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汇丰银行_水泥_DemandgainsmomentuminSeptember

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汇丰银行 水泥
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Disclosures & Disclaimer
This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in
the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.
Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai
Banking Corporation Limited
View HSBC Global Research at:
https://research.hsbc
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expectations. Recovery gains momentum
margins make Indonesia our favourite market in ASEAN
cement stock where forthcoming recovery is not priced in
Domestic cement demand growth grew c12% y-o-y in September: Including the
4% y-o-y growth in exports, total cement sales grew by 11.7% y-o-y, indicating
demand growth has gained momentum since the start of 2Q17. Volumes have grown
9% y-o-y (11% y-o-y including exports) during the past six months. However, Semen
Indonesia, our only Buy-rated stock in the sector, reported volume growth of 6%
y-o-y, which underperformed the market last month. Indocementˉs volumes, on the
other hand, grew 12% y-o-y as Western Java staged a strong recovery. So far INTPˉs
exposure to this market and greater competition has impeded its volume growth.
We remain optimistic about cement demand growth in Indonesia: We identified
Indonesia as the cement market with the brightest prospects in ASEAN in our recent
sector report (see -all fall down-except one published on 17 August, 2017).
A recovery in the countryˉs trade balance has typically preceded previous recoveries
in cement demand and the former continues to indicate brighter prospects ahead.
In addition, benchmark interest rates have been cut to their lowest ever and property
volumes in the country have been contracting for almost four years; thus both the
pent-up demand and the trigger to stimulate it are present: our Indonesian demand
growth forecast for 2H17-2018 remains around c9%y-o-y.
Likely rapid recovery in utilisation and margins ahead; we rate SMGR Buy: With
cement ASP slipping below USD60/MT in 2Q17, the profitability of most players other
than the Top-2 has deteriorated to a level where we believe prices and margins are
at a bottom and can only go up. With no incremental supply coming into the market
over the next three years, a rapid recovery in utilisation, ASP and margins is likely.
Against this backdrop, relatively inexpensive valuations make SMGR a compelling
Buy, in our view.
Ratings and estimates
Company Ticker Currency Current
price
TPRating Up/down
side
Market cap
(USDm)
3m ADTV
(USDm)
EV/EBITDA
2018e
EBITDA y-o-
y% 2018e
EBITDA 18e
vs. Street
Semen Indonesia SMGR IJ IDR 10,650 12,600 Buy 18.3 4,676 4.0 7.1x 38.4 30.1
Indocement INTP IJ IDR 19,225 13,200 Reduce -31.3 5,238 3.0 13
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