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本文选取 2009-2014 年沪深两市 A 股主板上市公司作为研究样本,首次将分
析师预测和企业融资约束纳入同一研究框架,具体从预测误差和预测分歧两方面
讨论了分析师预测对企业融资活动可能产生的影响。在此基础上,进一步讨论了
企业个体特征(产权性质和企业规模)对二者关系的调节作用。研究结果显示:
分析师预测误差与企业融资约束显著正相关,预测分歧与企业融资约束也显著正
相关。这表明分析师预测在市场上具有信息效应,能够影响经济资源的配置。然
而,分析师预测对融资约束的影响会随着企业的不同而产生较大的差异。与国有
和规模较大的企业相比,分析师预测对融资约束的影响在民营和规模较小的企业
中表现得更加明显。本文在前期学者研究的基础上,将融资约束的影响因素进一
步延伸至分析师预测领域,不仅扩展了融资约束影响因素的研究视角,还丰富了
分析师预测经济后果的研究内容。同时,为监管部门进一步规范和监督分析师的
预测行为提供了理论依据,推动了资本市场的健康发展
关键词:分析师预测,融资约束,信息中介,预测误差,预测分歧II
Research on the Effect ofAnalysts’Forecasts on Corporate
Financial Constraints
Abstract
Financing is one of the primary economic activities, and it is directly related to the future
development of the enterprise. However, when Chinese enterprises seek outside capital support,
they generally suffer from financial constraints. Information asymmetry increases the external
financing costs, and it is the main reason for financial constraints. Therefore, the key to solve this
problem is to improve the efficiency of information on disclosure, transmission, interpretation,
and feedback. As a information intermediary on the capital market, analysts build a bridge of
information communication between the enterprises and investors. They are the important readers
and communicators about the enterprises’ information, who can use their dual advantages on
information collection and analysis, and finally predict the future profitability of the enterprises.
As a kind of incremental information on the market, analysts’ forecasts can reveal the enterprises’
information environment condition, and also can carry on the early warning of the investment risk,
affecting the investors&39; risk assessment and value judgment. In recent years the analyst team is
growing constantly, and analyst industry also is gradually standardized and specialized. what role
have analysts played on the capital mark What’s the impact of analysts’ forecasts on the
corporate financing activities Based on our country’s institutional environment, this paper will
examine the function of analysts’forecasts.
Regarding 2009-2014 A-share listed companies in our country as the research sample, this
paper will put analysts’ forecasts and corporate financial constraints into a research framework,
discussing how analysts’ forecasts influence the financial constraints. At the same time, we further
discuss the moderating function of corporate characteristics (property and scale). The result shows
that analyst forecast error is positively correlated with financial constraints, and analyst forecast
dispersion also is positively correlated with financial constraints. This suggests that analysts’
forecasts can affect the allocation of market resources. However, there is a difference about the
effect of analysts’ forecasts on financial constraints in the different enterprises. Furthermore,
compared with the state-owned and larger enterprises, the impact of analysts’ forecasts on
financial constraints is more obvious in the private and smaller enterprises. On the basis of
previous study, this paper enriches the literature about the economic consequences of analysts’III
forecasts and also expands the research about affecting factors of financial constraints. In addition,
it provides the theoretical basis for market supervision department to further standardize analysts’
behavior, which can effectively promote the healthy development of our capital market.
Key words:analysts’forecasts,financial constraints,information intermediary,
forecast error,forecast dispersion目 录
中文摘要......I
Abstract....II
第一章 绪论......... 1
1.1 研究背景与研究意义.1
1.1.1 研究背景..........1
1.1.2 研究意义..........2
1.2 研究思路与研究方法.3
1.2.1 研究思路..........3
1.2.2 研究方法..........5
1.3 研究内容安排与创新点.........5
1.3.1 研究内容安排..5
1.3.2 可能创新之处..6
第二章 文献综述.7
2.1 核心概念的界定.........7
2.1.1 分析师预测的概念......7
2.1.2 融资约束的概念..........8
2.2 分析师预测的有效性及经济后果的研究.....9
2.2.1 分析师预测的有效性研究......9
2.2.2 分析师预测的经济后果研究10
2.3 融资约束的影响因素及度量方法研究.......11
2.3.1 融资约束的影响因素研究....11
2.3.2 融资约束的度量方法研究....13
2.4 文献述评.......16
第三章 制度背景与理论基础...173.1 制度背景.......17
3.1.1 分析师存在的必要性17
3.1.2 我国分析师行业的发展历程18
3.2 理论基础.......20
3.2.1 有效市场理论20
3.2.2 信息不对称理论........21
第四章 理论分析与研究假设...23
4.1 分析师预测对企业融资约束的影响研究...23
4.2 企业个体特征对分析师预测与融资约束关系的调节作用...........24
4.2.1 产权性质的调节作用24
4.2.2 企业规模的调节作用25
第五章 研究设计.......
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