Perspective
Expert insights on a timely policy issueCORPORATION
T
he Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear
agreement between Iran and the P5+1 (the United States,
the United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Ger-
many) has proven successful so far. Te curtailment of the
nuclear program has made it much more difcult for Iran to wea-
ponize its program while reducing its international diplomatic and
economic isolation. However, some major challenges to the JCPOA
from within Iran may emerge in the future, especially in the wake
of tensions with the United States.
Te Iranian political system appears to have achieved a consen-
sus regarding the necessity of the JCPOA, but the Islamic Republic
is nevertheless deeply divided over a number of political, economic,
and social issues with major implications for the JCPOA. In par-
ticular, centrist and reformist forces aligned with President Hassan
Rouhani seek to normalize relations with Iranˉs regional neighbors
and the world powers and implement some domestic reforms, while
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the unelected estab-
lishment remain committed to revolutionary principles and a status
quo necessary to maintain their hold on power. Te JCPOA may
be a nonproliferation agreement, but it is intrinsically linked to the
internal struggle between two competing visions for Iran.
Rising tensions between Washington and Tehran on the
nuclear issue and competition between the two in the Middle East
may also exacerbate fssures within Iran, although not always in
beneft to U.S. interests.
Te Islamic Republic remains stable for now, but the legiti-
macy of the regime is still questioned by many Iranians, includ-
ing some of the elite. Te 2009 Green uprising in response to
Mahmoud Ahmadinejadˉs disputed reelection may appear to have
faded into history, but Iran remains a deeply divided country. Te
eventual passing of the aging supreme leader could reopen old
wounds and lead to domestic struggles afecting Tehranˉs adherence
to the JCPOA.
Iranian Domestic Challenges to the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
Alireza Nader, Ali G. Scotten, and James HooblerTis Perspective examines the nature of the factional divisions
that exist in Iran; how this factionalism may impact the nuclear
agreement; and the viability of the JCPOA if major events were to
occur, such as the death of the supreme leader or heightened U.S.-
Iran tensions.
Iranˉs Political Landscape
Iranˉs feuding factions, each with its own specifc policy prefer-
ences, are likely to play a signifcant role in the future viability of
the JCPOA. Te supreme leader is the most powerful man in Iran,
but he alone cannot dictate Iranˉs foreign policy; rather, Khamenei
must preside over a consensus among Iranˉs factions and decision-
making bodies. Tese factions are made up of informal networks
of individuals sharing a common worldview and are built o
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