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本文基于 STIRPAT 模型结合偏最小二乘回归的方法研究了 1997 年至 2014
年影响北京市交通碳排放的因素，主要调研了经济水平、人口因素、技术因素
以及交通相关指标的数据，结果显示：
（1）北京市经济水平持续发展，人口规模总量逐年增大，能源消费总量逐
年提升，而交通的碳排放占总量的比例也在逐年提高。由于技术创新水平的提
高，能源的利用率也在提升，能源强度逐年降低且第三产业的能源强度低于其
他两个产业，客运、货运周转量随着经济水平提高、人口迁移、能源需求增加
等而逐年提高，民用汽车拥有量也在逐年提升
（2）经济水平提高和人口规模的扩张是促进北京交通碳排放增加最重要两
个因素因素，民用汽车拥有量的增加将会导致乘公交出行的人数比重下降，从
而进一步加大了交通碳排放的量。客运和货运周转量的增大均促进交通碳排放
总量的增加，但客运周转量的作用更明显
（3）能源价格增加降低了北京市交通碳排放的总量，它的变动对交通碳排
放的影响程度仅次于人均 GDP 和人口规模，它的提高对于北京交通碳排放的增
加有显著的消极作用。价格的波动会在一定程度上影响对能源的需求，激发交
通领域新能源的改革，进而减少能源的消费总量
（4）能源强度在研究结果中显示它的降低反倒促进了交通碳排放的增加，
然而它的影响程度并不大。技术的进步会促进能源利用效率的提高，但是由于
反弹效应的存在，它的降低致使碳排放减少的量并无法抵消其他原因造成的碳
排放增加的量，尽管如此，能源强度的降低依旧在节能减排上发挥重要作用
根据研究结果，基于北京市的实际情况，文章从不同的角度提出了对北京
市交通碳排放的节能减排的合理化建议
关键词：北京市，交通碳排放，因素，STIRPAT 模型，PLS 回归III
ABSTRACT
With the development of the economy, the carbon emissions from the
transportation industry in China have been increasing. Reducing energy consumption
and carbon emission has become an important way to relieve the tension of energy
supply and build a low-carbon eco-city. Beijing ，as an international metropolis,
with the expansion of urban space and the increase in car ownership, transport, its
carbon emissions continued to grow. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore
the key factors influencing urban transportation carbon emissions and to clarify the
influence degree, and to put forward reasonable countermeasures and suggestions to
realize energy saving and emission reduction.
Based on STIRPAT model and partial least-squares regression, this paper studies
the factors that affect Beijing&39;s transport carbon emissions from 1997 to 2014, mainly
investigating economic, demographic, technological and traffic-related indicators. The
results show that:
(1) Beijing&39;s economic level continues to develop, the total population size
increased and the total energy consumption increased year by year, while the
proportion of traffic carbon emissions also increased. With the improvement of
technological innovation, the utilization rate of energy is also increasing, the energy
intensity is decreasing and the energy intensity of the tertiary industry is lower than
that of the other two industries. As the economic level increases, the population
migration and energy demand increase Such as increasing year by year, civilian car
ownership is also increasing year by year.
(2) Economic growth and expansion of population scale are the two most
important factors to promote the increase of carbon emissions in Beijing. The increase
in the number of civilian vehicles will lead to a decrease in the proportion of people
traveling by bus, thus further increasing the carbon emissions . Increased passenger
and freight traffic volumes all contribute to the increase in total carbon emissions, but
the role of passenger traffic is more pronounced.
(3) The increase of economic level and the expansion of population scale are the
two most important factors to promote the increase of traffic carbon emissions in
Beijing. The increase in the number of civilian vehicles will lead to a decrease in the
proportion of people traveling by bus, thus further increasing the amount of carbon
emissions. Increased passenger and freight traffic volumes all contribute to theIV
increase in total carbon emissions, but the role of passenger traffic is more
pronounced.
(4) Energy intensity in the research results show that its reduction has actually
contributed to the increase in traffic carbon emissions, but its impact is not significant.
Technological progress will promote energy efficiency, but because of the rebound
effect, it reduces the amount of carbon emission reductions can not offset other causes
of increased carbon emissions, however, the reduction of energy intensity is still in
the energy-saving Emission reduction play an important role.
At last, this paper puts forward some reasonable suggestions on energy saving
and emission reduction of Beijing &39;s transportation carbon emissions from different
perspectives based on the actual situation of Beijing.
Key words：Beijing, transport carbon emissions, factor, STIRPAT
model, PLS methodI
目 录
第 1 章 绪论..........1
1.1 研究背景及意义 ....1
1.1.1 研究背景.....1
1.1.2 研究意义.....3
1.2 研究思路和内容 ....3
1.2.1 研究思路.....3
1.2.2 研究内容.....4
1.3 研究方法 ....5
1.4 论文的创新点 ........6
1.5 本章小结 ....6
第 2 章 研究概述..7
2.1 碳排放研究现状 ....7
2.1.1 关于碳排放研究方法的研究.........7
2.1.2 关于不同区域和部门的碳排放研究.........9
2.2 关于交通碳排放的研究 ..10
2.2.1 城市交通能源消耗和排放的研究类型...10
2.2.2 关于运输特定模式和方法的研究...........12
2.2.3 关于交通碳排放影响因素的研究...........13
2.3 相关文献评述 ......15
2.4 本章小结 ..16
第 3 章 北京市交通碳排放及相关因素发展现状........17
3.1 能源消耗现状 ......17
3.1.1 能源消耗总量.......17
3.1.2 能源强度...18
3.2 交通影响因素现状 ..........20
3.2.1 经济水平...20
3.2.2 人口规模...21
3.2.3 客运货运周转量..
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