2017
U.S. Online Retail Forecast
FTI Consulting, Inc.2
Recently announced plans by Amazon, Inc.
(°Amazon±)and Wal-Mart/Google to have airborne
dirigibles serve as distribution centers for drones
that will deliver merchandise to households sound
very much like a contraption from a Jetsons
cartoon. Online retailing has become a mainstay in
consumersˉ lives and continues to extend its reach in
all sorts of ways, some unimaginable until now.
The conundrum for the retail sector is that regardless
of all this innovation, online commerce is essentially
a zero-sum game. One merchantˉs loss of an in-store
sale is likely to be a gain for the online channel. Online
shopping changes how and where people shop but
doesnˉt much alter consumer spending dollars in
the aggregate. Hence the relentless battle going on
between clicks and bricks for consumersˉ mindshare
and wallet share.
The prevailing storyline in business media suggests
that much of store-based retailing is damaged
or doomed. But we know there is no day ahead
when Americans will be doing all their shopping
online. Store-based retailing will continue to be the
dominant form of merchandise shopping for the
foreseeable future, even in a diminished capacity,
and so we must recognize that online sales growth
and market share will eventually moderate.
Exactly how and when will this happen This is
where the debate gets lively. We maintain that
constraints which govern the limits of natural growth
will determine these ceilings in various product
categories and that these limits or ceilings can be
known and quantied long before they are reached.
Online market share potential varies materially by
product category but, on the whole, our forecast
model projects an ultimate ceiling for online sales
approaching 25% of U.S. retail sales (excluding auto
and gas) a slightly more than double its current
market share a in little over a decade from now.
We expect U.S. online retail sales will top $600
billion by 2020 and surpass $1 trillion in 2027
compared to $445 billion in 2017 a representing
a compounded annual growth rate (°CAGR±) of
12% through 2020 and 9% over the next decade.
However, these sales and market share gains
will accrue at dierent rates for various product
categories and online sellers a so there will be
distinct winners and losers within the online realm
itself, which includes omnichannel.
As we mentioned in our recent report on Amazon,
that behemoth will get a growing slice of the online
pie. By 2027, just as U.S. online sales hit the $1 trillion
mark, we expect Amazonˉs total market share (rst-
party plus third-party, or 1P+3P) of these online sales
will be 53% versus 34% in 2016, representing nearly
12% of relevant U.S. retail sales versus 4% currently
[Exhibit 1].
You know the future has arrived when life
seems to resemble an episode of the Jetso
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