关键词:房地产 泡沫 测度 中铁房地产集团III
Abstrat
Since 2007, the real estate market prices soar, the state also issued accordingly many
regulation policies, but the real estate market price or is in a state of high speed increases.
The growing bubble in the real estate market is becoming more and more obvious to society.
The risks of the bursting of the housing bubble in other parts of the country have been
instructive. Therefore, in order to get the first-tier cities in China, especially the real estate
bubble index megacities, this paper get the data from field property, two major cities of
Beijing tianjin room measurement and analysis of the real estate bubble, and puts forward
some Suggestions, for the government, enterprises in the development of real estate industry
to provide the reference basis. Due to the real estate market has its own characteristics, the
complexity of the real estate supply and demand and regulatory environment, the difference
of cities housing prices, some of the city&39;s data is missing for a long time, we are in the
process of determination of the real estate bubble, it is difficult to get on time the above data,
so some of the city&39;s real estate bubble detection more difficult. From the existing data, the
real estate bubble measure method has the following several kinds: using the index detection,
by calculating the real estate value calculation, and the use of empirical methods to calculate
the three. By calculating the real value of real estate, we are trying to use the macro model
Ramsey to analyze and calculate and test. Measure the bubble in China&39;s first-tier cities (in
tianjin, Beijing). By measure, there is a big bubble in the real estate market. To sum up, in
the face of the real estate market bubble to the risks of enterprise, this article from the human
resources, financial management, land use, financing, risk and so on each aspect for China
railway real estate group response to market bubble risk coping strategies are put forward.
Key words: real estate; Bubble; Measure; China rbilway real estate groupIV
目 录
摘要III
Abstrat...........III
1 绪 论..........1
1.1 选题背景....... 1
1.2 研究意义...... 1
1.3 文献综述...... 2
1.3.1 国外文献综述2
1.3.2 国内文献综述3
1.4 研究方法...... 4
1.5 研究内容...... 4
2 中国一线城市房地产泡沫现状及成因.....5
2.1 房地产市场泡沫的界定.......5
2.1.1 泡沫的界定....5
2.1.2 房地产泡沫的界定....5
2.1.3 房地产泡沫的类型....5
2.2 一线城市房地产市场泡沫现状.........6
2.3 一线城市房地产市场泡沫的成因...11
2.3.1 土地是地方政府的主要来源..........11
2.3.2 地方在土地的出售过程中,方式有问题..11
2.3.3 我国很多热钱找不到投资渠道......12
2.3.4 我国社会的二元化现象的改变......12
2.3.5 我国产业投资过程中存在着不合理的现象..........12
2.3.6 银行对房地产市场的贷款过多......12
2.3.7 国外游资的作用......13
2.3.8 法律法规存在很大的漏洞..13
3 中国一线城市房地产市场泡沫的测度...13
3.1 房地产市场泡沫的测定模型和方法.........13
3.1.1 房地产泡沫测定模型..........13
3.1.2 房地产泡沫测定方法..........14
3.2 测度模型的选择....14
3.2.1 理论价格法的介绍
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