文本描述
| 20181226
----2019
2018 2018 19-20 -- 2019Brent 70/11 WTI13:1Brent 20:1 2019H2-2021 2019110/ 201820122020 201910-20/ GDP 2015OPEC+OPEC+ 6171/20192019
zhongzhengsheng@cebmqlzuo@cebmqiuqichen@cebm
01
15+
2 3 4500+
2018... 4 2019 6 OPEC+ . 6. 8.......... 1020181226
1 .... 42 OECD. 43........... 54 .. 55 ......... 66 ......... 67 2018Q4... 68.... 69OPEC.......... 710 OPEC+ .......... 711 .... 812 OPEC...... 813.... 914 GDP....... 915 ... 1016 ... 1017 ...... 1018 ........ 1019...... 1120........... 1121Midland ..... 1122Midland ..... 1223........... 1224/ .......... 1220181226
2018 20181225Brent50.68 8440% 2019 20192020 --2019Brent70 OPEC+
2018
2018 1OPEC+ OECD2016OPEC 201852
12 OECD
2018 WTI1902 MSCI() LmeS-3 MSCI 1901 500 COMEX -30 -20 -10
20181030
BloombergWind
201820181225---- OPEC 2012 11
4 20181226
WTI managed money13:1Brent20:13WTIWTI1901 310036504100
3 4
BloombergWind
20184-5 4 52019-2020 6 backwardation contango2014contango1 16162 201510 2 2019H2-20212019H21
5 20181226
OPEC+
56
BloombergIEA
2019
782019 OPEC+
7 2018Q4 8
17 -18
BloombergIEA
OPEC+
127OPEC+OPEC120OPEC 80/OPEC40/ IEA OPEC 2019 20192018OPEC112/201810 62019201810OPEC
6 20181226