Ipsos Business Consulting Build · Compete · Grow THE VIETNAM SWINE MARKET A Bumpy Road Ahead The informaon contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any parcular individual or enty. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and mely informaon, there can be no guarantee that such informaon is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will connue to be accurate in the future. No one should act upon such informaon without appropriate professional advice aer a thorough examinaon of the parcular situaon. In order to produce the paper, the consultant team took into account sow herd populaon of integrated farms, commercial farms and backyard farms. Total hog supply was calculated considering dierent aspects governing the hog outputs of each type of farms including sow producvity, survival rates by stages of growing piglet, and number of piglet consumpon by each year. Total market demand was studied based on various sources from available data to interviews with Key Opinion Leaders. Produced data was rened throughout many rounds of discussion with market experts, government ocers and senior market managers, technical managers in leading feed and animal health companies in Vietnam. For the purpose of the paper, integrated farms are referred as organizaons that have their business in the enre value chain from producing feed to farming operaon and, for some cases in Vietnam, processing foods. Commercial farms are dened as farms that have been upgraded with modern facilies, operated with structure as a company and applied modern farming pracce with medium to large scale producvity. Backyard farms are those remaining. reproduced without the prior wrien consent of Ipsos. CONTENTS Introducon 2013 - 2016: Vietnam’s Hog Fever Head Over Heels for the China Market 2016: A Tipping Point 2017 and Beyond: A Gloomy Outlook 2018: Fast Forward Hidden Opportunies Business Unit Strategy About Ipsos Business Consulng Contact Us ipsosconsulng Ipsos Business Consulng58111315 The Vietnam Swine Market: A Bumpy Road Ahead INTRODUCTION In the months from November 2016 to July 2017, Vietnamese swine farms faced increasing challenges due to a steep decline in the farm gate price. Many have argued that the main culprit for this loss in income is China’s sharp reducon in the import of live hogs. However, as the Chinese swine industry is currently restructuring to improve its internaonal compeveness and lessen its reliance on foreign pork imports, the queson remains for Vietnamese farms: Will the farm gate price rise once again In this paper, Ipsos Business Consulng explores the prospects for Vietnam’s swine industry in 2017 and beyond, by examining the swine supply versus demand during the period 2013-16. We have exhausvely collected and analysed historical data of local pork consumpon, as well as ocial and undocumented exports, to invesgate the trends that are likely to inuence swine output. We also discuss the oversupply of swine and its impacts in 2016 based on primary and secondary research with mulple industry experts as well as swine farmers. From this analysis, we examine two potenal scenarios facing Vietnam’s swine industry this year. Collecvely, the a solid industry outlook which can serve as a useful input in developing their future strategies.The Vietnam Swine Market: A Bumpy Road Ahead Historically imports had a minimal share of total hog supply in the Vietnam market, represenng only 0.1% of the total over the years from 2013 to 2015. However, the volume of imported pork increased dramacally from 5,482 tonnes in 2015 to 40,872 tonnes in 2016 (equivalent to 583,886 hogs) raising the proporon of imports to 1.06% of total supply. This escalaon of imports can mainly be aributed to the European Union Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) going into eect in early 2016, as they eecvely eliminated the tax on imported meat. Several EU countries, notably Italy, Ireland, the Netherlands and Germany, have all started exporng pork to Vietnam due to the impact of EVFTA. Swine farming has played an integral part in Vietnam’s agriculture, as pork producon comprises approximately two-thirds of total meat producon. Major epizoocs of FMD, PRRS, porcine high fever disease and others from 2006-10 caused devastang losses to the Vietnamese swine sector and raised extreme concern among consumers. The industry rebounded aer the government set iniaves to enforce vaccinaon against the deadly FMD and PRRS diseases. Between 2013 and 2016, Vietnam’s local hog populaon has grown at a faster pace than the sow populaon, as its CAGR of 11.0 percent has led to a supply of 54.46 million head or the equivalent of approximately 4.01 million tonnes of carcass weight. This suggests a dramac increase in the number of sows as well as improvement in sow producvity, as small-scale farms’ sow producvity reached nearly 17 hogs per sow per year in 2016 while the sow producvity of commercial farms and integrated farms was 20 and 22 hogs per sow per year respecvely. 2013-2016: VIETNAM’S HOG FEVER Vietnam's Total Hog Supply, 2013-2016Note: study. to ensure an accurate reecon of the market. For instance, sow producvity is 22 hogs per year and survival rate is 87% for integrated farms. 39.8 43.4 46.6 20132014 Local produconImport 20152016 54.5 Unit: mn head0.6 CAGR 11.4% 。。。以上简介无排版格式，详细内容请下载查看