首页 > 资料专栏 > 经营 > 管理顾问 > 咨询公司 > 罗兰贝格2017年油价走势预测英文版22页

罗兰贝格2017年油价走势预测英文版22页

qinjunh***
V 实名认证
内容提供者
热门搜索
罗兰贝格 油价
资料大小:588KB(压缩后)
文档格式:WinRAR
资料语言:中文版/英文版/日文版
解压密码:m448
更新时间:2018/10/29(发布于广西)

类型:积分资料
积分:25分 (VIP无积分限制)
推荐:升级会员

   点此下载 ==>> 点击下载文档


文本描述
Information document
Amsterdam, February 17, 2017
2017 oil price
forecast: who
predicts best
2 170217_Oil_Producers_Price_Forecast_2017.pptxSince 2007, Roland Berger has published a yearly overview of
available oil price forecasts
Last year's results
USD 49 forecast1) for 2016
Top-3 best forecasting countries
50
50
48
Saudi Arabia
Nigeria
Iraq
22
20Saudi Arabia
Nigeria
Iraq
Period 1999-2016
Average absolute year-on-year oil price forecasting1) error [%]
Since 2007, Roland Berger has published
a yearly study on the oil price forecast
Major oil-producing countries use a
forecasted value of the oil price in their
annual budgets
We have studied the forecasting track
records of the ten largest oil-exporting
countries from 1999 to 2016
The budgeted oil prices of the top 3 most
accurate countries are used to forecast the
oil price for the year ahead
The oil price forecast of the countries is
compared to that of the major energy
institutions: NYMEX, EIA and OECD
Roland Berger study of oil price forecasts, February 2017, WTI based
Source: Roland Berger
1) To improve comparability, forecasts are adjusted for the ratio of local oil prices to WTI prices (2012-2014) and for average budget deviations (1999-2014, excluding 2001, 2009 and
2015)
3 170217_Oil_Producers_Price_Forecast_2017.pptxIn 2016 the average price for a barrel was USD 43, lower than the
USD 49 predicted by the top-3 countries
Source: EIA1030
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
43
49
2016 average
USD 49
Top 3
forecast
Development of monthly WTI averages [USD/bbl], Jan 2006 – Dec 2016
2015 average
4 170217_Oil_Producers_Price_Forecast_2017.pptxThis year's study not only assesses the accuracy of last year's
forecasts, but also analyzes market dynamics and future pricesAnalysis of the accuracy of countries and institutions as forecasters of
the oil price in 2016 and over past years
ACCURACY OF OIL
PRICE FORECASTSCHANGING
MARKET
DYNAMICS
Analysis of the changing market dynamics since the US has become a
major exporter of (shale) oil and analysis of the current oversupply in the
global oil marketFUTURE OIL
PRICES
Analysis of oil price forecasts of countries and institutions and
underlying political and market dynamics
Elements of this year's study
5 170217_Oil_Producers_Price_Forecast_2017.pptxInstitutions have become the better price forecasters – For 2017
they predict an average of USD 50 per barrel
Before 2009, the top oil exporting countries outperformed the institutions (NYMEX, EIA, OECD) in correctly
forecasting the oil price
Since 2009 however, the institutions have forecasted the oil price significantly better than the countries
Since the start of the shale gas boom, the US has not only been one of the major producers of oil, but is also exports
significant amounts of oil
Oil-producing countries – Saudi Arabia in particular – have often adapted their oil output to price levels, thereby
influencing the oil price
The dynamics have changed since American shale oil entered the equation. North American shale oil is moving
towards being the swing supply
After resisting production cutbacks for over a year, OPEC decided in November 2016 to reduce crude oil production by
1.8 million barrels per day. This significant drop in supply should drive up the low oil price
What will the future bring Will the oversupply be curtailed by OPEC countries50
55
Institutions
Top-3 countries Prediction for the 2017
oil price
[USD/bbl]
Accuracy of oil
price forecastsChanging market
dynamicsFuture oil prices
Improved performance of institutions vs. countries in the oil price forecast
Source: Roland Berger
。。。以上简介无排版格式,详细内容请下载查看