摘要III
Abstract..........IV
1 引言....1
1.1 研究背景及意义..........1
1.1.1 研究背景...........1
1.1.2 研究意义...........2
1.2 国内外研究现状..........2
1.2.1 国外研究现状...2
1.2.2 国内研究现状...4
1.3 研究内容与方法..........6
1.3.1 研究内容...........6
1.3.2 研究方法...........7
1.3.3 论文框架及技术路线...7
2 贵州工行智能网点建设项目简介....9
2.1 项目背景..........9
2.2 项目目标........10
2.3 项目工作内容及流程12
2.4 项目组织架构15
2.5 贵州工行智能网点建设项目风险特点........17
3 贵州工行智能网点建设项目的风险识别..19
3.1 项目风险识别的含义19
3.2 项目风险识别的依据19
3.3 项目的风险识别方法19
3.3.1 项目 SWOT 分析法.......19
3.3.2 头脑风暴法.....22
3.3.3 德尔菲法.........23
3.4 项目风险清单26II
4 贵州工行智能网点建设项目风险评估......27
4.1 贵州工行智能网点建设项目风险定性分析27
4.2 贵州工行智能网点建设项目风险定量分析30
4.2.1 层次分析法.....30
4.2.2 项目风险因素危害程度评估.36
5 贵州工行智能网点建设项目风险应对和配套防范措施..38
5.1 贵州工行智能网点建设项目风险应对.......38
5.1.1 风险应对策略的规划38
5.1.2 风险应对策略的实施38
5.2 贵州工行智能网点建设项目风险配套防范措施...44
5.2.1 明确风险管理部门和职责....44
5.2.2 完善风险管理制度与流程....44
5.2.3 加强风险管理知识培训........45
6 结论与展望..46
6.1 结论...46
6.2 展望...47
致 谢..48
主要参考文献..49
原 创 性 声 明..........51III
摘要
目前，国内外不少金融机构纷纷探索建设“智能网点”，拟综合运用各种新
型智能设备及持续优化业务流程，达到提升网点运营效能、改善客户体验的目标

由于智能网点建设有别于传统物理网点，是一个复杂的组织、建设、实施和管理
的过程，这期间大量不确定、模糊和随机的因素存在并不断变化。需要通过科学
有效的项目风险管理，促进智能网点建设项目的合理成本投入、合格质量保障及
高价值应用产出

本文以贵州工行智能网点建设项目为研究对象，运用项目风险管理的多种理
论方法和工具，对贵州工行智能网点建设项目进行了较系统深入的研究。首先概
述贵州工行智能网点建设背景，并具体以 D 网点作为例子，分析归纳智能网点建
设项目风险特点。其次，选取使用 SWOT 分析法、头脑风暴法和德尔菲法三种风
险识别方法，避免单一方法识别风险的片面性，整理出智能网点建设项目涉及战
略、政策、管理和技术四个方面的 15 个主要风险因素，形成最终的项目风险清
单。再次，采用定性分析与定量分析相结合的方式对智能网点建设项目风险发生
概率、危害程度、重要性进行评估，得出贵州工行智能网点建设项目的Ⅰ级风险
4 个、Ⅱ级风险 8 个、Ⅲ级风险 3 个。最后，针对贵州工行智能网点建设项目的
风险因素，逐一制定风险应对措施，并提供切实可行的项目风险管理建议，保证
项目风险管理达到预期的目标

关键词: 智能网点,风险管理,SWOT 分析,德尔菲法,层次分析法
分类号: C93IV
Abstract
Nowadays, many financing institutions domestically and overseas explore how to construct
“intelligent branch”, and they simulate the comprehensive application of a variety of new-type
intelligent devices and the continual optimization of business process, in order to achieve the
purpose of enhancing the operation efficiency of branches and improving customer experience. As
a result of that the construction of intelligent branch, being distinguished from the traditional
physical branch, is a complicated process of organization, building, implementation and
management, a great number of uncertain, indistinct and random factors exist and constantly
change during this period. Therefore, it requires a scientific and effective project risk management
to promote reasonable cost inputs, qualified quality assurance and high-value application and
outputs of intelligent branch construction projects.
This paper took intelligent branch construction project of ICBC Guizhou Branch as the object
of study, applying various theoretical methods and tools to conduct a systematical and deep
research on the project. First of all, it introduced the background of intelligent branch construction
of ICBC Guizhou Branch, and selected Branch D as the example for analyzing and concluding the
risk characteristics of intelligent branch construction. Secondly, three risk identification methods:
SWOT analysis, Brainstorming method and Delphi method were adopted to avoid one-sidedness,
which is usually caused by using a single method to identify risks. Based on that, it sorted out 15
main risk factors involving strategy, policy, management and technology four aspects for the
intelligent branch construction project, constituting the final project risks list. In addition, it
applied a combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to evaluate risk probability,
extent of injury and significance of the project, and concluded that there were 4 I-level risks, 8
II-level risks and 3 III-level risks in the intelligent branch construction project of ICBC Guizhou
Branch. At last, it aiming at the risk factors of the project specifically formulated risk counter
measures, and offered feasible recommendations on managing project risks to guarantee the
project risk management to reach the expected goals.
Keywords: Intelligent branch, Risk management, SWOT analysis, Delphi method, AHP
Classification number：C93贵州大学工商管理硕士学位论文1 引言
1.1 研究背景及意义
1.1.1 研究背景
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