NATO’s Northeastern
Flank
Emerging Opportunities for Engagement
Christopher S. Chivvis, Raphael S. Cohen, Bryan Frederick,
Daniel S. Hamilton, F. Stephen Larrabee, Bonny Lin
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iii
Preface
In 2014, RAND was asked whether new opportunities for U.S. Air Force engagement were
emerging in Central Europe as a result of increased Russian activity in the region. This report
thus examines the impact of renewed tension between NATO and Russia on a group of key allies
and partners in central and northeastern Europe. It provides overviews of how the climate for
defense engagement, especially as it relates to the Air Force, is changing in each country. There
are in-depth assessments for nine key countries on NATO’s northeastern flank—the Czech
Republic, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Sweden—that
focus on issues relevant to developing robust engagement strategies for these countries. In
addition, based on an assessment of how these countries are reacting to the changing regional
defense environment and an assessment of emerging U.S. regional defense strategy
requirements, the report lays out a strategically grounded list of engagement priorities for the Air
Force. While both politics and resources will constrain partnership opportunities and the ability
of these countries to contribute to U.S. regional defense objectives, opportunities for
strengthening partnerships do exist in multiple areas.
The research reported here was commissioned by the Deputy Under Secretary of the Air
Force for International Affairs and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of
RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2015 project, “New Partnering Opportunities
in Central and Eastern Europe.” Human Subject Protections (HSP) protocols have been used in
this report in accordance with the appropriate statutes and U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
regulations governing HSP. The views of sources rendered anonymous by HSP are solely their
own and do not represent the official policy or position of DoD, the Air Force, or the U.S.
government.
RAND Project AIR FORCE
RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air
Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF
provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the
development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and
cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment;
Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. The
research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-06-C-0001.
Additional information about PAF is available on our website:
rand/paf/
iv
This report documents work originally shared with the U.S. Air Force on October 22, 2015.
The draft report, issued in January 2016, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and U.S. Air
Force subject-matter experts.
v
Contents
Preface ........ iii
Figures...... viii
Tables ......... xi
Summary ... xii
Acknowledgmentsxxi
Abbreviations ...... xxii
Chapter One. Introduction .. 1
European Partnerships in the New European Security Environment . 2
NATO’s Northeastern Flank .. 5
Comparative Perspective ........ 7
Subregional Defense Strategy .......... 14
Method ......... 15
Part I. The Visegrad Four .. 17
Chapter Two. Czech Republic: In Havel’s Shadow ......... 18
Key Background ....... 19
Relations with the United States and Europe ........... 23
Relations with Russia ........... 28
Defense Capabilities . 31
Response to Crimea and the Ukraine Crisis . 39
Outlook ......... 41
Chapter Three. Hungary: Balancing East and West ......... 44
Key Background ....... 44
Relations with the United States and Europe ........... 50
Relations with Russia ........... 52
Defense Capabilities . 56
Response to Crimea and the Ukraine Crisis . 63
Outlook ......... 64
Chapter Four. Poland: A Growing Regional Role67
Key Background ....... 68
Relations with the United States and Europe ........... 69
Relations with Russia ........... 74
Defense Capabilities . 76
Response to Crimea and the Ukraine Crisis . 89
Outlook ......... 91
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