摘要
在日益激烈的全球市场竞争环境下，作为有效的竞争手段，企业必须不断地推出
自己的新产品以满足市场竞争的需要。然而，企业在开发新产品的过程中，总会面临
各种各样的问题，如新产品性能不能满足市场的需求，开发成本超出预算，开发进度
无法按计划完成等等，以至于导致新产品开发的失败。为了改善这种状况，企业在新
产品开发过程中就必须严格控制新产品开发的风险

本文主要研究了 CJ 公司电动工具新产品风险管理现状，基于该公司新产品开发
的三个核心风险要素，新产品性能，开发成本，开发进度，利用定性与定量分析相结
合的方法，建立了电动工具新产品开发风险综合评价指标体系。由于电动工具新产品
开发的风险因素众多，各个因素之间层次关系复杂，量化计算困难，具有较强的模糊
不确定性特征，本文利用层次分析法和模糊多元决策法构建了层次模糊综合评价模型
对电动工具新产品开发风险实施评价。通过该评价模型，对 CJ 公司电动工具新产品
开发 M 项目 A 和 B 方案风险进行评价，并对风险因素提出相应的风险控制方法及防
范措施

关键词： 电动工具， 新产品开发，风险管理，层次分析法，模糊多元决策法ABSTRACT
For current manufacturing environment, there is a cruel global market competition. As
an effective competition strategy, manufacturing enterprise need to launch many new
products to meet the requirements of market competition. But all kinds of risks will be faced
when develop a new product, such as new product performance can’t meet market
requirement, new product development cost is out of budget requirement, new product
development schedule is out of control, and so on. All these risks possibly will lead to new
product development failure. To improve such situation, manufacturing enterprise must
manage new product development risks seriously when develop a new product.
This paper mainly studies CJ company power tool new product development risk
management present situation of the project and based on the core risk factors, i.e.
new product performance, new product development cost and new product development
schedule, by using the method of combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis,
constructed the Comprehensive Evaluation Index System of power tool new product
development risk management. There are many risk factors during power tool new product
development and the risk factors have complicated relations, are difficult to be quantified.
Moreover, the risk factors have much fuzzy uncertainty, complexity and hierarchy, so the
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model of power tool new product development is
established. Based on the model, studied the plan A and the plan B of the new power tool
development project M of CJ company, found out the key risk factors and provided relevant
measures to control the risks.
Key words：Power tool，New product development，Risk Management，AHP,
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation目 录
摘要...1
ABSTRACT...........2
目 录...3
1 绪论....1
1.1. 研究背景和意义.1
1.1.1 研究背景...........1
1.1.2 研究意义...........1
1.2. 文献综述.2
1.2.1 国外研究现状...2
1.2.2 国内研究现状....2
1.2.3 综合述评...........4
1.3. 研究思路.4
1.3.1 研究内容4
1.3.2 研究方法4
1.3.3 技术路线...........5
1.4. 主要创新点.........7
2 风险管理理论基础...8
2.1 风险概述...8
2.1.1 风险的定义.......8
2.1.2 风险的分类.......9
2.2 风险识别和评估理论.....10
2.2.1 风险识别理论.10
2.2.2 风险的分析.....10
2.3 风险的控制.........12
3 CJ 公司电动工具新产品开发风险管理问题分析13
3.1 CJ 公司概述........13
3.2 CJ 公司新产品概念和分类........13
3.3 CJ 公司新产品开发风险管理现状分析14
3.4 CJ 公司电动工具新产品开发风险因素的分析与识别.........14
3.4.1 风险因素分析与识别.14
3.4.2 风险评估指标的选取.17
4 CJ 公司电动工具新产品开发风险评估过程及方法.......234.1 风险评估模型的建立.....23
4.2 风险评价实施.....25
4.3 实例分析...........
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