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MBA论文_城市公共基础设施投资效益优化模型与评价方法研究DOC

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文本描述
摘要
城市公共基础设施是城市经济运行的支撑体系和物质载体,提高它的利用效
益已成为城市可持续发展的关键。随着城市化进程加快,城市人口的不断增加,
城市用水资源的污染、内涝的增加、道路交通的拥堵、雾霾范围的扩大等等已成
为影响城市经济、社会、环境发展的重大阻力。为了更好对城市公共基础设施进
行投资建设,就有必要对城市公共基础设施科学合理的评价和加强合理的投资布
局研究,以减少重复建设、资金浪费等现象的发生。本文的主要研究内容概括如
下:
首先,本文对城市公共基础设施的相关概念和属性进行了详细的介绍,对国
内外城市公共基础设施投资决策、效益评价方法相关的文献进行了梳理,并对这
些文献进行了述评。然后,简单阐述了与城市公共基础设施相关的投资决策理论
以及效益评价方法理论。选择了代表城市公共基础设施经济、社会、环境效益的
各项指标,给出了城市公共基础设施在多属性群体决策模型、投资组合模型、数
据包络分析博弈交叉效率模型下的评价方法。为城市公共基础设施的实证研究提
供了方法支撑

其次,本文以城市公共基础六大系统为研究对象,构建了城市公共基础设施
系统的经济、社会、环境效益指标,根据多属性群体决策模型得到了城市公共基
础设施六大系统的评估权重,建立了公共基础设施的综合效益最优模型。结果表
明交通基础设施属于生产性基础设施,所带来的经济效益要明显高于其他城市公
共基础设施系统所带来的经济效益,在进行资金投资时,应重点考虑交通设施系
统,然后再考虑其他城市公共基础设施系统的投资情况

第三,本文从投资组合的角度出发,研究了城市公共基础设施的模糊投资组
合规划模型。对城市公共基础设施的经济、社会、效益权重进行了重新定义,同
时加入了三角模糊数对投资组合模型,构建了以北京、天津、上海、重庆的公共
基础设施建设为研究对象的模糊投资组合规划模型,并利用粒子群算法进行了求
解。研究结果表明北京的城市公共基础设施建设投资比例逐年增加,其次是上海、
天津和重庆,国家将城市公共基础设施建设的重点仍然放在的经济发达地区

第四,数据包络分析(DEA)常常被用来评价城市公共基础设施投资效益

在固定的资金投资情况下,为了争取自身利益的最大,城市之间存在一定的竞争
关系,故本文借鉴了博弈的思想,将博弈论引入数据包络分析(DEA)交叉效率
模型中,构建了数据包络分析博弈交叉效率模型的城市公共基础设施投资效率评
价模型。利用所建立的模型对中国 30 个省会城市进行了实证研究。研究结果表II
明:西部地区的博弈交叉效率值要高于东部地区和中部地区的博弈交叉效率值

然而,城市公共基础设施投资资金的分配权重主要集中在东部地区

最后,作为城市公共基础设施系统重要组成部分,城市高速公路承包商的评
价与选择显的尤为重要。在考虑政府决策的期望前提下,针对高速公路承包商的
选择与评价问题,提出一种基于损失厌恶理论的数据包络分析博弈交叉效率模型
的评价方法。为此,构建了一套较为全面的高速公路承包商指标评价体系,根据
前景理论中价值函数的计算方法得到了各个高速公路承包商的效用函数值,最后
根据效用函数值的大小进行排序和选择。将考虑损失厌恶心理与不考虑损失厌恶
心理所得到的结果进行了比较,结果表明损失厌恶心理对决策者的选择决策产生
了影响,突出了本文研究的创新性,验证了损失厌恶理论解决决策选择问题的可
行性,同时也为城市公共基础设施投资选择问题提供了理论依据

关键词:公共基础设施,群体多属性决策,投资组合,数据包络分析,损失厌
恶,博弈交叉效率,综合评价III
ABSTRACT
Urban public infrastructure is the support system and material carrier of urban
economic operation, and improving its utilization has become the key to the
sustainable development of the city. With the continuous development of urban
construction, the pollution of water resources, the increase of water logging, the
congestion of road traffic and the expansion of smog have become the major obstacles
to the development of city. In order to invest urban public infrastructure, it is
necessary to make a scientific and rational evaluation of urban public infrastructure
and strengthen the rational investment layout research to reduce the duplication of
construction, waste of funds and so on. The main contents of this dissertation are
summarized as follows:
Firstly, this dissertation introduces the relevant concepts and attributes of urban
public infrastructure, and makes a review of the relevant literatures on domestic and
foreign urban public infrastructure investment decision-making and benefit evaluation
methods. Then, it briefly expounds the theory of investment decision-making and the
theory of benefit evaluation method related to urban public infrastructures. The
economic, social and environmental benefits indexes were selected, and the
evaluation methods of urban public infrastructures under the multi-attribute group
decision-making model, portfolio model and data envelopment analysis game
cross-efficiency model which provides the method support for the empirical research
of urban public infrastructure were given.
Secondly, this dissertation takes six urban public infrastructure systems as the
research object, obtains the evaluation weights of urban public infrastructure system
according to the multi-attribute group decision model. The results show that the
transport infrastructure which brought by the economic benefits are significantly
higher than other urban public infrastructure system. When making investments, the
transport infrastructure system should be considered more important than others.
Thirdly, this dissertation studies the fuzzy portfolio model of urban public
infrastructure. Add the triangular fuzzy numbers into portfolio model. And then
constructe a fuzzy portfolio model which was solved by the particle swarm algorithm.
The results show that the proportion of urban public infrastructure investment in
Beijing has increased year by year, followed closely by Shanghai, Tianjin andIV
Chongqing.
Fourth, In order to strive for their own interests, there is a certain competition
relationship between the largest cities. This dissertation draws on the idea of game
theory, introduces game theory into DEA cross-efficiency model, and constructs an
evaluation model of urban public infrastructure investment efficiency. This
dissertation makes an empirical research on 30 provincial capitals of China. The
results show that the cross-efficiency of the western region is higher than that of the
eastern region and the central region. However, the allocation of urban public
infrastructure investment funds mainly concentrated in the eastern region.
Finally, as an import part of urban public infrastructure system, expressway
contractors&39; evaluation and selection are particularly important. Under the premise of
the expectations of government decision-making, this dissertation proposes an
evaluation method based on loss aversion theory. Therefore, a more comprehensive
evaluation index system for expressway contractors is constructed. According to the
calculation method of the value function in the prospect theory, the utility function
value of each expressway contractor is obtained. The results show that the loss
aversion psychology has an impact on decision-making, it verifies the feasibility of
the loss aversion theory to solve the decision-making problem, and also provides a
theoretical basis for the urban public infrastructure investment.
KEYWORDS: Public infrastructure, Group multiple-attribute decision-making,
Portfolio, Data envelopment analysis, Loss aversion, Game cross-efficiency,
Comprehensive assessmentV
目 录
摘要
......I
ABSTRACT...III
第章 绪论
......1
1.1 选题背景及意义.1
1.2 研究综述.7
1.2.1 城市公共基础设施投资决策研究综述......7
1.2.2 城市公共基础设施效益评价方法综述....10
1.2.3 文献综述述评........15
1.3 研究内容及方法...........16
1.3.1 研究内容
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