad year
Ranking 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Phanikiran L Naraparaju
STRATEGIST Phanikiran.Naraparaju@morganstanley +44 20 7677-5065
Serena W Tang
STRATEGIST Serena.Tang@morganstanley +44 20 7677-1149
Wanting Low
STRATEGIST Wanting.Low@morganstanley +44 20 7425-6841
Naomi Z Poole
STRATEGIST Naomi.Poole@morganstanley +44 20 7425-9714
Recent Research:
2019 Global Strategy Outlook: The Turning Point, November 25, 2018 Cross-Asset Dispatches: Bond-Equity Correlations Are Changing, November 18, 2018 Cross-Asset Dispatches: The Bear Market Almanac 2018 Edition, November 12, 2018 Cross-Asset Dispatches: Short Term (Markets) and Long Term (Inflation), October 28, 2018
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
REITS MSCI EM MSCI Europe Russell 2000 MSCI Japan Inflation Bonds Global HY Commodities EM$Sov Credit US HY S&P 500 US IG US Agg. Bond US 10yr EM Local Debt MSCI China US 2yr
MSCI EM Commodities MSCI Japan MSCI China EM$Sov Credit REITS MSCI Europe S&P 500 Russell 2000 Global HY EM Local Debt US HY US Agg. Bond US 10yr US IG US 2yr Inflation Bonds
MSCI China REITS MSCI Europe MSCI EM Russell 2000 S&P 500 Commodities Global HY US HY EM$Sov Credit Inflation Bonds MSCI Japan US Agg. Bond US IG US 2yr US 10yr EM Local Debt
MSCI China MSCI EM Commodities MSCI Europe Inflation Bonds US 10yr US 2yr US Agg. Bond EM$Sov Credit S&P 500 US IG EM Local Debt Global HY US HY Russell 2000 MSCI Japan REITS
US 10yr US 2yr US Agg. Bond EM Local Debt US IG Inflation Bonds EM$Sov Credit US HY Global HY Commodities MSCI Japan Russell 2000 S&P 500 REITS MSCI Europe MSCI China MSCI EM
MSCI EM MSCI China Global HY US HY Commodities MSCI Europe EM$Sov Credit REITS Russell 2000 S&P 500 US IG EM Local Debt Inflation Bonds MSCI Japan US Agg. Bond US 2yr US 10yr
REITS Russell 2000 Commodities MSCI EM MSCI Japan US HY S&P 500 Global HY EM Local Debt EM$Sov Credit US 10yr US IG US Agg. Bond MSCI China MSCI Europe Inflation Bonds US 2yr
US 10yr Inflation Bonds EM$Sov Credit US IG US Agg. Bond REITS US HY Global HY S&P 500 US 2yr EM Local Debt Russell 2000 Commodities MSCI Europe MSCI Japan MSCI EM MSCI China
MSCI China MSCI Europe Global HY REITS MSCI EM EM$Sov Credit Russell 2000 S&P 500 US HY EM Local Debt US IG Inflation Bonds MSCI Japan US Agg. Bond US 10yr Commodities US 2yr
Russell 2000 S&P 500 MSCI Japan MSCI Europe US HY Global HY MSCI China REITS US 2yr US IG US Agg. Bond MSCI EM Inflation Bonds EM Local Debt US 10yr EM$Sov Credit Commodities
REITS S&P 500 US 10yr MSCI China US IG EM$Sov Credit US Agg. Bond Russell 2000 Inflation Bonds US HY US 2yr Global HY MSCI EM EM Local Debt MSCI Japan MSCI Europe Commodities
MSCI Japan REITS US 10yr EM$Sov Credit S&P 500 US 2yr US Agg. Bond US IG MSCI Europe Global HY Russell 2000 US HY Inflation Bonds MSCI China EM Local Debt MSCI EM Commodities
Commodities Russell 2000 US HY Global HY S&P 500 MSCI EM EM$Sov Credit REITS US IG EM Local Debt Inflation Bonds MSCI Japan US Agg. Bond MSCI China US 2yr US 10yr MSCI Europe
MSCI China MSCI EM MSCI Europe MSCI Japan S&P 500 Russell 2000 EM Local Debt Global HY EM$Sov Credit REITS Inflation Bonds Commodities US HY US IG US Agg. Bond US 10yr US 2yr
US 2yr US HY US Agg. Bond US 10yr REITS US IG S&P 500 Global HY Inflation Bonds EM$Sov Credit EM Local Debt Commodities Russell 2000 MSCI Japan MSCI Europe MSCI EM MSCI China
Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research; Note: We compute annual returns minus US headline inflation. Green means returns (in USD) beat inflation, and red means returns trailed inflation. 2018 data as of December 17, 2018.
Due to the nature of the fixed income market, the issuers or bonds of the issuers recommended or discussed in this report may not be continuously followed. Accordingly, investors must regard this report as providing stand-alone analysis and should not expect continuing analysis or additional reports relating to such issuers or bonds of the issuers. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.15+
2 3 4500+
Notes from the Road
We've spent the better part of the last month talking to investors about the year ahead. What follows below is how we'd frame the most common questions, pushback, and views going into 2019.
Caution reigns: Investors, we feel safe to say, are not optimistic about the year ahead. Most cite similar concerns to our own about 2019: slower growth, stubborn core inflation, tighter policy, smaller balance sheets, and ongoing political/trade risks. It's possible that the best thing we can say about the year ahead is that investors are entering it far more aware of risks (and with markets at lower price/valuation points) than 12 months ago.
Sentiment is usually bearish in a bear market (for obvious reasons), and while negativity was a great buy signal in early 2012 and 2016, it failed miserably in 2008. We'd like to see signs of real panic or capitulation, such as VIX above 25%, the Morgan Stanley Global Risk Demand index below -2, and/or a signal from our CANARI model to argue for higher exposure on the grounds of positioning alone, and the lack of such panic has been a notable oddity of the last month. Widespread caution, however, is also a good reminder that we need to keep an open mind about the year ahead, especially as valuations improve.
Exhibit 2: Morgan Stanley global risk demand index (GRDI) not in 'fear' territory yet Exhibit 3: Retail sentiment is starting to trend lower
Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research; Note: Global Risk Demand Index US Pat. 7,617,143
Source: AAII, Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research
What part of the year worries you most
We think the biggest challenge lies in the 1st quarter, where a misalignment in US earnings and growth risk create a major dilemma. 1Q19 earnings face the sha