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文本描述
Projected U.S. 2016/17 corn food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) is raised 50 million
bushels this month to 6,845 million, reflecting continuing strong ethanol production
driven largely by robust exports to Brazil.Total use is unchanged from last month,
reflecting an offsetting 50-million-bushel reduction in projected feed and residual use
based on greater corn used to produce ethanol, expected greater sorghum feeding, and
indicated disappearance during 2015/16.
Global coarse grain production in 2016/17 is forecast up 12.7 million tons this month to a
record 1,341.7 million. The major contributors to the increase are Brazil, South Africa,
India, and Argentina for corn and Australia for barley. Brazil corn production is raised 5.0
million tons to 91.5 million, reflecting higher projections for both first- and second-crop
corn. Export prospects for Brazilian, Argentine, and South African corn are revised up to
reflect changes in supplies and competitiveness. U.S corn exports are unchanged this
month as a sharp increase in corn supplies in both Brazil and Argentina is expected to
intensify competition facing U.S. exports during the latter part of 2016/17.
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.JulyAug.
U.S. corn exports
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
Source: USDA, U.S. Census Bureau, February 2017
Grain Inspections
.
.
Mil. metric tons
Feed Outlook
Tom Capehart
tcapehart@ers.usda.gov
Olga Liefert
oliefert@ers.usda.gov
U.S. Corn Food, Seed, and Industrial Use
Raised on Improved Ethanol Prospects
Economic
Research
Service
Situation and
Outlook
FDS-17c
March 13,
2017
The next release is
April 13, 2017.
-
Approved by the
World Agricultural
Outlook Board.
Feed and Residual Use Lowered
Projected U.S. 2016/17 feed and residual use for the four feed grains (corn, sorghum, barley, and oats) and wheat
is lowered 0.9 million metric tons this month to 155.4 million, on a September-August marketing year basis.Corn
feed and residual is lowered 1.3 million tons from last month’s forecast, while sorghum and oats projections are
higher.For 2015/16, slight changes were made in feed and residual projections based largely on revisions to
calendar year 2016 in USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
Grain Crushings and Co-Products
Production 2016 Summary
report.This month’s projection is 16.8 million tons higher than feed and residual of
138.6 million tons in 2015/16.
Grain Consuming Animal Units Projected Higher
Slight changes in U.S. poultry inventory projections raise grain consuming animal units (GCAU) this month,
resulting in 2016/17 projected GCAUs of 95.84 million units, up from 95.79 million last month and 1.7 million
units higher than the 2015/16 estimate of 94.1 million.Feed and residual use per GCAU is projected at 1.62 tons
this month, down slightly from last month and 0.15 tons higher than 2015/16.26101418
87/881990/9193/9496/9799/002002/0305/0608/0911/1214/15
Feed and residual
Exports
Other food, seed, and industrial uses
Ethanol
Ending stocks
Figure1
Note: Marketing years 2015/16 and 2016/17 are projected.
Source:USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board,
WASDE.
U.S. corn utilization
Billion bu
Domestic OutlookFeed Outlook / FDS-17c / March 13, 2017
Economic Research Service, USDA
Corn for Ethanol Boosts Food, Seed, and Industrial Use
Corn used to produce fuel ethanol is raised 50 million bushels to 5,400 million this month on higher use reflected
in NASS’s
Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production
report and continuing strong weekly production data
from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).Weekly production data indicate February ethanol production
on a per day basis to be just slightly below the record level hit during January. In recent months, exports to Brazil
have been above expectations.For the September-January period, total shipments have reached 2.1 million liters,
of which 0.8 million have gone to Brazil.Total FSI is now forecast at 6,845 million bushels, up 50 million
bushels from last month.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
06/0708/092010/1112/1314/1516/17
Billion bu
Figure 2
U.S. corn feed and residual use
Corn1st Qtr
Sources:USDA, Economic Research Service,
Feed Grains Database
and USDA, World
Agricultural Outlook Board,
WASDE.20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.JulyAug.
U.S. fuel ethanol exports
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
Source: USDC, U.S. Census Bureau.
1,000gal.
Figure3Feed Outlook / FDS-17c / March 13, 2017
Economic Research Service, USDA
Estimated ethanol use for 2015/16 was raised 17.6 million bushels as a result of revisions by NASS published in
the
Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production 2016 Summary.
In addition, estimated corn used for
sweeteners and starch was lowered 6.2 million bushels.As a result, total 2015/16 FSI is raised 11.4 million
bushels to 6,646 million, up from 6,601 in 2014/15.With stocks and trade known, total use is unchanged as the
higher FSI is offset by lower feed and residual use.
For 2016/17, feed and residual use is lowered 50 million bushels to 5,550 million as a result of greater corn used
for ethanol, higher sorghum feeding, and indicated feed and residual use during 2015/16.With the export
projection unchanged, total disappearance is projected unchanged from last month’s projection at 14,620 million
bushels.
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
1,400
1,450
1,500
2014/15 I2014/15 II2014/15 III2014/15 IV2015/16 I2015/16 II2015/16 III2015/16 IV2016/17 I
Million bu
Figure 4
U.S. corn for ethanol use by quarter
Source: USDA, National AgriculturalStatisticsService,
Grains Crushings and Co-ProductsProduction.2468Ja
n.00
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n.
01
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n.
02
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n.
02
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n.
03
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04
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05
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06
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07
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n.
08
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n.
09
Ja
n.Ja
n.Ja
n.Ja
n.Ja
n.Ja
n.Ja
n.Dol./bu
Sources:USDA, Economic Research Service,
Feed Grains Database
and USDA, Agricultural
Marketing Service, http://marketnews.usda.gov/portal/lg.
Louisiana Gulf
Central Illinois
Figure5
Monthlycorn(yellow#2)pricesforCentralIllinoisandLouisianaGulfFeed Outlook / FDS-17c / March 13, 2017
Economic Research Service, USDA
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