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因为其综合性、延展性和广泛性,被视为衡量投资决策精准度的重要
指标
市场有效假说理论为市场机制提供了一个前提,即在贸易绝对自
由,信息充分披露与透明,法律法规健全,政府对信息进行充分监管
的前提下,所有有价值的信息已经在市场波动中得以体现,即现在的
市场波动与投资环境己经充分并真实的反映了所有的数值与价值。毫
无疑问,这是一个饱受争论的假设,因为市场永远不可能拥有绝对的
贸易自由和完全的信息透明,法律也不可能全面保护投资人权益,政
府更不可能对所有商业信息进行监管。有效市场假说是一种理想状态,
然而其所回避的问题,正是所有投资人应该思考的方向。因此,法律 保护、信息监管、贸易自由和信息披露是所有投资项目都必须评估的
指标
在世界银行的指标库中,对不同国家法律保护、信息监管、贸易
自由和信息披露领域都匹配相应的指标进行评估。经过系统的筛选和
分析,征信信息深度指数、信息披露指数、法律权利力度指数和商业
贸易/GDP可以作为理想的指标代表,对投资环境进行评估和讨论
而征信信息深度指数、信息披露指数、法律权利力度指数和商业贸易
/GDP对营商便利指数的影响将作为本研宄重点关注的问题进行进一
步的分析
中国于2014年成立亚洲基础建设投资银行,在短短两年之间,
己经进行多项基础建设投资,引发世界瞩目。相对于世界银行的扶贫
宗旨,对于一个区域性的政府间的商业银行性质的投资银行,亚投行
有对利润的基本要求。同时,基础设施建设投资存在建设周期长、资
金回报期长的本质,因此,亚投行的投资决策比世界银行等前辈要更
加慎重。以往学者的研宄往往综合考虑财务风险,投资回报以及市场
预测。学者们在投资决策时主要考察的两个维度是风险与回报,而营
商风险与营商便利程度比较少有人涉猎,社会风险等其他维度根据研
究范围的不同有所取舍
本研究以有效市场假说等投资决策理论作为理论依据,采用直接
与间接获取数据的方法,结合理论分析,构建回归分析理论模型。本
文将建立一个新的研宄思路,即重点针对营商便利指数进行分析。通
过探讨影响投资环境和市场有效性的相关指标,即征信信息深度指数、 信息披露指数、法律权利力度指数和商业贸易/GDP对营商便利指数
的影响程度,得出以下结论:1)降低营商便利指数可以提高投资吸
引力;2)征信信息深度指数对营商便利指数具有显著的负相关关系;
3)信息披露指数对营商便利指数具有显著的负相关关系;4)法律权
利力度指数对营商便利指数具有显著的负相关关系;5)商业贸易/GDP
对营商便利指数无明显的相关关系
根据以上结论,可以提出两方面建议:首先,被投资国可以更好
的了解本国的投资环境,从而根据相关因子的改善来调整营商便利指
数,达到提高投资吸引力的目的。其次,通过更广泛的了解和分析营
商便利指数及其相关因子,使亚投行可以进行更精准的投资决策
关键词:亚洲基础设施投资银行世界银行投资决策回归分析
营商便利指数
费 HOW INDEXES OF A&P COUNTRIES FROM WORLD
BANK INFLUENCE THE INVESTMENT DECISION OF
ASIAN INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT BANK(AIIB)
ABSTRACT
Each year, World Bank collects and evaluates round 300 indicators
for approximately 200 countries, encompassing areas such as health,
infrastructure, gender, the financial sector, the private sector, etc. The
private sector is the most widely cited, since it is overlooked easily but
has wide influence of investment decisions, and the Ease of Doing
Business Index is one of the representative indicators of the private sector.
Ease of Doing Business Index is a ranking of business friendliness which
was first proposed by the World Bank and has been comprehensively
evaluated by a number of indicators. Because of its comprehensive,
scalability and extensiveness, Ease of Doing Business Index is considered
as an important indicator of investment decisions.
Market Effectiveness Hypothesis theory provides a premise for the
market mechanism, which is in a free and non-constraint trade
environment, the legal sound, business information under the adequate supervision and fully disclosed and transparent. Tlierefore, all valuable
information has been reflected in the market which mean the current
market and investment environment has been fully and truly reflect by
data and their value. Undoubtedly,this is a questionable assumption,
because the market never has full freedom of trade, information is
incompletely transparent, the law cannot fully protect investors and the
Government is impossible to monitor all business information. The
Efficient Market Hypothesis is ￡in ideal state, but the problem it evades is
worth all the investors considering. Therefore, legal protection,
information regulation, trading freedom and information disclosure are
indicators that all investors should be focused on when they invest.
In the indicator pool of World Bank, there are corresponding
representative indicators for legal protection, information regulation,
trading freedom and information disclosure in different countries.
Through systematic screening and analysis, Business extent of disclosure
index, Depth of credit information index, Strength of legal rights index
and Merchandise trade (% of GDP) can be regarded as the ideal
representatives to evaluate and discuss the investment environment. The
impact of Business extent of disclosure index, Depth of credit
information index, Strength of legal rights index and Merchandise trade (%
of GDP) on Ease of Doing Business Index will be analyzed further. China set up Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in 2014, in just
two years, which already had invested a number of infrastructure projects,
triggering the attention of the whole world. Compared with World Bank&39;s
poverty alleviation aim, as a regional commercial investment bank, AIIB
has the requirements of profit. Because infrastructure investment has the
long construction period and return turnover, AIIB5 s investment
decision-making should be more cautious than World Bank and other
predecessors. In the past, scholarly research often considered financial
risk, return on investment and market forecast. Scholars in the investment
decision-making usually focus on two main dimensions which are risk
and return, less of them pay attention to business risk and business
convenience, and whether mention social risk and other dimensions or
not depends on the scope of the study.Based on the Market Effectiveness Hypothesis theory, this paper
uses direct and indirect data analysis and theoretical analysis to construct
the regression analysis model. This paper will establish a new research
ideas which focus on Ease of Doing Business Index. A wider
understanding and analysis of the impact of the investment environment
and market efficiency indicators, namely, Business extent of disclosure
index, Depth of credit information index, Strength of legal rights
indexand Merchandise trade (% of GDP) on Ease of Doing Business
Index will be pointed out. And the following conclusions can be drawn : 1) The reducing of Ease of Doing Business Index will enhance the
investment attractiveness; (2) Depth of credit information index has a
significant negative correlation with Ease of Doing Business Index; (3)
Business extent of disclosure index has a significant negative correlation
with Ease of Doing Business Index; (4) Strengtii of legal rights index has
a significant negative correlation with Ease of Doing Business Index; (5)
There was no significant correlation between commercial trade / GDP
and Ease of Doing Business Index.
Based on the above conclusions, two proposals can be made: Firstly,
according to Ease of Doing Business Index and relevant factors,
developing Asian countries gain a better understanding of their
investment environment. It is also a wise way to improve their investment
attractiveness by adjusting factors above. Secondly, AIIB can make more
accurate investment decisions through a more extensive understanding
and analysis of Ease of Doing Business Index with related factors.
KEY WORD: Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank World
Bank Investment Strategy Analysis of Regression Ease of Doing
Business Index 目录
m-n 雜 1
l.i研宄背景1
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