working paper
The Future of Employment
Carl Benedikt Frey & Michael Osborne
Published by the Oxford Martin Programme
on Technology and Employment
THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW
SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO
COMPUTERISATION
Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne
September 17, 2013
.
Abstract
We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To as-
sess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate
the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, us-
ing a Gaussian process classier. Based on these estimates, we ex-
amine expected impacts of future computerisation on us labour mar-
ket outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of
jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupation’s probability
of computerisation, wages and educational attainment. According
to our estimates, about 47 percent of total us employment is at risk.
We further provide evidence that wages and educational attainment
exhibit a strong negative relationship with an occupation’s proba-
bility of computerisation.
MartinProgrammeontheImpactsofFutureTechnologyforhostingthe“Machinesand
Employment”Workshop.WeareindebtedtoStuartArmstrong,NickBostrom,Eris
Chinellato,MarkCummins,DanielDewey,DavidDorn,AlexFlint,ClaudiaGoldin,
JohnMuellbauer,VincentMueller,PaulNewman,Seánhigeartaigh,AndersSand-
berg,MurrayShanahan,andKeithWoolcockfortheirexcellentsuggestions.
carl.frey@oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk.
Kingdom,mosb@robots.ox.ac.uk.Keywords:OccupationalChoice,TechnologicalChange,WageIn-
equality,Employment,SkillDemand
jelClassication:E24,J24,J31,J62,O33.1 Introduction
In this paper, we address the question: how susceptible are jobs to com-
puterisation Doing so, we build on the existing literature in two ways.
First, drawing upon recent advances in Machine Learning (ml) and Mobile
Robotics (mr), we develop a novel methodology to categorise occupations
according to their susceptibility to computerisation.1 Second, we imple-
ment this methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for
702 detailed occupations, and examine expected impacts of future com-
puterisation on us labour market outcomes.
Our paper is motivated by John Maynard Keynes’s frequently cited pre-
diction of widespread technological unemployment “due to our discovery of
means of economising the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we
can nd new uses for labour” (Keynes, 1933, p. 3). Indeed, over the past
decades, computers have substituted for a number of jobs, including the
functions of bookkeepers, cashiers and telephone operators (Bresnahan,
1999; MGI, 2013). More recently, the poor performance of labour markets
across advanced economies has intensied the debate about technological
unemployment among economists. While there is ongoing disagreement
about the driving forces behind the persistently high unemployment rates,
a number of scholars have pointed at computer-controlled equipment as a
possible explanation for recent jobless growth (see, for example, Brynjolf-
sson and McAfee, 2011).2
The impact of computerisation on labour market outcomes is well-
established in the literature, documenting the decline of employment in
routine intensive occupations – i.e. occupations mainly consisting of tasks
following well-dened procedures that can easily be performed by sophis-
ticated algorithms. For example, studies by Charles, et al. (2013) and
Jaimovich and Siu (2012) emphasise that the ongoing decline in manufac-
turing employment and the disappearance of other routine jobs is causing
1Werefertocomputerisationasjobautomationbymeansofcomputer-controlled
equipment.
2ThisviewndssupportinarecentsurveybytheMcKinseyGlobalInstitute(mgi),
showingthat44percentofrmswhichreducedtheirheadcountsincethenancialcrisis
of2008haddonesobymeansofautomation(MGI,2011).。。。以上简介无排版格式，详细内容请下载查看