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基于CGE模型的房价波动对北京市区域发展的影响_MBA毕业论文DOC

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文本描述
摘要
近年来,房地产业成为了我国新兴的国民经济增长点,同时房地
产业关乎人民的基本生活需求,房价的上涨与下跌都引发社会大众的
热切关注,因此房价的变化也带来了多种社会问题。而2016年对于
北京房地产业来说无疑是重要的一年,从年初的一路猛涨,到930新
政后的迅速降温,再到年底的有所回暖,据统计,2016年全年的涨幅
几乎相当于2013年-2015年的总和。房地产业与国民经济中的其他
多个产业存在着复杂的联系,定量分析房地产价格变动对其他产业影
响能够更加客观地看待房地产业在国民经济中的地位,进而也能够对
房地产业的发展提供切实有效的建议

本文在只考虑房地产经营,以及同时考虑房地产经营及房地产开
发等两种情况下,分别构建了北京市区域可计算一般均衡(CGE)模
型,模拟了房地产价格上涨及下跌对微观及宏观经济的影响,得到如
下主要结论:(1)北京市房地产业的发展对其他各部门经济及宏观经
济均有显著的促进作用,其中房地产开发的促进作用明显大于房地产
经营,北京市仍需进一步发展房地产经营服务;(2)房地产价格变动
为正时能够带动其他部门经济及宏观经济的发展,房地产价格变动为
负时会阻碍其他部门经济及宏观经济的发展,其中房地产价格变动对
重工业、建筑业影响较大,对轻工业、农业影响较小;(3)房地产价
I
北京化工大学硕士学位论文
格波动越剧烈,对其他各部门经济及宏观经济的影响就越显著,因此
维持房地产业的平稳发展对于国民经济发展及社会稳定具有重要的
意义

关键词:可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,房地产价格,部门经济,宏观
经济
II
ABSTRACT
IMPACTS OF REAL ESTATE PRICE FLUCTUATION ON
BEIJING BASED ON COMPUTABLE GENRAL
EQUILIBRIUM MODEL
ABSTRACT
In recent years, the real estate industry has become the new growth
point of national economy in our country, at the same time, the basic living
needs of the real estate industry related people, prices rise and fall are
causing great concern to the public, so the price changes also brought many
social problems. In 2016 for the Beijing real estate industry is undoubtedly
an important year. According to statistics, in 2016 the annual increase is
almost equal to the sum of the total from 2013 to 2015. A number of other
industries in the real estate industry and the national economy are complex,
quantitative analysis of real estate price changes impact on other industries
to be more objective view of the real estate industry in the national
economy, and also can provide effective suggestions for the development
of real estate industry.
Considering only the real estate business, and also consider the real
estate business and real estate development and other two kinds of
situations, were constructed in Beijing City Regional computable general
equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the real estate prices fell and the
mi
北京化工大学硕士学位论文
influence on the micro and macro economy, get the following main
conclusions: (1) the Beijing real estate industry development of other
departments and macroeconomic had a significant positive effect, the real
estate development role is significantly greater than the real estate business,
Beijing city still needs the further development of the real estate business
services; (2) real estate price change is positive to promote the development
of other sectors of the economy and the macro economy, the real estate
price changes for the development of negative will hinder other sectors of
the economy and the macro economy, the real estate price changes have
great influence on the heavy industry, construction industry, light industry,
agriculture has little influence on; (3) The fluctuation of real estate price is
more and more important to the economy and macro economy of other
departments. Therefore, it is of great significance to maintain the stable
development of the real estate industry for the development of the national
economy and social stability.
KEY WORDS: computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, real estate
price, sector economy, macro economy
IV
目录
目录
绪论1.1研究背景与研宄意义1.1.1研究背景1. 1.2研究意义1.2研究内容与研宄方法1.2. 1研究内容1.2. 2研究方法1. 3本文的仓丨J新点第二章相关文献综述2. 1CGE模型相关文献综述2. 1. 1国外研究综述2. 1. 2国内研究综述2. 2房地产经济相关文献综述2. 2_ 1国外研究综述2.2.2国内研宄综述2. 3 8
第三章基于区域层面的CGE模型3. 1CGE模型概述3. 1. 1CGE模型的理论基础3. 1. 2CGE模型适用性分析3. 2基于区域层面的CGE模型3.2. 1生产模块3. 2. 2商品模块3. 2. 3机构模块3. 2. 4系统约束模块v
北京化工大学硕士学位论文
第四章北京市房地产价格波动对社会经济的影响分析
21
4. 1编制北京市社会核算矩阵
21
4. 1. 1北京市宏观的社会核算矩阵
21
4. 1. 2北京市细化的社会核算矩阵
25
4. 2区域CGE模型参数估计
25
4. 2. 1生产模块的参数估计
26
4. 2. 2商品模块的参数估计
30
4. 2. 3机构模块的参数估计
31
4. 3区域CGE模型求解
32
4_ 4第一种定义下的模拟结果分析
32
4. 4. 1房地产价格上涨对社会经济的影响分析
32
4. 4. 2房地产价格下跌对社会经济的影响分析
34
4. 5第二种定义下的模拟结果分析
37
4. 5. 1房地产价格上涨对社会经济的影响分析
37
4. 5. 2房地产价格下跌对社会经济的影响分析
39
五章结论及建¥
43
5.1研宄情况总结
43
5_2政策建议
44
5.3研宄展望
45
参考文献
47
麗 51
作者和导师简介
53
VI Contents
Contents
Chapterl Introduction1.1 Research background and significance1.1.1 Research background1.1.2 Research significance1.2 Research contents and research methods1.2.1 Research contents1.2.2 Research methods1.3 The innovation of this paperChapter2 Journals reviewed2.1 The journals reviewed of CGE model2.1.1 Review of foreign research2.1.2 Summary of domestic research2.2 The journals reviewed of real estate economy2.2.1 Review of foreign research2.2.2 Summary of domestic research2.3 SummaryChapter3 CGE model based on regional level3.1 Summary of CGE model3.1.1 Theoretical basis of CGE model3.1.2 Applicability analysis of CGE model3.2 CGE model based on regional level3.2.1 Production module3.2.2 Commodity module3.2.3 Mechanism module3.2.4 System constraint moduleVII
北京化工大学硕士学位论文
Chapter4 Analysis of the impact of Beijing real estate price fluctuation
on macro economy and sector economy
21
4.1 The establishment of Beijing social accounting matrix
21
4.1.1 Beijing macro social accounting matrix
21
4.1.2 Beijing microcosmic social accounting matrix
25
4.2 Parameter estimation of regional CGE model
25
4.2.1 Parameter estimation of production module
26
4.2.2 Parameter estimation of commodity module
30
4.2.3 Parameter estimation of mechanism module
31
4.3 Region CGE model solution
32
4.4 Analysis of simulation results under the first definition
32
4.4.1 The impact of rising real estate prices on various industries
32
4.4.2 The impact of falling real estate prices on various industries
34
4.5 Analysis of simulation results under the second definition
37
4.5.1 The impact of rising real estate prices on various industries
37
4.5.2 The impact of falling real estate prices on various industries
39
Chapter5 Conclusion
43
5.1 Summary of research
43
5.2 The recomm
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