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基于以上背景，本文试图从黑龙江省农行农户贷款信用风险分析的角度出
发，采取博弈模型法、文献法、案例法等方式，按照确定问题、分析原因、提
出对策的流程，依托模型得出结论，并结合文献理论和业务发展实际案例加以
论证
按照这一研究思路，本文首先以国内外各项理论研究为基础，明确农户贷
款存在的内外部信用风险，根据实际案例归纳信用风险问题，在业务发展背景
下细致分析黑龙江省农行农户贷款业务在发展过程需面对的各项挑战。继而利
用博弈论模型分析信用风险问题，将其成因归结为主观原因和客观原因两类原
因，对农户生产经营能力不足、信用意识淡薄、抗灾能力薄弱等一系列主观原
因进行分析，同时详述客观环境造成农户贷款出现信用风险的原因，而后从贷
款准入、业务调查、强化担保、创新模式和贷后管理等多个角度提出黑龙江省
农行农户贷款信用风险防范的内部对策，并围绕完善农村地区征信体系、三权
确权流转体系建设等热点问题，针对现有县域地区信用环境为相关部门提出建
议，以期进一步防范农户贷款信用风险，在实现银行商业化利润的同时优化县
域农户贷款的整体氛围，逐步解决农民“贷款难、贷款贵”的难题
关键词：农户贷款；信用风险；博弈论；中国农业银行；风险防范哈尔滨工业大学工商管理硕士学位论文
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Abstract
Along with the improvement degree of concern and support on the three rural
from all sectors of society in recent years, farmer loan, as an important means of
commercial support for agricultural production and management from financial
institution, improves its importance constantly. But in the process of business
development, the problem which the farmers&39; credit awareness is poor and the
farmer loan default rate is high has also plagued various financial institutions for a
long time, it is also the duty for Agricultural Bank of China Heilongjiang branch to
support the farmers with credit funds from its own social and political responsibility.
Therefore, how to the problem which not only to achieve the effective delivery of
farmer loan, help poverty precisely, promote agricultural production, reflecting the
value of the business, but also to control credit risk effectively, ensure the quality of
assets, control loan risk, achieve a healthy development puzzles the staff.
Based on the background above, this paper attempts to start from the
perspective of the credit risk management on farmer loan in Agricultural Bank of
China Heilongjiang branch, taking the game model method, literature method, case
method, etc., according to the process which is identifying problems, analyzing the
causes and deducing the countermeasures, then draw the conclusion based on the
model, And demonstrate the conclusion combined with the theory of literature and
business development of the actual cases.
According to the researching idea, this paper bases on the domestic and foreign
theoretical research firstly, clears the internal and external credit risk on farmer
loan,concludes the credit risk problem based on practical cases in order to analyze
various challenges faced by Agricultural Bank of China Heilongjiang branch on
farmer loan under the background of business development. To analyze the credit
risk problem, this paper uses the game theory to attribute the reasons to the
subjective and objective sides, then analyzes a series of subjective reasons such as
the lack of farmers&39; production and management ability and willingness, the
weakness of farmers&39; credit consciousness, the weakness of farmers&39; anti-disaster
capability and so on, at the same time, this paper also expounds the reasons of the
farmer loan credit risk caused by the objective environment. Then this paper puts哈尔滨工业大学工商管理硕士学位论文
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forward internal credit risk management countermeasures of farmer loan in
Agricultural Bank of China Heilongjiang branch from the loan access, business
survey, guarantee strengthening, innovation model, loan management and other
aspects, and focuses on the improvement of credit system in rural areas, three right
of ownership transfer system and other issues, to make recommendations in view of
the existing county regional credit environment for the relevant departments, in
order to control the credit risk of farmer loan further, optimize the overall
atmosphere of the county farmers loans in the realization of commercial bank profit,
then makes a way to solve the problem of “hard to get loan,expensive to get
loan”for the farmers step by step.
Keywords: Farmer loan, credit risk, game theory,Agricultural Bank of China,risk
prevention哈尔滨工业大学工商管理硕士学位论文
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目 录
摘要....... I
ABSTRACT.........II
第 1 章 绪 论...........- 1 -
1.1 课题来源..........- 1 -
1.2 课题研究的背景和意义......... - 1 -
1.2.1 课题研究背景.......- 1 -
1.2.2 课题研究意义.......- 3 -
1.3 国内外研究综述..........- 3 -
1.3.1 国外研究综述.......- 3 -
1.3.2 国内研究综述.......- 5 -
1.3.3 国内外研究情况简析...... - 8 -
第 2 章 黑龙江省农行农户贷款信用风险现状...- 10 -
2.1 黑龙江省农行农户贷款业务发展现状...... - 10 -
2.2 黑龙江省农行农户贷款信用风险总体现状..........- 11 -
2.2.1 风险管理整体现状.........- 11 -
2.2.2 贷款准入风险现状........ - 13 -
2.2.3 贷前调查风险现状........ - 14 -
2.2.4 贷后管理风险现状........ - 15 -
2.3 当前形势下面临的主要信用风险...- 16 -
2.4 本章小结........- 18 -
第 3 章 黑龙江省农行农户贷款的信用风险问题...........- 20 -
3.1 内部问题........- 20 -
3.1.1 农户农业生产经营不善- 20 -
3.1.2 借款人出现道德风险....- 20 -
3.1.3 农户收入水平出现较大变化....- 21 -
3.1.4 联保农户出借农户贷款资金....- 22 -
3.1.5 农户贷款管理不够到位- 23 -
3.2 外部问题........- 24 -
3.2.1 县域信用整体环境相对较差....- 24 -
3.2.2 农村三权确权工作速度较慢....- 24 -哈尔滨工业大学工商管理硕士学位论文
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3.2.3 政府对农户贷款参与力度不足
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