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然而在盈利预测补偿协议实际运用过程中，出现并购标的资产“高估值”、
“高盈利预测”、“高业绩补偿”的三高现象，且上市公司关于并购标的未能
完成盈利预测指标的公告层出不穷。盈利预测补偿制度能否规范资本市场、
保护上市公司利益，引起了我国相关研究者的关注
本文以神州高铁收购武汉利德、交大微联以及中水渔业收购新阳洲的案
例为研究对象，分析研究盈利预测补偿协议的条款设置是否能起到保护上市
公司的作用，以及盈利预测补偿协议的完成情况是否对上市公司的超额收益
与财务指标造成影响。本文首先对并购重组及盈利预测补偿协议进行介绍，
然后分析盈利预测补偿协议的运用现状及影响因素，再通过案例进行实证研
究，最后得出结论并提出相应建议
通过理论分析及实证研究，本文得出结论：首先，盈利预测补偿协议的
条款设置，将对补偿义务人产生不同程度的制约作用，条款设置好坏将直接
影响补偿义务人是否积极完成业绩承诺、上市公司是否能顺利收回补偿款等
其次，从神州高铁及中水渔业的案例来看，完成盈利预测补偿协议约定盈利
指标将对上市公司产生正超额收益，而未完成盈利指标将对上市公司产生负上市并购方运用盈利预测补偿协议研究——基于神州高铁和中水渔业案例研究超额收益。最后，即使标的企业完成盈利预测补偿协议约定业绩也未能立刻
优化神州高铁财务指标，中水渔业亦因新阳洲未完成业绩承诺而导致财务指
标恶化
在研究结论的基础上，本文针对盈利预测补偿协议的条款设置与制度两
方面提出了优化及改进建议，以期使盈利预测补偿协议在并购重组中充分发
挥其应有的作用，使社会及企业资源能得到充分配置和利用，促进我国资本
市场的健康、稳定发展。在盈利预测补偿协议条款设置上，本文提出优先考
虑以股票支付交易对价、设置股票禁售期及现金分期支付、合理选择预测指
标、以支付的交易对价设置补偿金额、设置股权回购选择权条款、设置标的
企业交易价格调整条款等建议。在盈利预测补偿协议的制度改进上，本文建
议:实行双边对赌、加入其它考核指标、强化中介机构的作用与责任、监管部
门加大持续监管力度
关键词：并购重组 盈利预测补偿 超额收益 优化建议AbstractAbstract
Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) are often considered as an useful strategy
to help corporations optimizing the marketing resources, developing the
synergistic effect, improving the management and facilitating the industrial
upgrade. M&A helps the listed companies, which are aiming to expand, grow
larger and stronger. However, many cases have shown that there have been
harmful effects on some of the listed companies and their investors, such as with
paying a premium for acquisition but the acquired company has not reached the
marketable expectation of the listed company, or the major shareholders from the
listed company injects inferior assets and so on. For the purpose of protecting the
interest of the listed companies and their minority investors, China Securities
Regulatory Commission has been implemented a regulation of ‘The Means of
Major Assets Acquisition Management of Listed Company’ on May 18th of 2008.
This regulation requires the listed companies to sign the agreement of profit
forecast compensation if it prices the purchased assets based on the valuation of
the future profit.
In the process of implementing profit forecast compensation plan, it appears
to have three major phenomenon, overvaluation, over profit forecasting and high
performance compensation. And the listed companies often fail to accomplish the
profit forecasting reports. To test whether the profit forecast compensation system
could regulate the capital market and protect the interest of the listed companies
has raised the concern of relevant researchers in China.
Based on the cases of Cathay High-Speed Railway Technology Co.,Ltd
purchasing Wuhan Leaddo Measurement and Control Technology Co.,Ltd, Beijing
Jiaoda Microunion Tech.Co.,Ltd and CNFC Overseas Fishery Co.,Ltd purchasing
Xiamen Xinyangzhou aquatic product industry and Trade Co.,Ltd, this article is
going to focus on analyzing and studying how the profit forecast compensation
agreement would protect the interest of the listed companies, and how thisResearch on the Application of Profit Forecast Compensation Agreement in M&A of the Listed Companies
----Based on Cathay High-Speed Railway Technology Co., Ltd and CNFC Overseas Fishery Co.,Ltd casesagreement would affect to the listed companies to gain abnormal returns. Firstly,
this article will introduce Mergers and Acquisitions strategy and the profit forecast
compensation agreement system. Furthermore, the article will analyze the current
situation of the profit forecast compensation agreement and its influence. Finally,
the article will draw the conclusion and convey the suggestions through studying
the existing cases.
According to the theoretical analysis and empirical studies, this article
conducts the following consequences. First of all, well-established terms of the
profit forecast compensation agreement not only restricts the compensation obligor
to accomplish performance commitment but also assists the listed companies to
retrievethecompensation. Secondly, according to both cases of Cathay High-Speed
Railway Technology Co.,Ltd and CNFC Overseas Fishery Co.,Ltd, accomplishing
the profit forecast compensation agreement would result in gaining an abnormal
returns for the listed companies while unsuccessfully handling the profit forecast
compensation agreement would lead to negative returns. Finally, the financial
reports of Cathay High-Speed Railway Technology Co., Ltd have not been
improved in the short run even the target company has accomplished the profit
forecast compensation agreement. Similarly, the financial health of CNFC
Overseas Fishery Co.,Ltd has deteriorated due to Xiamen Xinyangzhou aquatic
product industry and Trade Co., Ltd failing to complete the performance
commitment.
Based on the research, this article provides suggestions for establishing and
perfecting the terms of the profit forecast compensation agreement, so that the
profit forecast compensation agreement would positively affect M&A and the
resources of society and enterprises can be fully used to promote the capital market
develop stably and healthily. To improve the terms of the profit forecast
compensation agreement, this article recommends in six aspects, such as to
primarily use securities for trading, to set up lock-up periods and cash installments,
to choose reasonable forecast indicators, to set up compensation based on the
payments of the acquisition , to set up the option of share repurchase and to set up
the transaction adjustment for the acquired companies.In order to improving the
profit forecast compensation agreement system. This article also suggests from
four different angles: to implement bilateral bet, to introduce other evaluationAbstractindicators, to Intensify the responsibilities of intermediaries and to reinforce the
supervision of the CSRC.
Keywords: Mergers And Acquisitions；Profit Forecast Compensation；Abnormal
Return；Optimization Recommendation目 录目 录
1 绪论.......... 1
1.1 研究背景........ 1
1.2 研究目的与意义........ 2
2 理论基础与文献综述...... 3
2.1 理论基础........ 3
2.1.1 并购重组概念 ..... 3
2.1.2 并购重组效用理论 ......... 4
2.1.3 并购重组风险理论 ....
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