19 January 2017
HIGHLIGHTS
release of robust preliminary 4Q16 numbers. Colder weather in
northern Europe provided impetus as did rapid industrially-driven Asian
growth. Global oil demand growth for 2016 is now expected to be
1.5 mb/d, slowing to 1.3 mb/d in 2017 as product prices potentially rise.
97.6 mb/d on lower OPEC and non-OPEC output. For 2016, world supply
was up 0.3 mb/d from the previous year as record OPEC output more
than offset a 0.9 mb/d decline in non-OPEC.
record rates to 33.09 mb/d in December after lower Saudi output and
disruptions in Nigeria curbed supply. Early indications suggest a deeper
OPEC reduction may be under way for January, as Saudi Arabia and its
neighbours enforce supply cuts.
prices in the wake of an anticipated coordinated supply cut stimulate
increased investment in the US. Recovering LTO production underpins a
320 kb/d gain in total US output this year.
marking a fourth consecutive monthly decline. Taking into account
preliminary data for December, stocks are 82 mb below Julyˉs historical
peak, even if for now they remain above the symbolic 3 000 mb level.
thereafter. Dubai, after weakening initially, gained versus other
benchmarks due to lower expected OPEC output, opening the arbitrage
to Asia for Brent and WTI-linked crudes. Fuel oil was a strong performer
due to supply shortages.
160 kb/d - were partly responsible for a 260 kb/d downward revision
for 1Q17. Our analysis of refined product stocks movements shows a
4Q16 build in the OECD, with the overhang in non-OECD implied refined
product inventories persisting.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIGHLIGHTS ........ 1
A SIX-MONTH PROBATION3
DEMAND ... 4
Summary4
Globa
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