Interim Economic
Assessment
Will risks derail the modest recovery
Financial vulnerabilities and policy risks
7 March 2107
7 March 2017
Will risks derail the modest recovery
Financial vulnerabilities and policy risks
Global GDP growth is projected to pick up modestly to around 3 per cent in 2018, from just under
3% in 2016, boosted by fiscal initiatives in the major economies. The forecast is broadly unchanged
since November 2016. Confidence has improved, but consumption, investment, trade and
productivity are far from strong, with growth slow by past norms and higher inequality.
Disconnect between financial markets and fundamentals, potential market volatility, financial
vulnerabilities and policy uncertainties could, however, derail the modest recovery. The positive
assessment reflected in market valuations appears disconnected from real economy prospects. The
interest-rate cycle turned in mid-2016 and rising divergence in interest rates between major
economies heightens risks of exchange rate volatility. Vulnerabilities remain in some advanced
economies from rapid house price increases. Risks to emerging market economies are high, including
from higher corporate debt, rising non-performing loans and vulnerability to external shocks.
OECD Interim Economic Outlook real GDP growth projections
Year-on-year, %
Note: Difference in percentage points based on rounded figures.
1. Fiscal years starting in April.
2016
Interim EO
projections
Difference
from
November EO
Interim EO
projections
Difference
from
November EO
World3.03.30.03.60.0
United States1.62.40.12.8-0.2
Euro area1.71.60.01.6-0.1
Germany 1.81.80.11.70.0
France1.11.40.11.4-0.2
Italy1.01.00.11.00.0
Japan1.01.20.20.80.0
Canada1.42.40.32.2-0.1
United Kingdom1.81.60.41.00.0
China6.76.50.16.30.2
India17.07.3-0.37.70.0
Brazil-3.50.00.01.50.3
G203.13.5-0.13.80.0
Rest of the World2.32.7-0.13.20.0
20172018
Interim
Economic Outlook
OECD Interim Economic Outlook, March 2017Policy needs to manage risks, strengthen growth and ensure it is more inclusive. Countries should use
increased fiscal space to implement effective fiscal initiatives that boost demand and make
government taxes and spending more supportive of long-term growth and equity. A durable exit
from the low-growth trap also requires greater political commitment to implement structural reform
packages to boost inclusive growth. These should combine policies to develop skills, remove barriers
to competition and trade, and improve labour market policies in a way that raises overall incomes
and shares the gains widely.
A stronger growth environment would enhance resilience. Countries should have robust early
warning systems and supervision, use macroprudential instruments appropriately and promote
effective approaches to managing and resolving non-performing loans. It is important to maintain
open and transparent global markets for capital, goods and services.
Global growth is set to pick-up modestly, but remains too slow
Global GDP growth is projected to increase, rising from just under 3% in 2016 – the slowest pace
since 2009 – to 3.3% in 2017 and around 3 percent in 2018. While the modest pick-up is welcome,
it would still leave global GDP growth below the historical average of around 4% in the two decades
prior to the crisis.
The global GDP projection is broadly unchanged since the OECD
Economic Outlook
of November
2016. There have been some positive signs of accelerating activity and rising consumer and business
confidence in recent months in advanced economies and a number of emerging market economies,
including improved momentum around the turn of the year. However, interest rates and oil prices
have risen which will offset this somewhat, although higher commodity prices will benefit some
emerging market economies. Overall, the recent improvement in activity is in line with the modest
pick-up in global growth projected in November.
Note: Estimated fiscal initiatives contribution based on fiscal stimulus in China and the euro area for 2016-18 and in the
United States for 2017-18. Fiscal years starting in April for India.
Source: OECD March 2017 Interim Economic Outlook; OECD November 2016 Economic Outlook database; and OECD
calculations.
OECD Interim Economic Outlook, March 2017This comes against the background of a five-year period where the global economy has been in a
low-growth trap. Growth has been disappointingly low and persistent growth shortfalls have
weighed on future output expectations, thereby holding back current spending and potential output
growth. This has given rise to weak global trade and investment. At the same time, productivity gaps
between firms have widened as frontier firms have continued to make gains but laggard firms have
under-performed, contributing to a widening gap in real incomes and rising inequality. These trends
have led to low income growth for many households, particularly at the bottom of the distribution,
and have in turn held back aggregate consumption growth.
The modest pick-up in global growth in 2017-18 reflects the effect of ongoing and projected fiscal
initiatives, notably in China and the United States, together with an easier stance in the euro area
and initiatives in other economies such as Canada. These are expected to catalyse private economic
activity and push up global demand. Exiting the low-growth trap depends on the joint impact of
macroeconomic, structural and trade policy choices, as well as on concerted and effective
implementation of existing initiatives.
While global trade growth was exceptionally weak in 2016 at around 2%, recent data suggest some
improvement, particularly in Asia. However, trade growth is likely to remain below pre-crisis growth
rates, in part reflecting a slowdown or reversal of the expansion of global value chains. Indeed,
equity prices for large internationally-exposed firms have under-performed relative to smaller,
domestically-focused firms in many countries.
Headline inflation is rising in most countries as the result of higher energy prices, following the OPEC
agreement in November to cut oil production. However, underlying inflation in advanced economies
is still subdued and will pick up only slowly as the expansion gains traction, including to support
more robust wage growth across the income distribution. Inflation is easing in a number of emerging
market economies as the effect of past exchange rate depreciations fades and the effect of
monetary policy actions works through, but commodity importers are exposed to rising commodity
prices.
Domestic demand in the United States is set to strengthen over the next two years and expand at a
solid pace, helped by gains in household wealth and a gradual upturn in energy production.
Employment is rising steadily, although the pace is expected to ease somewhat, and wages should
continue to pick up as the labour market tightens. GDP growth is projected to pick up to 2.4% in
2017 and 2.8% in 2018, supported by an anticipated fiscal expansion, especially in 2018, despite
higher long-term interest rates and continued headwinds from the stronger US dollar. Policy choices,
including on the composition of fiscal spending, taxation, regulation and trade, are likely to have a
significant impact on growth outcomes.
In the euro area, GDP growth is projected to continue at the current moderate pace, supported by
accommodative monetary policy and a modest fiscal easing over the coming years. There is fiscal
space for more ambitious and effective fiscal initiatives in Europe. There are encouraging signs that
business investment may be strengthening, but high non-performing loans and labour market slack
in some euro area countries continue to hold back growth prospects. Growth is set to remain solid in
Germany, but will continue at a slower pace in France and Italy. Although euro area-wide
unemployment is falling steadily, the rate remains above 9%. Not only does unemployment overall
remain high in some countries, youth unemployment is a particular drag on current demand and
future potential growth. Headline inflation has been pushed up by higher energy prices, but the
recovery is not yet sufficiently advanced to durably raise core inflation.
。。。以上简介无排版格式，详细内容请下载查看