1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；
4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者
所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习
US Softlines Retail 19 February 2019Contents
Quick reference tables ......... 2
Earnings calendar . 2
UBS Estimates vs. Consensus ........ 3
Softlines valuation table ... 3
American Eagle (AEO): We see neutral event ahead ........ 4
Foot Locker (FL): Lean bullish .......... 7
Gap Inc. (GPS): Lean bearish .......... 10
Nordstrom (JWN): We lean slightly bearish ......... 13
Kohl's (KSS): We see a neutral event ahead ........ 16
L Brands (LB): We see a neutral event ahead ....... 19
Macy's (M): We see a neutral event ahead .......... 22
Ross Stores (ROST): Lean very slightly bullish ..... 25
TJX (TJX): Lean very slightly bullish .......... 28
Quick reference tables
Earnings calendar
Figure 1: Earnings calendar
Source:Company data, FactSet, UBS Research
CompanyTickerDateDayTime
American EagleAEO3/6/2019WednesdayTBD
Foot LockerFL3/1/2019FridayBMO
GapGPS2/28/2019ThursdayAMC
NordstromJWN2/28/2019ThursdayAMC
Kohl'sKSS3/5/2019TuesdayBMO
L BrandsLB2/27/2019WednesdayAMC
Macy'sM2/26/2019TuesdayBMO
Ross StoresROST2/28/2019ThursdayTBD
TJXTJX2/27/2019WednesdayBMO
US Softlines Retail 19 February 2019UBS Estimates vs. Consensus
Figure 2: UBS estimates vs. consensus
Source:FactSet, UBS estimates
Softlines valuation table
Figure 3: Softlines valuation table
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
FQ1UBSConsensusDifferenceFQ2UBSConsensusDifferenceFY1UBSConsensusDifference
AEO$0.43$0.42+3.3%AEO$0.22$0.24-6.1%AEO$1.48$1.47+1.0%
FL$1.44$1.39+3.6%FL$1.62$1.62+0.4%FL$4.60$4.54+1.2%
GPS$0.69$0.69-0.3%GPS$0.33$0.41-17.9%GPS$2.55$2.56-0.3%
JWN$1.42$1.43-0.2%JWN$0.52$0.54-3.5%JWN$3.56$3.56+0.1%
KSS$2.19$2.18+0.8%KSS$0.61$0.71-13.8%KSS$5.53$5.54-0.3%
LB$2.06$2.07-0.6%LB$0.11$0.13-14.4%LB$2.73$2.75-0.5%
M$2.54$2.55-0.7%M$0.41$0.39+5.3%M$4.00$4.01-0.4%
ROST$1.14$1.13+0.7%ROST$1.20$1.18+1.4%ROST$4.20$4.19+0.2%
TJX$0.70$0.68+2.0%TJX$0.56$0.58-2.7%TJX$2.45$2.45+0.2%
UBSPriceMkt. Val.PriceReturnYTDSales Growth (est.)UBS EPS (est.)P/E5-yr. EPSPEGFCF YieldEV/EBITDAEV/SalesDiv. YieldTickerRating2/17/19($M)Targetto PTPerf.FY0FY1FY2FY0FY1FY2FY0FY1FY2CAGR (e)FY1FY2FY1FY2FY1FY2(FY1)(FY1)
JWNBuy$44.44$7,436$66.0048.5%-6.2%5%3%3%$2.90$3.56$3.8815.3x12.5x11.5x13.8%0.90.87.9%9.4%5.5x5.3x0.6x3.3%CPRIBuy44.496,79075.0068.6%-29.3%5%11%18%4.524.924.949.9x9.0x9.0x9.2%1.01.09.7%10.6%6.3x5.8x1.4x0.0%
TPRBuy35.9110,41352.0044.8%-18.8%31%3%4%2.642.562.9513.6x14.0x12.2x9.5%1.51.37.0%8.3%8.3x7.5x1.7x3.8%AEOBuy20.073,54128.0039.5%6.8%5%6%6%1.161.481.7017.4x13.6x11.8x14.2%1.00.86.6%7.7%6.2x5.6x0.8x3.0%
SKXBuy32.994,41737.0012.2%-12.8%11%7%6%1.922.262.5017.2x14.6x13.2x10.4%1.41.33.3%6.1%7.7x7.1x0.9x0.0%PVHBuy112.908,550145.0028.4%-17.7%9%7%2%7.949.5510.5014.2x11.8x10.8x11.1%1.11.0NANA8.8x8.1x1.2xNA
TIFNeutral90.8311,07290.00-0.9%-12.6%4%7%2%4.134.724.9022.0x19.3x18.5x8.0%2.42.33.9%4.4%11.3x10.7x2.6x2.4%NKENeutral85.38107,47486.000.7%36.5%6%9%6%2.392.723.2535.8x31.4x26.3x14.0%2.21.94.0%4.4%22.0x19.3x3.4x0.9%
LULUNeutral151.0918,528148.00-2.0%92.3%13%24%15%2.593.804.5558.4x39.8x33.2x24.4%1.61.42.0%2.9%23.3x19.5x5.9x0.0%VFCNeutral86.9034,37885.00-2.2%17.4%12%12%4%3.143.814.2527.6x22.8x20.5x12.4%1.81.64.2%4.9%16.5x15.3x2.7x2.2%
KSSNeutral65.9310,88772.009.2%21.6%7%1%1%4.185.535.7015.8x11.9x11.6x7.8%1.51.514.2%11.7%5.7x5.6x0.7x3.7%ROSTNeutral94.0134,83995.001.1%17.1%10%6%7%3.554.204.5026.5x22.4x20.9x10.0%2.22.14.3%4.5%13.8x13.1x2.3x1.0%
UAANeutral21.168,27923.008.7%46.6%4%4%5%0.270.350.5078.2x59.9x42.7x28.5%2.11.52.3%2.4%23.6x19.4x1.9x0.0%MNeutral24.887,65026.004.5%-1.2%-3%0%0%3.794.003.506.6x6.2x7.1x-2.7%NMNM16.7%14.0%4.4x5.0x0.5x6.1%
FLNeutral59.296,69359.00-0.5%26.5%0%1%1%4.114.604.9014.4x12.9x12.1x5.0%2.62.47.8%7.5%6.7x6.6x0.8x2.3%CRINeutral90.104,13187.00-3.4%-23.3%6%1%3%5.756.026.4015.7x15.0x14.1x6.5%2.32.25.8%6.2%9.9x9.8x1.4x2.0%
GPSNeutral25.079,56326.505.7%-26.4%2%5%1%2.132.552.5011.8x9.8x10.0x5.3%1.91.98.8%8.0%5.0x5.0x0.6x3.9%LBNeutral27.347,52227.500.6%-54.6%0%5%1%3.202.732.748.5x10.0x10.0x0.9%NMNM9.2%8.5%6.8x6.8x1.0x8.9%
HBINeutral18.776,78419.503.9%-10.2%5%2%-2%1.741.791.8510.8x10.5x10.2x3.3%3.13.09.0%10.7%9.3x9.5x1.5x3.3%RLNeutral125.096,597127.001.5%20.6%-7%2%2%6.037.057.7520.7x17.7x16.2x8.9%2.01.86.7%9.9%8.6x8.2x1.4x1.9%
TJXSell50.2362,16142.00-16.4%31.4%8%9%5%1.982.452.5225.4x20.5x19.9x7.9%2.62.54.1%4.4%12.5x12.3x1.6x1.5%BURLSell162.8110,975133.00-18.3%32.3%9%10%8%5.776.467.0028.2x25.2x23.3x9.5%2.62.43.6%4.2%15.0x13.6x1.8x0.0%
Industry average6.6%6.1%4.5%22.4x18.7x16.6x9.9%1.9x1.7x6.7%7.2%10.8x10.0x1.6x2.4%Industry median5.6%5.4%3.8%16.5x14.3x12.7x9.3%1.9x1.7x6.6%7.5%8.7x8.1x1.4x2.2%
US Softlines Retail 19 February 2019American Eagle (AEO): We see neutral
event ahead
Heading into earnings, please find our view on:
The stock: We doubt AEO's 4Q18 report is a big catalyst. We do not expect
AEO's 4Q18 report to answer the market's pivotal questions around AEO.Because
of this, we doubt Street EPS estimates or the stock's multiple change after the
report.This limits the event's ability to catalyze the stock, in our view. The market
wants to know AEO can maintain +L-MSD comps through FY19 and leverage
SG&A in 2H19.Since AEO is only likely to give 1Q19 guidance, the market will not
likely get enough concrete data points to change its current view on these
questions.We rate AEO Buy. Our view is the company will continue to comp
strongly and leverage SG&A and the stock doesn't price this in at just 12x FY19
EPS.However, we doubt this becomes clear until later in the year.
The options market is pricing in an +/- 7.8% move over earnings vs. a +/-
6.7% historical avg. Since we don't see much changing fundamentally, we don't
expect a very volatile event.However, this is a low conviction view since low vol
Softline earnings reports are relatively rare occurrences.Directionally, we also
don't lean one way or the other.On one hand, sentiment seems relatively low,
judging by the stock's P/E, as well as its +2% gain since its 1/14 holiday update vs
+7% for the S&P 500. Plus, short interest remains 9% (although this is lower than
October's 12%).This would seem to be good for the set-up.On the other hand
though, we think AEO could guide 1Q19 conservatively.If so, it could weigh on
shares.Overall, we see a balanced upside/downside skew.
Figure 4: The options market is pricing in an +/- 7.8% move over earnings vs. a
+/- 6.7% historical average
Source:UBS Research
The bar: We think it's $0.42 in 4Q EPS and 23-25c in 1Q19 EPS guidance.
AEO updated its 4Q18 EPS guidance on January 14th.It expects $0.40-$0.42 of
4Q18 EPS.The company also noted it was comping +6% 4QTD.Because AEO
gave guidance so recently, we doubt the market's 4Q bar is much different from
guidance.We think this makes AEO's 1Q19 outlook more important to the event.
We think the bar is 23-25c.This would bracket the Street's current 24c view.We
also believe the 1Q19 SSS growth bar is +MSD.
Guidance: We expect AEO's 1Q19 EPS guidance will bracket consensus: AEO
is not likely to give a full fiscal 2019 outlook.However, it may give qualitative
+8%
-8%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
+5%
+10%
AEO Stock Moves on Earnings