摘要 III
Abstract V
m-M ^ 1
1.1研宄背景1.2研宄意义1.3研宄内容及方法1.3.1研宄内容1.3.2研宄方法1.3.3技术路线1.4文章创新点、不足1.4.1创新点1.4.2不足之处第二章C02排放水平与减排潜力的研究现状2.1 C02排放与经济增长的关系2.2二氧化碳排放测算方法2.3二氧化碳排放影响因素分析2.3.1研宄方法2.3.2影响因素2.4 C02排放与经济增长的退耦理论分析第三章中国各省区002排放水平现状描述分析3.1碳排放测算计算方法3.2各省区碳排放水平测算及其分析3.2.1中国碳排放水平现状描述3.2.2各省区碳排放水平的区域差异
21
第四章中国各省区C02排放水平成因分析
25
4.1 C02排放水平影响因素的理论分析及现状描述
25
4.1.1经济效应
25
4.1.2社会效应
27
I 4.1.3能源效应
28
4.1.4技术效应
29
4.2中国C02排放水平影响因素的回归分析
34
4.2.1变量指标选择
34
4.2.2数据来源
36
4.2.3模型设定
36
4.2.4实证分析
36
4.3结果分析
39
第五章中国各省区C02减排潜力测算及结果分析
41
5.1各省区C02减排潜力现状的描述性分析
42
5.1.1二氧化碳减排潜力测算
42
5.1.2现状描述分析
43
5.2 C02排放与经济增长的退耦分析
45
5.2.1基于退耦指数构建C02减排潜力计量方法
45
5.2.2退耦分析
46
5.3我国各省区二氧化碳减排对策分析
51
第六章结论和政策启示
53
6.1研宂结论
53
6.2政策建议
54
6.2.1把关能源利用强度,严格监控碳排放量,发展新型工业
54
6.2.2优化能源消费结构,提高能源利用率,发展低碳经济
54
6.2.3发展清洁能源,提高技术创新能力,推进低碳技术进步
54
6.2.4构建C02减排评价体系,合理有效制定减排政策
55
参考文献 56
m 63
Wi 66
作者简介 67
II 摘要
能源作为人类生产生活赖以生存的根本,支撑着经济的繁荣与发展,是一
个国家经济发展的主要动力。能源却是一把双刃剑,大量的能源消耗会给我们
带来威胁社会生产生活的不稳定因素,例如温室效应、生态恶化、海平面上升
等。学术界一直认为人类活动中消耗的能源等所排放的温室气体产生的温室效
应是全球变暖问题最主要原因,其中,C〇2的贡献最大。为此各国都在为构建
低碳社会共同努力致力于科学有效的减排措施。作为世界最大的发展中国家,
也是世界能源消费大国,我国正处于经济发展的重要阶段,逐步转变现有经济
结构必须重视环境问题,承担相应的减排责任。在这种大的国际环境下,研宄
中国碳排放水平及其影响因素、各省市的减排潜力对于中国积极响应大环境下
的减排方案,制定能源政策、碳减排政策均有重要的意义

文章从各省区C02排放入手,选择合理的测算(:02排放量的方法估算出各
省区C〇2排放总量,分析我国各省区二氧化碳排放情况。另外从经济效应、社
会效应、能源效应和技术效应四个方面八个影响因素进行统计观察及实证分析,
研究发现,代表经济和能源效应的指标变量对C〇2排放水平的影响是正向的;
社会效应对C〇2排放水平的影响显著性水平不高;技术效应则有抑制作用。同
时为了更好的掌握各省区在现有的经济发展水平和技术水平下二氧化碳减排空
间大小,文章结合退耦理论,构建起我国各省区co2减排潜力评价体系,评价
各省市减排政策、措施的制定及实施的有效性。发现我国各省区C〇2减排工作
的推进对减少co2排放量起到了积极作用,但减排政策的有效性还得不到保障

文章最后根据上述研宄结论,分析各省区经济发展与C〇2排放两者之间存在的
不协调性,针对性的提出各区域经济发展政策建议

文章创新点在于研宄C〇2排放影响因素时从经济效应、社会效应、能源效
应和技术效应四个方面进行研宄;将技术创新能力定义为单位科学研宄与实验
发展(R&D)经费的国内授权专利数量,引入交通水平影响因素,并选取面板
数据模型进行实证分析;另外,结合退耦理论建立起各省区co2减排潜力评价
III 体系,评价各省区C〇2减排政策措施的制定及实施的有效性和效率,揮宄二氧
化碳减排压力

关键词:co2排放,能源效率,能源消费强度,减排潜力,退耦指数
IV Abstract
Energy is the basis for the survival of human production and life, supporting the
economic prosperity and development. However, Energy has brought us problems,
such as environmental pollution,climate change and so on,which seriously threaten
the existence and development of hiiman society. In recent year, Machinery and
power industry has developed rapidly, that is related with the release of large
amounts of greenhouse gases from energy consumption. The academic community
has always believed that the greenhouse effect caused by the energy consumed by
human activities is the main cause of global wanning, in which CO2 contributes the
most. To this end, the world is committed to seeking more effective emission
reduction actions. As the largest developing country in the world, Chinese economy
is at an important stage of development, gradually changing the existing industrial
structure requires a process for capital-intensive. We must pay attention to the
environmental problems caused by energy consumption and bear the responsibility
for emissions reductions. In this international environment, studying Chinese carbon
emissions and its influencing factors, and analyzing the emissions reduction potential
of the various provinces and cities, which can promote China&39;s positive response to
the climate change, and be advantageous to the energy policy, greenhouse gas
emission reduction policy.
Firstly, the paper selects a reasonable CO2 emission method to estimate the total
amount of CO2 emissions in different provinces and regions, and describe the carbon
dioxide emissions of each province in china. Secondly, the paper studies the CO2
emissions factors from the economic effects, social effects, energy effects and
technical effects four aspects. And the paper carried out a statistical analysis and
empirical research. Research find that effect of variables of economic and energy on
carbon dioxide emissions level is positive; social on carbon dioxide emissions level
is general; the technicaJ is negatively correlated with the levels of carbon dioxide
emissions. At the same time, At the same time, in order to better grasp the size of
carbon dioxide emission reduction provinces in the current economic development
v level and technical level, paper is combined with the decoupling theory to establish
carbon dioxide emission reduction potential evaluation system, so that can evaluate
the effectiveness of the formulation and implementation of emission reduction
policies of provinces. The results show that the CO2 emission reduction work of 30
provinces has played a positive role,but the effectiveness of emission reduction
policy is still not guaranteed. Finally, based on the above research conclusions, this
paper analyzes the disharmony between the economic development and CO2
emissions of each province, and puts forward some suggestions for the regional
economic development.
The innovation of the article lays in the study of CO2 emission factors from four
aspects: economic effect, social effect, energy effect and technical effect. The
technological innovation capability is defined as the number of domestic authorized
patents for unit scientific research and experimental development (R&D). The article
regards traffic levels as one of the influencing factors to study CO2 emissions. And
the panel data model is selected for empirical analysis. In addition, the paper
establishes the evaluation system of CO2 emission reduction potential of each
province by combining the decoupling theory, so that can evalxiate the effectiveness
and efficiency of CO2 emission reduction policies and measures,and explores the
carbon dioxide emission reduction pressure.
Key words: CO2 Emissions,Energy Efficiency,Energy Consumption Intensity,
Emission Reduction Potential, Decoupling Index.
VI
第一章绪论
第一章绪论
1.1研究背景
能源作为人类生产生活赖以生存的基础,支撑着经济繁荣生息、蓬勃发展,
是国家经济发展的主要动力。能源的发展源远流长、生生不息,从古至今,每
一种能源的发现和利用,都把人类支配自然的能力提高一个台阶;能源科学技
术的每一次飞跃,都引起生产技术的重大突破和革新

迄今为止,全球范围内能源消费最多的国家大多为发达国家。据统计2015
年石油消费主要集中在北美、欧洲和亚太区域,分别占世界石油消费的24%、
20%和34%左右,总体石油消费量超过世界总量的3/4。其中,美国的石油消费
比例为19.7%。天然气主要消费地区位北美、欧洲及亚太地区,总消费量占全
球消费的77.8%,其中美国天然气消费占全球22.8%:而2015年煤炭消费量最
高国家为中国,多达1920.40Mtoe,占全球消费量的50.00%,而美国占10.3%,
位居第三。总体上,作为经济发达国家的美国,其能源消费总量总是较高。而
中国近几年来一次能源消费总量逐渐超过美国,跃居世界第一,尤其是煤炭消
费

能源能够推动经济的发展,而我们也将必然会遇到一些能源问题,例如能
源稀缺、环境污染等问题,这将会对人类社会的生存和发展造成严重威胁。目
前传统化石能源作为全球消耗的最主要能源,2015年全球能源消费中化石能源
占了 87.2%W,相对与2006年下降了 0.7%。短期来说传统化石能源是一种不可
再生能源,随着人类的开发使用,人类必将会面临化石能源稀缺甚至是干润等
问题。未来将会可能出现的能源问题使得世界各国不得不开始高度关注能源使
用效率的提髙和新能源、清洁能源的开发使用。2005年欧盟发起可持续能源运
动,政策支持生物乙醇和生物柴油的推广,科学利用生物废料;20世纪70时年
代以来美国进行了三次能源政策,不断推动着清洁能源、可再生能源的发展,
以减少化石能源的使用来抑制温室气体排放。日本则将重点放在
。。。以上简介无排版格式，详细内容请下载查看