摘要
“房地产风险管理”对于绝大部分企业来说还仅仅是一个理论或者认为根
本不值得投入金钱去做这件事。2006 年 6 月，国务院出台了《中央企业全面风
险管理指引》，要求央企及其直属的上市公司开展全面的风险管理建设工作，拉
开了中国企业风险管理建设的序幕。十多年过去了，房地产行业至今仍没有一套
全面的、统一的风险管理工作指导手册，房地产开发中涉及的政策风险、财务风
险、投资风险、管理风险、法律风险等更多被各自学科部门单独研究，而彼此缺
乏沟通、联系、信息交换，没有围绕房地产项目建立的全面风险管控体系和操作
流程。绝大多数企业更多的是停留在事中或事后对风险的应对或处置，基本处于
被动应对风险的层面。风险管理对经营决策应有的指导作用并没有完全发挥出
来

本文正是基于上述现状，以当前项目风险管理主流理论为基础，以资阳市置
地城项目作为具体案例进行分析。本文借助当代风险管理的理论知识对项目进行
风险识别、风险评估，并提出风险应对措施。希望能帮助置地城项目建立一套行
之有效的风险管控体系。能客观、公正、有效地识别风险、评估风险及制定应对
策略，进而确保项目开发的各项目标得以实现

本文对房地产项目在开发中可能面临的项目风险因素进行了分析，并对房
地产项目风险管理中应如何运用当前理论指导识别风险、分析风险及应对风险等
实践工作进行了探讨。运用恰当的分析工具及方法，以置地城项目为例，建立了
相应的评价体系，运用文献研究法、调查问卷法、层次分析法、模糊综合评价法
等从定性及定量两方面进行实证研究，并得出风险评估结论，继而有针对性的提
出风险应对策略，帮助开发企业建立风险管控体系

关键词：项目管理；风险管理；房地产项目；综合模糊评价法；III
Abstract
It seems that “management and control of risk in real estate” is merely a theory
or a useless doctrine with high cost. In June of 2006, after SASAC of the State
Department issued “The guideline of Comprehensive Risk Management for Central
Enterprises”, demanding an overall management and establishment of risk to be
carried out in listed companies of those central enterprises, which meant the curtain
was lifted. However, now, a decade passed, the real estate industry is still lack of a
guide book to provide a comprehensive and unified way to control the risk. Various
categories of risks involved in real estate industry like policy risk, investment risk,
financing risk and legal risk etc. are studied by different separated disciplines, among
which there is little communication, relation or information exchanging, and these
separated disciplines may also estrange from establishment of comprehensive system
and operating procedure of risk control for real estate projects. In such circumstances,
the majority of real estate companies are inclined to deal with risks in the wake of or
after the occurrences, which on the one hand put companies in a passive position to
face and manage risks, and on the other hand the guide to operation activities and
strategies cannot play a full role, thus the value of risk management is trivial.
Based on the condition discussed earlier, the thesis will use the mainstream
theories of project risk management as a foundation to analyze the project named
ZhiDiCheng in the third-line city, Ziyang, trying to recognize and evaluate its
potential risks and put forward appropriate solutions on the bases of theories of
modern risk management, in hope of establishing risk-managing-and-controlling
system efficiently for projects of ZhiDiCheng, which could help them to recognize
and evaluate risks positively, correctly and efficiently, and furthermore, could be
helpful in drafting dealing strategies so as to ensure the economic targets of the
project to be achieved.
In this thesis, the potential risk-causing factors that could be encountered in RealIV
estate development will be analyzed, and meanwhile how to use the current theory to
recognize, analyze and deal with risks in the real estate project management will also
be discussed. Besides, the thesis employed proper analyzing tools and methods, took
ZhiDiCheng as an example and established a corresponding assessing system.
Through literature research study, questionnaire, analytic hierarchy process and
comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method, the thesis conducted an experimental study
qualitatively and quantitatively, and eventually got a conclusion about risk evaluation
and afterwards brought forward policies to cope with risks, which will be helpful for
development of enterprises to set up a risk-control system.
Key words: Project management, Risk management, Real estate project, Fuzzy
synthetic evaluation methodV
目 录
1 绪 论......- 1 -
1.1 研究背景、意义与目的.- 1 -
1.1.1 研究背景..- 1 -
1.1.2 研究目的与意义..- 2 -
1.2 国内外文献研究综述.....- 3 -
1.2.1 国外研究现状......- 4 -
1.2.2 国内研究现状......- 4 -
1.3 研究方法及框架..- 7 -
1.3.1 研究方法...- 7 -
1.3.2 研究框架..- 7 -
1.3.3 本文创新点...........- 8 -
2 房地产项目风险管理理论及体系构建- 9 -
2.1 房地产风险管理基础理论..........- 9 -
2.1.1 房地产项目风险的内涵和特征...- 9 -
2.1.2 房地产项目的风险管理内容.....- 11 -
2.2 风险分析方法...- 12 -
2.2.1 风险识别方法....- 12 -
2.2.2 风险评估方法....- 13 -
2.2.3 风险应对方法....- 14 -
2.3 构建置地城项目风险管理体系- 15 -
2.3.1 风险管理组织架构.........- 15 -
2.3.2 风险管理内容.....- 16 -
2.3.3 风险管理实施.....- 19 -
3 置地城项目风险识别...- 20 -
3.1 项目概况- 21 -
3.2 基于德尔菲方法进行风险识别- 22 -
3.2.1 风险识别的步骤.- 22 -
3.2.2 置地城项目的风险因素分析.....- 23 -
3.2.3 专家调查.- 26 -
3.3 风险识别结论分析.......- 28 -
3.3.1 市场风险.- 28 -
3.3.2 财务风险.- 32 -
3.3.3 管理风险.- 32 -VI
3.3.4 其他风险.- 34 -
4 置地城项目风险评价- 35 -
4.1 风险评价工具的选择...- 35 -
4.2 模糊层次综合评价法风险评价的操作步骤...- 35 -
4.2.1 运用层次分析法确定各风险事件权重的排序.- 35 -
4.2.2 用模糊综合评价法来判断整个项目的风险等级.........- 36 -
4.3 基于层次分析法确定置地城项目各风险事件的权重...........- 36 -
4.3.1 建立置地城项目风险结构模型.- 36 -
4.3.2 构造准则层判断矩阵并计算.....- 37 -
4.3.3 构造指标层判断矩阵并计算.....- 39 -
4.3.4 指标层的总排序
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