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2017年投资银行报告_汇丰银行2017年7月中国财新制造业采购经理人指数

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文本描述
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
(July 2017)
Better than consensus
July's Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.1 from 50.4 in June, better than
market expectations of no change, and in contrast to a marginal slowdown in the
NBS PMI.The components show that the manufacturing sector recovery has
shifted up a gear with the expansions in activity becoming more broad-based.The
only fly in the ointment being the deteriorating employment market, with the rate of
job shedding in sector hitting a ten month high.It is also worth noting that despite
the divergence between the official NBS and Caixin PMI in the month, the
fundamental message they deliver is broadly similar.In all, we believe that
economic activity continued to be supported by strong infrastructure investment
and improving exports.We therefore reiterate our view of a gradual but broader
recovery in the coming quarters, led by the private sector.
Facts
months.
Table 1: Summary of Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Source: Caixin, Markit, HSBC Research
Economics - Data Reactions
01 August 2017
Kelvin
Lam
Greater China Economist
The Hongkong and Shanghai
Banking Corporation Limited
+852 2996 6975
kelvin.h.p.lam@hsbc.hk
View HSBC Global Research at:
research.hsbc
Issuer of report
The Hongkong and Shanghai
Banking Corporation Limited
Disclosures &Disclaimer
This report must be read with the
disclosures and the analyst
certifications in the Disclosure
appendix, and with the Disclaimer,
which forms part of it
Implications
At 51.1, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI data came in strong than last month and the market had
expected.In terms of drivers, a healthy level of domestic and external demand have driven output higher
this month.The improvement witnessed in manufacturing industries has been more broad-based in July,
with 10 of the 11 sub-indices indicating a pick-up in demand, suggesting that the private sector led
recovery has shifted up a gear.The only fly in the ointment being the fact that employment market has
deteriorated slightly, with the rate of job shedding in sector hitting a ten month high.We think this owes
in part to China's effort in moving up the value chain in manufacturing, shifting away from labour
intensive to high tech industries, and in part to the SOE reform which might have played a role here too.
Analogous to the official PMI, the Caixin gauge also saw rising price pressures in the manufacturing
sector.There was a jump in input prices for producers in July, while factory gate prices also rose but to a
lesser extent.
The fact that producers can now pass on raw material price increases down the supply chain rather than
squeezing their own profits, suggests that demand from downstream agents has improved, customers are
willing to pay more.
Despite its divergence with the NBS manufacturing PMI which had indicated a temporary slowdown in
growth due to weather, the on-going picture of fundamentals they portrait is broadly similar in July.We
mentioned before that the Caixin gauge is on average more sensitive to detect a turning point in activity
than the NBS measure, the better Caixin dynamics this time around may serve as a harbinger of a more
solid recovery in the manufacturing sector.
Today's data shows that manufacturing activity has shifted up a gear. Looking ahead, we believe that
economic activity continued to be supported by strong infrastructure investment and improving exports.
We therefore reiterate our view of a gradual but broader recovery in the coming quarters, led by the
private sector.
Economics - Data Reactions
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (July 2017)
01 August 2017Figure 1: Official NBS vs Caixin Manufacturing PMIs
Source: NBS, Caixin, Markit, CEIC, HSBC Research
Figure 2: Caixin PMI: Input and Output Prices
Source: Caixin, Markit, HSBC Research
Economics - Data Reactions
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (July 2017)
01 August 2017Disclosure appendix
Analyst certification
The following analyst(s), who is(are) primarily responsible for this document, certifies(y) that the opinion(s), views or
forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be
directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Kelvin Lam
This document has been prepared and is being distributed by the Research Department of HSBC and is intended solely for the
clients of HSBC and is not for publication to other persons, whether through the press or by other means.
This document does not provide individually tailored investment advice and should not be construed as an offer or the
solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained within
this document is believed to be reliable but we do not guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein
are subject to change without notice. HSBC may hold a position in, buy or sell on a principal basis or act as a market maker in
any financial instrument discussed herein.
HSBC and its affiliates will from time to time sell to and buy from customers the securities/instruments (including derivatives)
of companies covered in HSBC Research on a principal or agency basis.
Analyst(s) are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking revenues.
HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its
Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research
operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Chinese Wall procedures
are in place between the Investment Banking and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive
information is handled in an appropriate manner.
1This report is dated as at 01 August 2017.
2All market data included in this report are dated as at close 01 August 2017, unless a different date and/or a specific time
of day is indicated in the report.
3HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its
Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of
Research operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business.
Information Barrier procedures are in place between the Investment Banking, Principal Trading, and Research businesses
to ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner.
4You are not permitted to use, for reference, any data in this document for the purpose of (i) determining the interest
payable, or other sums due, under loan agreements or under other financial contracts or instruments, (ii) determining the
price at which a financial instrument may be bought or sold or traded or redeemed, or the value of a financial instrument,
and/or (iii) measuring the performance of a financial instrument.
Economics - Data Reactions
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (July 2017)
01 August 2017。。。以上简介无排版格式,详细内容请下载查看