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中铁集团应对一线城市房地产市场泡沫策略研究_MBA毕业论文DOC

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文本描述
摘要
2007 年以来,房地产市场价格一路飙升,虽然国家也相应出台了很多调控政策,
但是房地产市场价格还是处于高速上涨的状态。房地产市场泡沫的日益膨胀,给社会
带来的不良效应日益明显。根据其他国家地区房地产泡沫破灭带来的风险给我国有了
很大的启示。因此,为了得到我国一线城市,特别是特大城市的房地产泡沫指数,本
文从实地地产得到数据,对北京天津房两座一线城市的地产泡沫进行测定和分析,并
且提出了建议,为政府、企业在房地产产业的发展提供参考依据。由于房地产市场所
具自有的特征,房地产需求、供给和监管环境的复杂性,各个城市房产价格的差别,
一些城市的数据长期缺失,我们在测定房地产泡沫的过程中,很难得到有关时间上面
的数据,所以一些城市的房地产泡沫的检测比较困难。从已有的资料来看,房地产泡
沫测度的方法有下面几种:利用指标检测、通过计算房地产真实价值计算、以及利用
实证方法计算这三种。利用指标通过计算房地产真实价值计算、试图利用宏观模型
Ramsey 进行分析和计算、检测。对我国一线城市(以北京天津为例)房地产市场泡沫
进行测度。通过测度,发现一线城市房地产市场存在很大的泡沫。综上所述,面对房
地产市场泡沫给企业带来的风险,本文从人力资源、财务管理、土地利用、资金支持、
风险等各个方面为中铁房地产集团应对市场泡沫风险提出了应对策略

关键词:房地产 泡沫 测度 中铁房地产集团III
Abstrat
Since 2007, the real estate market prices soar, the state also issued accordingly many
regulation policies, but the real estate market price or is in a state of high speed increases.
The growing bubble in the real estate market is becoming more and more obvious to society.
The risks of the bursting of the housing bubble in other parts of the country have been
instructive. Therefore, in order to get the first-tier cities in China, especially the real estate
bubble index megacities, this paper get the data from field property, two major cities of
Beijing tianjin room measurement and analysis of the real estate bubble, and puts forward
some Suggestions, for the government, enterprises in the development of real estate industry
to provide the reference basis. Due to the real estate market has its own characteristics, the
complexity of the real estate supply and demand and regulatory environment, the difference
of cities housing prices, some of the city&39;s data is missing for a long time, we are in the
process of determination of the real estate bubble, it is difficult to get on time the above data,
so some of the city&39;s real estate bubble detection more difficult. From the existing data, the
real estate bubble measure method has the following several kinds: using the index detection,
by calculating the real estate value calculation, and the use of empirical methods to calculate
the three. By calculating the real value of real estate, we are trying to use the macro model
Ramsey to analyze and calculate and test. Measure the bubble in China&39;s first-tier cities (in
tianjin, Beijing). By measure, there is a big bubble in the real estate market. To sum up, in
the face of the real estate market bubble to the risks of enterprise, this article from the human
resources, financial management, land use, financing, risk and so on each aspect for China
railway real estate group response to market bubble risk coping strategies are put forward.
Key words: real estate; Bubble; Measure; China rbilway real estate groupIV
目 录
摘要III
Abstrat...........III
1 绪 论..........1
1.1 选题背景....... 1
1.2 研究意义...... 1
1.3 文献综述...... 2
1.3.1 国外文献综述2
1.3.2 国内文献综述3
1.4 研究方法...... 4
1.5 研究内容...... 4
2 中国一线城市房地产泡沫现状及成因.....5
2.1 房地产市场泡沫的界定.......5
2.1.1 泡沫的界定....5
2.1.2 房地产泡沫的界定....5
2.1.3 房地产泡沫的类型....5
2.2 一线城市房地产市场泡沫现状.........6
2.3 一线城市房地产市场泡沫的成因...11
2.3.1 土地是地方政府的主要来源..........11
2.3.2 地方在土地的出售过程中,方式有问题..11
2.3.3 我国很多热钱找不到投资渠道......12
2.3.4 我国社会的二元化现象的改变......12
2.3.5 我国产业投资过程中存在着不合理的现象..........12
2.3.6 银行对房地产市场的贷款过多......12
2.3.7 国外游资的作用......13
2.3.8 法律法规存在很大的漏洞..13
3 中国一线城市房地产市场泡沫的测度...13
3.1 房地产市场泡沫的测定模型和方法.........13
3.1.1 房地产泡沫测定模型..........13
3.1.2 房地产泡沫测定方法..........14
3.2 测度模型的选择....14
3.2.1 理论价格法的介绍
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