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MBA论文_基于改进神经网络模型的火电建设工程项目风险评价研究DOC

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文本描述
摘要
近年来国民经济的快速发展,电力行业作为其先行者也保持稳步、快速的发
展态势。火电建设项目具有投资大、周期长、技术复杂和风险多的特点,是资本
密集型产业。但是我国火电建设工程项目的风险评价研究理论却比较落后,没有
形成系统的、完善的防范体系。针对我国火电建设工程项目的现状,逐步完善国
内火电建设工程项目风险管理体系,对于未来火电建设工程项目的健康发展具有
非常重要的意义

为实现“十二五”规划纲要提出的万元 GDP 能耗、万元 GDP 二氧化碳和主
要污染物排放持续下降,空气质量二级和好于二级天数的比例达到 80%的总体规
划,北京市进一步优化能源结构、改善空气质量,建设国际一流的和谐宜居之都,
2015 年北京市压减燃煤 400 万吨,煤炭消费总量削减到 1500 万吨以内,削减电
厂用煤 450 万吨,于 3 月份关停石热和国华燃煤电厂,在这样的背景下石景山热
电厂于 2015 年 3 月 19 日 4 台机组全部停运,之后北京能源投资有限责任公司为
了解决石景山热电的员工分流问题,在河北省涿州市新建了 2×350MW 燃煤机
组。对于北京能源投资有限责任公司而言,一方面关停了经营效益较好的石景山
热电厂,另一方面还要投资近 36 亿元建设 2×350MW 机组,因此应加强该火电
建设工程项目的风险管理,及时采取有效的风险防范措施,提高投资效益

本文首先介绍了火电项目的发展现状,并将风险管理的基本原理与火电建设
工程项目的实际特点相结合,详细阐述了火电建设工程项目的风险来源,突出了
火电建设工程项目风险评价的重要性和意义。本文以项目风险评价为理论依据,
结合火电建设工程项目的自身特点和实际情况,在对火电建设工程项目风险因素
进行深入剖析的基础上,建立了火电建设工程项目风险评价指标体系,并且运用
改进神经网络方法对火电建设工程项目风险进行预测,通过实例验证评价方法的
可行性和实用性

最后,以涿州电厂建设工程项目为例,结合该项目的实际情况构建了风险评
价指标体系,针对神经网络中最常用的 BP 算法所存在的收敛速度慢、容易得到
局部最优解的特点,提出了改进神经网络方法,优化了网络拓扑结构和初始权值,
并将其运用到涿州电厂建设工程项目风险评价中,取得了较好的收敛效果和误差
控制

关键词:工程风险管理;工程风险评价;神经网络;遗传算法华北电力大学硕士学位论文
II
Abstract
In recent years, the rapid development of the national economy, the power
industry as its pioneer also maintained a steady and rapid development trend. Thermal
power construction projects with investment, long cycle, technical complexity and
risk characteristics, is a capital-intensive industries. However, the theory of risk
evaluation of thermal power construction projects in China is relatively backward, and
there is no systematic and perfect prevention system. In view of the present situation
of the thermal power construction project in our country, it is of great significance for
the future thermal power construction project to develop the risk management system
of the domestic thermal power construction project step by step.
In order to achieve the 12th Five-Year Plan proposed yuan GDP energy
consumption, million GDP of carbon dioxide and major pollutants continued to
decline, the air quality of two and better than two days the proportion of 80% of the
overall planning, Beijing To further optimize the energy structure, improve air quality,
building a world-class harmony livable are, in accordance with the 2013-2017
Beijing to accelerate the construction of coal-burning and clean energy construction
program and Beijing 2013-2017 Clean Air Action Plan key tasks decomposition
2015 work measures requirements, 2015 Beijing pressure reduction coal 4 million
tons, coal consumption total reduced to 15000000 tons within, reduction power plant
coal 4.5 million tons, in March off stone heat and Guohua coal-fired power plant, in
this context, Shijingshan Thermal Power Plant in March 19, 2015 4 units all outage,
after the Beijing Energy Investment Co., Ltd. in order to solve the Shijingshan
Thermal Power staff diversion problem in Zhuozhou City, Hebei Province, built a
new 2 × 350MW coal - fired units. For Beijing Energy Investment Co., Ltd., on the
one hand shut down the operating efficiency of Shijingshan better thermal power
plant, on the other but also invest nearly 3.6 billion to build 2 × 350MW unit, it
should strengthen the thermal power construction project risk management , Full
control of the construction project risks and the extent of its impact, take timely and
effective risk prevention measures to improve investment efficiency and ensure the
smooth implementation of the project.
This paper introduces the development of thermal power project and its main risk
sources, and combines the basic principles of risk management with the actual华北电力大学硕士学位论文
III
characteristics of thermal power construction project, expatiates the risk sources of
thermal power construction project in detail, highlights the thermal power
construction project The Importance and Significance of Risk Assessment. In this
paper, based on the project risk evaluation and the characteristics of the thermal
power construction project, the thermal power construction project risk evaluation
index system is established based on the thorough analysis of the thermal power
construction project risk factors. Neural network method to forecast the risk of
thermal power construction project, and validate the feasibility and practicability of
the method through an example.
Finally, taking Zhuozhou thermoelectricity construction project as an example,
the risk evaluation index system is constructed according to the actual situation of the
project. In view of the slow convergence rate and the local optimum of the BP
algorithm used in the neural network, The improved neural network method is used to
optimize the network topology and initial weight, and it is applied to the risk
evaluation of Zhuozhou thermoelectricity construction project, and the convergence
effect and error control are achieved.
Keywords: engineering risk management; engineering risk assessment; neural
network; genetic algorithm华北电力大学硕士学位论文
目 录
摘要.....I
Abstract . II
第 1 章 绪论......1
1.1 选题背景及意义 . 1
1.1.1 选题背景....... 1
1.1.2 研究意义....... 1
1.2 国内外风险管理研究现状 ......... 3
1.2.1 国外研究现状........... 3
1.2.2 国内研究现状
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