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文本描述
A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Good neighbour gone bad:
policy risks for Mexico and Latin America
under Trump
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Good neighbour gone bad: policy risks for Mexico and Latin America under Trump
Trump and Mexico: building walls, burning bridges 3
Trade 3
Remittances 6
Immigration 8
Trump and Latin America: watching the region drift away 10
Overview 10
Diplomatic relations 11
Trade 12
Remittances 13
Immigration 14
Aid 16
CONCLUSION 18
The Trump risk heat map 19
Contents
Good neighbour gone bad: policy risks for Mexico and Latin America under Trump
T
he victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election of November 2016 raises questions
about his government’s policy towards Latin America. In this paper The Economist Intelligence
Unit assesses the regional implications of potential US policy measures under Mr Trump in
various key dimensions, including trade, remittances, immigration, aid and diplomatic relations.
Although Mexico will undoubtedly be the most affected by US trade protectionism, from a
multi-dimensional risk perspective various Central American and Caribbean countries are more
vulnerable overall. This is illustrated in a “heat map” at the end of the report (pg. 19).
l Mexico has received the brunt of Mr Trump’s rhetorical attacks and is at the greatest risk of having
its diplomatic relationship with the US sour. Trade dependency on the US is also highest, with exports
accounting for 26.9% of GDP in 2015. It is less vulnerable on remittances which amounted to just 2.1%
of GDP in 2015 and on immigration which has fallen drastically over the last decade. This suggests that
the proposed border wall may turn out to be the Trump administration’s biggest white elephant.
l Overall, Central America and the Caribbean are the two most vulnerable subregions in Latin America,
particularly on trade, remittances and immigration. Remittances from the US in 2015 accounted for
over 15% of GDP in El Salvador, Honduras and Haiti and trade dependency was also high, with exports
to the US totalling over 10% of GDP in El Salvador, Haiti and Nicaragua. The equivalent of around 1% of
the labour force in Guatemala and Honduras, and nearly 2% in El Salvador, emigrated illegally to the
US in 2015.
l Apart from Mexico, diplomatic risk is highest with the region’s socialist-leaning countries, mainly
Venezuela and Cuba, the latter which is under threat of having the rapprochement begun under the
Obama administration rolled back. Potential frictions could also emerge with drug-producing countries
as well as the Latin American countries that are temporary members of the UN Security Council. US
foreign aid is no longer substantial in Latin America with the exception of Haiti where it represents the
equivalent of one-tenth of the budget.
l The region will be susceptible to the global macroeconomic risks of Mr Trump’s policies, particularly
on import taxes as well as the effect of US dollar appreciation and higher interest rates on external
fnancing. Although none of these macroeconomic effects will be destabilising, it will ensure that
regional growth remains subdued into the medium term.
l Despite short-term risks, the long-term impact of Mr Trump’s policies may have a silver lining by
fostering economic diversifcation away from the US, promoting intra-regional ties and supporting a
push to strengthen domestic economies.
Executive summary
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