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BOT模式下垃圾焚烧发电项目风险管理研究_MBA毕业论文DOC

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文本描述
摘要
随着我国经济以及城镇化的进一步发展,城市垃圾的处理问题一直是
各地方政府非常关心的主要市政问题之一,同时也是大部分民众都非常关
心的问题。因为城市生活垃圾如果没有得到妥善的解决,长期而言就必然
会对地方环境带来相应的影响,进而极大的影响人们的生活质量。由此,
很多人认为,应该对垃圾处理的方式进行改进,比如利用“资源化、减
量化、无害化”的新技术来发电,这样就可以实现一举两得了。如今,这
种处理方式似乎在生活垃圾处理中的应用中越来越广泛。由于我国财政资
金的部分限制,BOT模式成为了大多数垃圾焚烧发电项目采用的首选

BOT模式下的垃圾焚烧发电项目具有资金量大、资金回收期长、技术要
求高、合约关系复杂等特点,而且现在很多相关的政策法规也不够完善,
因此在投资、建设和运维方面等都存在不小的风险

本论文根据风险管理的相关理论,通过多案例研宄的方法,分析了
16个典型案例,并归纳总结了 BOT模式下垃圾焚烧发电项目共五大类12
种风险要素。然后运用层次分析法对识别出的风险进行评价,并详细阐述
了这些风险的应对措施。最后结合GAT垃圾焚烧发电项目,按照前面论
述的方法进行了风险的识别、评价,并提出了相应的应对措施,为其他
BOT模式下垃圾焚烧发电项目提供理论和实践指导

关键词:BOT模式;垃圾焚烧发电;风险管理
ABSTRACT
RESEARCH ON RISK MANAGEMENT OF WASTE
INCINERATION POWER GENERATION PROJECT IN BOT
MODE
ABSTRACT
Along with our country economy and the further development of
urbanization, city garbage disposal problem has been one of the main
municipal problems are very concerned about the local government, but also
the majority of the people are very concerned about the problem. Because of
the city&39;s garbage has not been properly resolved, in the long term will
inevitably bring about a corresponding impact on the local environment,
which greatly affect people&39;s quality of life. As a result, many people believe
that it should be on the way to improve waste disposal, such as the use of
resources, reduction, harmless, the new technology to generate electricity, so
you can achieve two birds with one stone. Today, this approach seems to be
more and more widely used in the treatment of domestic waste. Due to the
limited part of China&39;s financial capital, BOT model has become the first
choice of most waste incineration power generation projects. With a large
amount of funds, long payback period, high technical requirements, the
contractual relationship between the characteristics of complex BOT under the
mode of waste incineration power generation projects, and now a lot of
ABSTRACT
relevant policies and regulations are not perfect, so in the investment,
construction and operation and maintenance etc. there are no small risk.
Based on the theory of risk management, this paper analyzes 16 typical
cases through the method of multi case study, and sums up 12 kinds of risk
factors in the BOT mode, which is composed of five categories. And then use
the analytic hierarchy process to identify the risks, and elaborate the measures
of these risks. Finally, GAT waste incineration power generation projects, in
accordance with the method mentioned above are risk identification,
evaluation, and puts forward the corresponding measures for other BOT under
the mode of waste incineration power generation projects to provide
theoretical and practical guidance.
Key words: BOT mode; waste incineration power generation; risk
management
目录
第一章绪论 1
1.1研宄背景和意义1.1.1研宄背景1. 1.2研究意义1.2相关概念的界定1. 2. 1 BOT 模式 3
1.2.2 BOT模式下垃圾焚烧发电项目1.3 BOT模式下垃圾焚烧发电项目风险管理的特点1.3. 1风险管理的理论1.3.2 BOT项目风险管理的特点1.4 BOT模式下垃圾焚烧发电项目现状和风险管理的必要性1.4.1 BOT模式下垃圾焚烧发电项目的现状1.4.2 BOT模式下垃圾焚烧发电项目风险管理的必要性1.5研宄内容、研宄方法和技术路线1.5. 1研宄内容1. 5. 2技术路线1.5.3研宄方法第二章国内外研究综述2. 1国外研宄现状2.2国内研究现状2.3文献评述 15
第三章BOT模式下垃圾焚烧发电项目风险识别和评价3.1 B0T模式下垃圾焚烧发电项目风险识别3. 1. 1风险识别方法选择目录
3.1.2 BOT模式下垃圾焚烧发电项目风险的多案例分析3. 1.3识别的风险分类归集3.2 BOT模式下垃圾焚烧发电项目风险评价
24
3.2. 1建立BOT模式下垃圾焚烧发电项目风险要素层次结构
25
3. 2. 2构造判断矩阵
25
3. 2. 3层次单排序
26
3. 2. 4层次总排序
27
3. 2. 5 —致性检验
28
第四章BOT模式下垃圾焚烧发电项目风险应对
29
4. 1运营风险应对
29
4. 1. 1环境污染风险应对
29
4. 1. 2垃圾供应风险应对
29
4. 1.3收益减少风险应对
30
4.1.4费用支付风险应对
30
4. 2民意风险应对
31
4. 3政府风险应对
31
4. 3. 1政府决策风险应对
31
4. 3. 2政策法规风险应对
32
4. 3.3政府信用风险应对
33
4. 4建设风险应对
33
4. 4. 1延迟完工风险应对
33
4. 4. 2设计变更风险应对
34
4. 4. 3工程质量风险应对
34
4.5技术风险应对
35
第五章案例分析——以GAT项目为例
37
5. 1 GAT垃圾焚烧发电项目的概况
37
5.2 GAT垃圾焚烧发电项目的风险识别
37
5.2. 1运营风险
37
5.2.2民意风险
38
5. 2. 3建设风险
39
5.2. 4政府风险
39
5. 2. 5技术风险
40
5.3 GAT垃圾焚烧发电项目的风险评价
41
5. 3. 1构建模型矩阵并计算
41
5. 3. 2评价结论
43
5.4 GAT垃圾焚烧发电项目的风险应对
44
5.4. 1运营风险的应对
44
5. 4.2民意风险的应对
45
5. 4. 3建设风险的应对
45
5. 4. 4政府风险的应对
45
第六章结论及展望
47
6. 1结论 47
6. 2创新点 47
6. 3展望 48
参考文献 49
^ ilt 53
作者和导师简介
55 Contents
Contents
Chapter 1 Introduction1.1 Research background and significance1.1.1 Research background1.1.2 Research meaning1.2 Definition of related concepts1.2.1 BOT mode 3
1.2.2 Waste incineration power generation project under BOT mode1.3 Characteristics of risk management of waste incineration power generation project
under BOT mode 4
1.3.1 Risk management theory1.3.2 The characteristics of BOT project risk management1A The present situation of waste incineration power generation project in BOT mode
and the necessity of risk management1.4.1 Current situation of waste incineration power generation project in BOT mode.. 8
1.4.2 The necessity of risk management of waste incineration power generation project
under BOT mode1.5 Research contents、research methods and technical routes1.5.1 Research contents1.5.2 Technology roadmap1.5.3 Research methodChapter 2 Domestic and foreign research review2.1 Foreign research status2.2 Domestic research status2.3 Literature reviewChapter 3 The risk identification and evaluation of waste incineration
power generation project in BOT mode
17 Contents
3.1 Risk identification of waste incineration power generation project based on BOT
model 17
3.1.1 Risk identification method selection3.1.2 Multi case analysis of the risk of waste incineration power generation project
based on BOT model3.1.3 Identification of risk classification3.2 Risk assessment of waste incineration power generation project based on BOT model
24
3.2.1 The establishment of risk factors hierarchical structure of waste incineration
power generation project based on BOT model
25
3.2.2 Structure judgment matrix
25
3.2.3 Hierarchical single sort
26
3.2.4 Hierarchy total ordering
27
3.2.5 Consistency check
28
Chapter 4 BOT model of waste incineration power generation project
risk response 29
4.1 Operational risk resp
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