Asia Pacifc
Economic
Forecast
4th Quarter 2016
Global Economics Team
Ramani Moses
Deloitte Services LP
India
Tel: +1 615 718 5204
E-mail: rmoses@deloitte
Dr. Ira Kalish
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
USA
Tel: +1 213 688 4765
E-mail: ikalish@deloitte
Dr. Rumki Majumdar
Deloitte Research
Deloitte Services LP
India
Tel: +1 615 209 4090
E-mail: rmajumdar@deloitte
Lester Gunnion
Deloitte Research
Deloitte Services LP
India
Tel: +1 615 718 8559
E-mail: lgunnion@deloitte
Akrur Barua
Deloitte Research
Deloitte Services LP
India
Tel: +1 678 299 9766
E-mail: abarua@deloitte
Chinese Services Group Leaders
Global Chinese Services Group
Rosa Yang
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Certifed Public
Accountants LLP
China Tel: +86 21 6141 1578
E-mail: royang@deloitte
Mark Robinson
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
Canada Tel: +1 416 601 6065
E-mail: mrobinson@deloitte.ca
Japanese Services Group Leaders
Global Japanese Services Group
Hitoshi Matsumoto
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC
Japan Tel: +09 09 688 8396
E-mail: hitoshi.matsumoto@tohmatsu.co.jp
US Japanese Services Group
US Japanese Services Group
George Warnock
Deloitte LLP
USA Tel: +1 212 436 2733
E-mail: gwarnock@deloitte
Global Industry Leaders
Consumer Business
Tim Hanley
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
USA
Tel: +1 414 688 2052
E-mail: thanley@deloitte
Energy & Resources
Rajeev Chopra
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
UK
Tel: +44 77 7578 5350
E-mail: rchopra@deloitte.co.uk
Financial Services
Bob Contri
Deloitte LLP
USA
Tel: +1 917 327 0828
E-mail:bcontri@deloitte
Life Sciences & Health Care
Mitch Morris
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
USA
Tel: +1 310 966 0566
E-mail: mitchmorris@deloitte
Manufacturing
Tim Hanley
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
USA
Tel: +1.414.977.2520
E-mail: thanley@deloitte
CONTACT INFORMATION
Q4 2016Q4 2016
CONTENTS
03 Malaysia
Struggling to get out of the loop
07 The Philippines
But for some harsh words, it’s going well
13 Taiwan
GDP grows on a rebound in exports
17 Vietnam
Aiming high despite challenges
25 ASEAN economic community
Playing a key role in Asian economic integration
30 About the authors
31 Additional resources
Asia Pacifc Economic OutlookQ4 2016
Malaysia
Struggling to get out of the loop
By Dr. Rumki Majumdar
M
ALAYSIA’S economic growth is moderat-
ing. The outlook is muddled by political
and global factors, and strong economic
performance seems unlikely this year despite resil-
ient domestic demand. While the Bank Negara Ma-
laysia (BNM) announced an unexpected rate cut in
July to support consumer spending and investment,
it may decide not to ease monetary policy further for
the rest of the year to contain risks emerging from
highly leveraged households and capital outfows.
Macroeconomic
fundamentals under stress
In Q2 2016, GDP increased at the slowest pace since
the global fnancial crisis hit the economy in 2009.
Annual growth slipped to 4.0 percent in Q2, ex-
tending the trend of slowing growth to fve straight
quarters. Net exports and the agricultural sector
continued to be a drag on growth, although a sharp
run-down in inventories also contributed.
Domestic demand continued to remain resilient,
and grew 4.9 percent year over year. Private con-
sumption grew 6.4 percent in Q2 due to continued
income growth and a government stimulus program
for low-wage employees. The growth in consump-
tion was primarily driven by spending on food and
beverages, transportation, and communication.
Fixed investment growth saw a sharp jump in Q2,
from 0.1 percent in Q1 to 6.1 percent in Q2, the fast-
est increase in the past fve quarters. Growth was
primarily driven by a strong revival in machinery
and equipment investment. Both public and private
sectors registered strong investment growth, with
public spending contributing the most to growth in
Q2. That said, growth in investment has remained
highly vulnerable since late 2014.
Malaysia may not perform as robustly this year as in the past few
years. Its Q2 GDP growth was the slowest since the global fnancial
crisis hit the economy in 2009, and macroeconomic fundamentals
are under stress. In such a scenario, will the central bank step in
with measures to help the economy maintain growth More impor-
tantly, can such measures mitigate the efect of external factors
pushing down growth
Asia Pacifc Economic Outlook。。。以上简介无排版格式，详细内容请下载查看