摘要
通过深入分析电力营销风险的特征，制定与之相匹配的管控措施，这一研究
对于保障供电企业切身利益有着非常重要的作用，近年来也越来越受到供电企业
的关注。对于绍兴地区而言，由于受到地理环境、产业特征的影响，经济活动发
达、产业较为集中。但是，由于缺乏与之相匹配的电力营销模式，绍兴供电公司
在电力营销风险管控方面存在着管理与用户两个层面的问题，其中管理方面的问
题主要体现在管理体制、管理水平和管理协调三个方面，而用户层面的问题主要
体现在对用户电量变化感知度不够、用户信用管理缺乏、用户行业发展前景不可
预知等，这些问题的存在一定程度上加大了绍兴公司电力营销风险，也表明了加
强绍兴供电公司电力营销风险管控的迫切性和必要性

针对绍兴供电公司电力营销风险管控中存在的问题，本文通过对营销业务系
统、用电采集系统、生产管理系统等跨业务系统连接方式和切入点进行了深入的
探讨。在管理方面，提出了建立事前事中事后防控的闭环式全过程管理；在用户
方面，提出了利用标准方差、线性回归及 ARIMA 时间序列算法等大数据处理方
法进行分析，从而建立了电力营销风险管控模式。即建立以日电量数据为基础的
用户日电量风险评定模型，实现用电数据监控实时化；综合用户地理信息、缴费
方式、缴费及时性、诚信档案、窃电及违约用电记录等要素，为客户制定各种信
用标签，并采用评分的方式建立用户信用风险评定模型，实现用户管理分类化；
基于科学合理的数学算法，建立以日电量为基础的电量预测模型，实现用户电量
风险可控化。并通过在绍兴供电公司的实际运用情况和风险管控提升效果，提出
了这一电力营销风险管控模式及实施建议

关键词：大数据；电力营销；风险管控华北电力大学硕士学位论文
II
Abstract
Analyzing the characteristics of the electric power marketing risk and drawing up a
control measures play a very important role in guaranteeing the interests of power supply
enterprises. As a result, it gets more and more attention in recent years. Due to the
influence of geographical environment and industry characteristics, Shaoxing has formed
a well-developed economy and centralized industry. However, lacking of a matched
marketing mode of power, power supply companies in Shaoxing has two kinds of
problems in electric power marketing risk controlling. One is in management and the
other is in users’ level. The problem of management mainly embodies in the management
system, management capability and management coordination. The problem of users
mainly embodied in users’ perception of power change which is not enough, lacking of
customer credit management and unpredictable user development prospects, etc. To some
extent, these problems not only increase the marketing risk of Shaoxing electric power
companies, but also suggest the urgency and necessity of strengthening electric power
marketing risk controls.
For the problems of Shaoxing power supply companies in electric power marketing
risk control, this paper makes a deep discussion of promotion measures from two aspects:
management and customers levels. In management level, we put forward a closed loop
type of whole process management whose control can be forehand and afterwards. In
customers’ level, this paper makes a deep discussion of breakthrough point and systems
connection mode through marketing system, electricity system and production
management system. Based on the big data processing methods such as standard variance,
linear regression and ARIMA time series algorithm, we set up the electric power
marketing risk control mode. That is to say, we will establish a risk evaluation model of
electricity data on the basis of the daily data of users and to monitoring the data in
real-time. By synthesizing the elements such as user geographic information, payment
methods, payment timeliness, credit archives and power theft and default record, we can
make credit indexes for customers and set up a user credit risk evaluation model to
implement user management classification. At last, we establish the electricity power
prediction mode based on daily data for realizing the user power risk controllable. Based
on the risk control effect of practical application in the power supply companies of
Shaoxing, we put forward the electric power marketing risk control mode and get
recommendations of the implementation.
Keywords: Big data; Electric power marketing；Risk management and control华北电力大学硕士学位论文
III
目 录
摘要.......I
ABSTRACT.....II
第 1 章 绪 论... 1
1.1 研究背景及意义1
1.2 国内外研究现状.2
1.2.1 大数据研究现状..... 2
1.2.2 电力营销风险管控研究现状........3
1.3 研究内容和基本框架.....5
1.4 研究方案及目标.5
1.4.1 研究方案...... 5
1.4.2 研究目标...... 6
第 2 章 大数据分析及电力营销风险管控相关理论...........8
2.1 大数据分析相关理论.....8
2.1.1 大数据定义..8
2.1.2 大数据分析的常用算法......9
2.2 电力营销风险管控相关理论.. 12
2.2.1 风险管控理论........12
2.2.2 电力营销风险管控理论... 16
2.3 本章小结18
第 3 章 绍兴供电公司营销风险管控现状分析.....19
3.1 绍兴供电公司电力营销风险管控现状..........19
3.1.1 绍兴电力发展概况19
3.1.2 绍兴供电公司电力营销风险管控模式.20
3.2 绍兴供电公司电力营销风险管控中存在的问题....
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