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文本描述
BLUEPAPER
Wholesale Banks & Asset Managers
The World Turned Upside Down
O
ur new work suggests that in a reversal of fortunes Asset Managers now face
intensifying top-line pressures from cheap beta and regulations, while Banks are
primed for upside with regulatory shifts helping to drive RoE up by ~300bps.
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment
decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
+ = Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions
on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Oliver Wyman is a global leader in management consulting. For more information, visit oliverwyman.
Oliver Wyman is not authorized or regulated by the PRA or the FCA and is not providing investment advice. Oliver Wyman authors are not research analysts and are neither
FCA nor FINRA registered. Oliver Wyman authors have only contributed their expertise on business strategy within the report. Oliver Wyman’s views are clearly delineated.
The securities and valuation sections of report are the work of Morgan Stanley only and not Oliver Wyman.
For disclosures specifically pertaining to Oliver Wyman, please see the Disclosure Section located at the end of this report.
BLUEPAPER
Authors
MORGAN STANLEYOLIVER WYMAN
1 Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
2 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc
Betsy L. Graseck, CFA
Equity Analyst
+1212 1 761-8473
Betsy.Graseck@morganstanleyMichael J. Cyprys, CFA, CPA
Equity Analyst
+1212 761-7619
Michael.Cyprys@morganstanleyVishwanath Tirupattur
Strategist
+1212 761-1043
Vishwanath.Tirupattur@morganstanleyMagdalena L Stoklosa
Equity An alyst
+44 20 7425-3933
Magdalena.Stoklosa@morganstanleyBruce Hamilton
Equity Analyst
+44 20 7425-7597
Bruce.Hamilton@morganstanleyAnil Sharma, CFA
Equity Analyst
+4420 7425-8828
Anil.K.Sharma@morganstanleyChristian Edelmann, CFA
Partner
+44 20 7852 7557
Christian.Edelmann@oliverwyman
James Davis
Partner
+44 20 7852 7631
James.Davis@oliverwyman
Dylan Walsh
Partner
+1 646 364 8676
Dylan.Walsh@oliverwyman
Mariya Rosberg
Partner
+1 646 364 8448
Mariya.Rosberg@oliverwyman
Patrick Hunt
Principal
+44 20 7852 7608
Patrick.Hunt@oliverwyman
Aaron Sonenfeld
+1 212 345 0895
Aaron.Sonenfeld@oliverwyman
Harriet Roberts
+44 20 7852 7022
Harriet.Roberts@oliverwyman
David Selman
+44 20 7852 7030
David.Selman@oliverwymanBLUEPAPER
4 Joint Executive Summary
9 Messages from Our Proprietary Survey
11 Asset Managers
20 Wholesale Banks
ContentsBLUEPAPER
Joint Executive Summary
We see a reversal of fortunes for Wholesale Banks and Asset
Managers. The effects of Quantitative Easing (QE) and bank regu-
lation drove a more than $100BN divergence in revenues since
2011, with Asset Managers up $65BN and Wholesale Banks down
$45BN. This now looks set to go into reverse. Asset Managers face
growing fee pressures whereas Wholesale Banks will benefit from
shifts in policy, technology, and operating leverage. But the gulf
between winning and losing firms will widen in both Asset Man-
agement and Wholesale Banking.
We expect six major drivers of value over the next three to five years:
lIntense fee pressure for Asset Managers, triggering cost
programs and consolidation
lRe-engineering of active Asset Management, as seizing
alpha opportunities becomes more critical than ever (e.g.
unconstrained, private market assets, solutions)
lIncreasing capacity and revenues for the Wholesale Banks,
driven by a tempering of regulation and rising rates
lA structural shift in Wholesale Banking revenue pools,
from institutional to corporate clients
lPressure on flow trading and research, but growth in more
capital intensive activities
lTechnology driving down Wholesale Banking costs, but
opening up new forms of competition
Exhibit 1:
World turned upside down
+55 (+7%)
+10 (+1%)
-9 (-1%)
-34 (-4%)
-10 (-1%)
+15 (+2%)
Asset ManagersWholesale Banks
40 40
Historical revenue changes Base case forecast
2010 to 2013 2013 to 2016 2016 to 2019(f)
AM AM WB AM WB WB
Change in revenues, Asset Managers vs. Wholesale Banks, 2010-19(f), $BN (% CAGR)
Source: Oliver Wyman analysis
Exhibit 2:
Pressure points and value are shifting across the securities industry
Total value captured 2016 $BN, Outlook to 2019
Banks & Broker
Dealers
Traditional Asset
Managers
Hedge Funds &
Alternatives
Market
Infrastructure1
Boutiques &
specialists2
Retail service3--$30 - 35BN< $2BN--~ $10BN
Research, solutions, active management~ $15BN~ $105BN~ $60BN~ $25BN~ $5BN
Beta provision and administration--~ $80BN~ $8BN~ $50BN--
Financing~ $35BN< $2BN--< $2BN< $1BN
Market connectivity~ $35BN$8 - 10BN$20BN~ $20BN--
Risk warehousing and recycling~ $65BN--< $2BN--~ $5BN
Issuer risk transfer~ $15BN--------
Origination~ $35BN----< $2BN< $2BN
Corporate advisory~ $20BN------~ $10BN
~ $225BN~ $225BN~$90BN~$100BN~$35BNTotal value captured
Investment
management
Trading
Liability generation
& advisory
Strong growth Modest pressure Severe pressure Modest growth
1.Includes Inter Dealer Brokers, Exchanges, Central securities depositories, Custodians, Data providers.2.Defined as organizations that participate in only one activity within this table, to include Non-Bank Liquidity Providers, specialist data providers and independent corporate advisory firms.
3.Represents the incremental costs borne by retail investors to access Asset Management services, not including retail distribution feesSource: Oliver Wyman analysisBLUEPAPER
Asset Management
Revenue growth turning negative with secular indus-
try re-pricing
Sustained fee pressure is a growing threat for Asset Managers.
Margins contracted ~6% in 2016, more than offsetting modest
growth in AUM and leaving revenues down ~5%. Fee declines were
steepest at the ends of the barbell (passives and Hedge Funds) but
pockets of resilience were hard to find elsewhere. Conditions for
Asset Managers should improve over 2017-19 as QE recedes, rates
rise, volatility increases and correlations decline, improving perform-
ance and driving up net inflows. The challenge is that the forces driv-
ing margin compression appear unlikely to abate. Our base case is for
fees to compress a further ~10% by 2019 compounded by a ~7% reve-
nue decline arising from shifts to lower fee products offsetting asset
growth to leave total revenues down ~3% 2016-19.
Our analysis shows that the link between fund performance and
asset flows is breaking down. The shift to passive is well under-
stood but the market may have underestimated the extent of change
underway in active. The correlation between fund performance and
flows has weakened, with fee levels becoming the more important
driver. Flows between active funds are still ~2.5 times greater than
flows from active to passive, meaning pricing strategy and accessing
pockets of growth become ever more important.
Downside risks outweigh the potential upside. We see growing
focus amongst end investors on the absolute level of returns after
costs, meaning fee pressures would be heightened in a lower return
environment, exacerbated by a regulatory push for transparency. We
outline two bear scenarios - one built around persistent low returns,
the other around a classic boom/bust cycle. In both scenarios, 2019
revenues are down ~30% vs 2016. Our bull case is for ~17% revenue
growth driven by growing AUM and moderating fee pressure.
Exhibit 3:
We expect revenue to be lower in 2019 with AUM growth failing to com-
pensate for margin compression
~7
~10 ~14
2019(f)Product mix shiftFee pressureAUM growth2016
Base case indexed revenue outlook, 2016-19(f), 2016 indexed to 100
100 97
Revenue range based on scenarios as described in the Asset Management section
Source: Oliver Wyman analysis
The core proposition must evolve, blurring tradi-
tional product lines
Fundamental changes to the core proposition will be required to
meet the challenge. Managers would be mistaken to think that cost
reductions alone will be sufficient to address what we believe will be
a multi-year process of adjustment. Approaches will vary by Asset
Manager, but we expect to see many re-engineering the role of port-
folio management as they look to either provide returns more
cheaply or explore ways to generate more sustainable alpha. For
example, we expect growth in high active share funds, unconstrained
strategies and solutions as well as a growing adoption of risk factor
approaches to investing. Traditional boundaries between active and
passive, and between core active and alternatives, will blur as firms
seek to access growth.
Ironically, active Asset Managers themselves could reinforce
growth for passive providers. Asset allocators are increasingly
using near-zero cost Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) to source beta,
allowing them to focus fee budgets on high conviction strategies or
alternative investments. We believe this approach could be more
widely adopted by others, accelerating flows to ETFs and contribut-
ing to our estimated $2-3TN AUM increase over the next three to five
years. Over time we see increasing usage by mutual funds them-
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