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定向増发以其高收益吸引着越来越多的机构投资者参与其中,然而参与定向增发
也并非完全没有风险。据统计2016年定向增发市场解禁的收益率同比下降了几
乎一半,跌破定向增发发行价股票的数量和幅度也在变大。一方面,随着机构参
与数量的增多,激烈的竞价使得定向增发折价率越来越低。另一方面,大量定向
增发股票的解禁使得市场承压,而市场的波动也会反过来对定向增发收益产生很
大的影响。另外,上市公司还可能发生定向增发项目的收益不及预期,导致业绩
变脸,股价下跌,影响定向增发收益的情况
面对定向增发市场的急剧扩张以及参与定向增发风险的逐渐积聚,投资者需
要分析定向增发收益率的影响因素,借此来实现对定向增发标的的快速筛选,以
便更充分的完成参与定向增发前的准备工作。本文的研宄参考了国内外学者关于
定向增发的假说和结论,在此基础上进行理论分析和提出假设,并建立模型以验
证自己的假设。本文对投资收益率的研宂主要分为两个部分:第一部分是关于定
向增发折价率的影响因素分析,折价率越高,机构投资者参与增发的安全边际也
就越高。第二个部分是关于定向增发收益率的影响因素分析,在这个方面,前人
大都讨论的是机构参与一年锁定期的定向增发收益情况,而大股东参与的三年期
定向增发收益情况却很少提及。故本文着重讨论了仅机构参与定向增发和有大股
东参与定向增发这两种情况下定向增发收益率的影响因素
在折价率的模型中,我们发现实施增发前上市公司的资产负债率、大股东是
否参与认购定向增发、定价基准日和增发上市日的时间间隔、增发上市日前一年
的日均换手率和增发折价率有显著正向的关系,大股东的持股比例和增发折价率
有显著的负向关系
在收益率的模型中我们发现仅机构参与定向增发的情况下,定向增发折价率、
资产负债率对定向增发收益率有显著正向的影响。公司总市值和沪深300市净率
对定向增发收益率有显著负向的影响。有大股东参与定向增发的情况下,定向增
发的折价率和定向增发收益率之间有着U型的关系。大股东或关联方的认购比
例、三年期净资产收益率的复合年增长率对定向增发收益率有正向的影响。而发
行期首日前一年的日均换手率对定向增发收益率有显著负向的影响
关键词:定向增发定向增发折价率定向增发收益率
I Abstract
ABSTRACT
Private placement as an important channel for refinancing of listed companies has
achieved the rapid growth in the past few years. Some listed companies are inclined to
use private placement to solve the financing needs, achieve the overall listing of the
Group and expand the company’s strength since the implementation of private
placement threshold is relatively low. While the private placement has the high return
and attracts more and more institutional investors, it isn’t entirely without risk.
According to the statistics, the private placement market lifted the return fell by almost
half in 2016 and the number of the ‘breaking’ stock is getting larger. On the one hand,
with the increase in the number of institutional participation, the auction becomes so
intense that the fixed rate is getting lower. On the other hand a large number of private
placement of the lifting of the ban makes the market under the pressure and the market
volatility will in turn impact the rate. In addition, some other factors will affect the yield,
such as the rate of return on investment is less than expected what will result in
performance changes.
In the face of the rapid expansion of the fixed market and the gradual accumulation
of participating risks, we need to analyze the influencing factors of the fixed rate of
return, so as to realize the rapid screening of the fixed bid so that the institutional
investors can complete the participation. The research of this paper refers to the
domestic and foreign scholars on the placement of the hypothesis and results, on the
basis of theoretical analysis and assumptions put forward, and establish a model to
verify the assumptions. The influencing factors that affect the rate of return on
investment are divided into two parts. The first part is about the factors that affect the
discount rate. The first factor that needs to be considered as a mechanism for private
placement is the additional discount rate. The higher the discount rate, the higher the
margin of safety involved in the issuance. The second part is about the factors that affect
the rate of increase. In the previous studies, there was a lack of analysis of the impact
of the three-year fixed rate of return on major shareholders&39; participation. This paper
focuses on the mechanism of the effect of the variable on the fixed rate of increase in
the case of institutional participation in private placement and large shareholder
participation in private placement.
In the discount rate model, we found that the issuance of listed companies before
ii Abstract
the issuance of asset-liability ratio, the major shareholders are involved in subscribing
to private placement, pricing base date and additional listing date interval, additional
listing date And the issuance of discount rates have a significant positive relationship
between the major shareholders of the shareholding ratio and the additional discount
rate has a significant negative relationship.
In the model of yield, we find that there is a significant positive impact on the rate
of return on rewards and withdraws when the institution participates in private
placement. The company&39;s total market value and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 book
value of the rate of return to the issuance of a significant negative impact. When large
shareholder participate in the case of private placement, the private placement of the
discount rate and its fixed rate of return between the U-shaped relationship. The
proportion of the subscription rate of the major shareholders or related parties, the
compound annual growth rate of the three-year return on net assets has a positive impact
on the fixed rate of return. And the day before the first day of the issue of the average
daily turnover rate has a significant negative impact on the rate of return.
Keywords: Private placement, Discount rate on private placement, The rate of return
on private placement
in
目录
第一章绪论1.1研究背景1.2研宄意义1.3本文研宄的创新点和不足之处1.4研宄内容和框架第二章文献综述2.1国外文献综述2.2国内文献综述2.3文献小结第三章我国定向增发市场简介3.1定向增发政策3.2定向增发特点3.3定向增发流程3.4定向增发的类型3.4.1项目融资型定向增发3.4.2资产注入型定向增发3.4.3融资收购其他资产型定向增发3.4.4引入战略投资者型定向增发第四章一级半市场参与定向增发收益率影响因子实证分析4.1理论分析和假设提出4.2变量选择
24
4.3模型建立
25
4.4样本与数据来源
26
4.5变量的统计性描述
27
4.6变量相关性和共线性诊断
30
4.6.1定向増发折价率模型的变量相关性和共线性诊断
30
IV
4.6.2定向增发收益率模型的相关性和共线性诊断
30
4.7回归分析
32
4.7.1折价率模型回归结果
32
4.7.2定向增发收益率回归结果
34
4.8本章小结
39
第五章研宄结论和建议
41
5.1本文主要研究结论
41
5.2投资和政策建议
42
参考文献 45
雜 47
在读期间发表的学术论文与取得的其他研宄成果
49
V
第一章绪论
第一章绪论
1」研究背景
在我国,定向增发又叫非公开发行,即向特定投资者发行股票募集资金或购
买资产的行为。定向增发在我国股权分置改革之后才得到了迅猛的发展,2006年
证监会颁布了《上市公司证券发行管理办法》,对定向增发的发行细则做出了规
定。随后又出台了《中国证券监督管理委员会发行审核委员会办法》,对定向增
发的审核程序进行了补充。2007年9月17日又颁布了《上市公司非公开发行股
票实施细则》,对定向增发的具体实施细则进行了规定。自细则实施以来,上市
公司越来越多的开始通过定向增发为新项目的投产以及资产收购进行融资,以达
到整合资源、战略转型或整体上市的目的。尤其是2015年以来,随着多项政策
出台推动并购重组,扩大配套募资资金比例,定向增发作为上市公司再融资渠道
的地位进一步提升。据wind数据统计,从2011年以来,定向增发融资的规模就
己经超过IP0的规模,其中2016年A股市场定向增发的规模达到1_ 6万亿,配
股的规模为176亿,发行可转债的规模为805亿,IPO的规模则不超过2000亿
由此可见定向增发己经发展成为上市公司再融资最重要的方式。另外定向增发规
模的增长也使得大批专业的机构投资者进入A股市场,逐渐让我国的资本市场实
现由散户市场到机构市场,由投机市场到投资市场的转变
图卜1是2006至2016年这十年以来上市公司实施定向增发的数量和融资
规模,我们可以看到定向增发的上市公司数目和融资规模呈现上升态势,2015年
定向增发实际募资总额高达13723. 10亿元,几乎是2014年募资规模的一倍,而
2016年虽然实施定向增发的数目比2015年有所减少,但是实际募资总额却创新
高,同比
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