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文本描述
ab
CIO WM Research
April 2017
How artifcial
intelligence will
transform Asia
Shifting Asia
2 April 2017 Shifing Asia: Artifcial intelligence
Publication details
This report has been prepared by UBS
AG. Please see important disclaimer and
disclosures at the end of the document.
Author
Sundeep Gantori
Editor in Chief
Carl Berrisford
Desktop Publishing
Margrit Oppliger
Werner Kuonen
Project Management
Aaron Kreuscher
Nidhi Mishra*
Cover photo
iStock
Contact
wmrfeedback@ubs
* An employee of Cognizant Group.
Cognizant staf provides support services
to UBS.
Foreword .. 3
Executive summary ........... 4
What is AI, and why is it so important ..... 5
Asia and AI: The beginning of a transformative journey ..... 9
How does AI afect major industries in Asia ........... 15
AI’s economic value for Asia.......... 21
What does AI mean for Asian employment .......... 22
What does AI mean for Asian stakeholders .......... 24
Contents
Shifing Asia: Artifcial intelligence April 2017 3
Dear reader,
Welcome to the second edition of our
Shifing Asia
series,
abiannual publication in which we identify major trends that
will shape our longer -term investment views over the next
5–10 years. In this issue, we address the topic of artifcial
intelligence (AI), and the profound implications that its
development and adoption will have on Asian societies and
the corporate sector in the years to come.
For most in Asia, AI in its most basic forms is already evident
in daily lives. Personalized product recommendations on
e-commerce platforms like Taobao or Flipkart and voice assis-
tants like Siri or Google Now are just a couple of examples.
Still, far-reaching changes lie ahead. With exponential growth
in computing power and favorable supply- side factors, like
the advent of advanced algorithms, a vast pool of indigenous
AI-related talent and massive government-funded infrastruc-
ture development, both the breadth and depth of AI adop-
tion in Asia is set to sharply accelerate in the coming decade.
We believe AI will become ubiquitous, much likeinter-
net-based devices are today, as machine intelligence soon
converges on human intelligence in the next phase of AI's
evolution. Every aspect of Asian life, spanning areas relating
to education, healthcare, entertainment, security, etc., will
likely be transformed.
In this report, we analyze the state of AI adoption in Asia
today, factors that put the region in a good state to capture
the upcoming opportunities, and the potential risks and
threats ahead. In the course of our work, we also sought the
insights of global AI leaders from IBM and Baidu that can be
found in interviews on pages 13–14 and 18–20 respectively.
In a dynamic and mostly youthful growth region like Asia, AI
entails signifcant longer-term implications for major stakehold-
ers, including investors, corporates, governments and society
at large. We think service industries could see signifcant trans-
formation and growth. Yet, the threat to mid-skilled jobs,
which comprises 69% of Asia's current workforce, means that
whole segments of society could face displacement from the
widespread adoption of AI technology.
The future is soon upon us. It is imperative that technolo-
gists, business leaders and governments work hand in hand
to embrace both the opportunities and challenges ahead –
and importantly, to forge a mutually prosperous future for
all. We hope you enjoy reading this report and welcome any
comments that you might have.
Foreword
Min Lan Tan
New technologies such as artifcial intelligence and big data will only
broaden the room of imagination for mankind.
– Jack Ma, Alibaba
Min Lan Tan
Head of APAC Investment Offce
4 April 2017 Shifing Asia: Artifcial intelligence
Executive summary
automation andconnectivity. We believe AI’s impact on Asia will be far-reach-
ing over the next few decades,creating an economic value between USD
1.8trn and USD 3trn a year by 2030 in the region, compared to a negligible
impact currently. In our view, fnancialservices, healthcare, manufacturing,
retail and transportation sectors will be the most afected by AI in Asia.
2015 to 2020, reaching USD 12.5bn by 2020. Aferwards, as AI becomes
mainstream, AI’s addressablemarket will signifcantly accelerate, in our
view, reaching revenues inthe tens ofbillions of US dollars by the end
of the next decade, and Asia should be a key revenuecontributor.
andemerging talent pool, a freedom from legacy assets and the massive
amount ofdata that is being collected across the region. However, Asia still
lags developed markets like the US and the UK in terms of innovation
and has not yet developed a robust AI-based ecosystem.
longterm. Thejobs most at risk of being made redundant are those that
involve routine and predictable tasks. AI presents the most risk to manufactur-
ing-driven economies like China, while services-driven economies like Hong
Kong, Singapore and India should be less afected. However, within Asia, AI
should also create many new categories of jobs, ranging in the millions; so the
net job losses should be far less and manageable, in our view.
its development in the aforementioned industries will likely sufer the conse-
quences, as pro-AI competitors and counterparts should eventually outstrip
their output and overall performance. Investors should therefore avoid
companies exposed to signifcant disruption from AI and embrace com-
panies with a strong technology focus in AI-related areas.
Theirrespective AI technologies are already addressing key challenges in the
region: IBM's Watson is helping doctors in India identify personalized treatment
options, and Baidu's Duer is pushing ahead speech recognition in China. While
the opportunities for job growth and lifestyle improvements are vast, both
interviewees agree that Asian public and private sectors need to embrace
AI to provide the optimal setting for talent and innovation to thrive.
occupations that require a high level of personalization, creativity and
crafsmanship, as these jobs will be less afected by AI. Regulators also need
to step up their eforts by seeking cooperation regionally and also by striking
abalance between promoting the adoption of AI and managing the downside
risks. With these recommendations, we believe the transition towards an
AI-based society would be smoother and a highly productive one.
Sundeep Gantori, analyst
“If artifcial
intelligence is the
’engine’ of the rocket
that takes us to the
next frontier, data is
the ’fuel’ that powers
the engine.”
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